### 商科代写|计量经济学代写Econometrics代考|ECOM20001

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• Statistical Inference 统计推断
• Statistical Computing 统计计算
• (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
• Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
• Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

## 商科代写|计量经济学代写Econometrics代考|Using Disaggregated Data: Accounting for the Good

To complement our previous country-level results, let us now estimate ERPT into import prices at a disaggregated level, using the two-digit level of disaggregation in the SITC classification. Analyzing ERPT at the good level allows us to account for the fact that the shift in the composition of imports towards goods whose prices are less sensitive to exchange rate changes has contributed to the “seemingly” pass-through decline. The corresponding results are reported in Table $5.9$

As shown, ERPT is found to be quite high or even complete in most sectors. These findings again illustrate the importance of controlling for intra-EU trade in assessing the effect of exchange rate changes to import prices. ${ }^{10}$ However, the estimates strongly vary depending on the type of goods. The highest ERPT coefficients are generally obtained for goods belonging to SITC 8, SITC 7 and SITC 2 which are the sectors the most commodity-intensive. On the whole, the exchange rate effect on the prices of imported goods comes principally through its indirect effect on commodity prices: in commodity-intensive sectors, foreign producers have strong market power and face very weak domestic competition, and, consequently, the world price passed on when the exchange rate fluctuates. The declining share of commodity-intensive goods for which ERPT is higher than for other goods, may thus explain the declining pass-through reported in several studies (see, e.g. López-Villavicencio and Mignon (2017) and the references therein). For some industries, such as those concerned with manufactured goods (SITC 6), the pass-through strongly differs between countriesthe value of ERPT degree for Belgium being about two times that of France. ${ }^{11}$ This can be explained by the fact that these industries are more oriented towards product differentiation, leading to distinct ERPT degrees in different countries.

## 商科代写|计量经济学代写Econometrics代考|Accounting for Globalization at the Good Level

Tables $6,7,8,9$ and 10 display the estimation results at the disaggregated level of Eq. (2). $\Lambda s$ shown, there is no clear-cut evidence regarding how global factors affect the way foreign exporters pass-through increasing costs to their prices. Indeed, when significant, the interactive term mostly indicates that higher trade openness or lower

tariffs increase the ERPT in some cases. However, higher intra-industry trade and, above all, more regional trade reduce the ERPT. Chinese import share, in turn, seems to play no major role in the pricing decisions of foreign exporters.

More in detail, regarding trade openness, the interactive term is positive and significant for goods belonging to SITC 2 (crude materials, inedible, except fuels) for all the countries, SITC 4 (animal and vegetable oils) except in France, and SITC 7 (machinery and transport equipment) for France. In those cases, greater competition is thus associated with higher ERPT, in line with the arguments developed by Dornbusch (1987) and Benigno and Faia (2016).

Turning to intra-industry trade, when significant, the associated coefficient is mostly negative. This means that for the concerned sectors, higher intra-industry trade tends to lower ERPT. This result is consistent with the fact that for sectors characterized by high levels of intra-industry trade, firms react in terms of product differentiation, leading to lower ERPT. A typical example is given by the German case for which machinery and transport equipment sector plays a central role worldwide in the sense that the negative sign reflects the aim of Germany to preserve its market shares.
Our findings also illustrate that Chinese firms’ market penetration has not caused a structural change in ERPT, the interactive coefficient being rarely significant, except in some special cases such as manufactured goods and miscellaneous manufactures in France and Germany, which correspond to sectors in which China is highly competitive. $^{12}$ This means that an increase in the share of China tends to weaken ERPT, reflecting a threat from competition with China in these sectors. Those findings may reflect the wish of domestic firms to preserve their market power and protect against foreign competition in these particular sectors.

## 商科代写|计量经济学代写Econometrics代考|The General Model

The model embodies several theoretical ideas from the Keynesian tradition of an economic equilibrium determined by demand factors, from the Wicksellian view of a link between the interest rate gap and the business cycle, and Minsky’s approach ö the rolé ơf the financial cyclẻ in determining the business cyclé.

A natural interest rate is considered as a benchmark for monetary policy and is determined by both potential growth and short-term determinants. A short-term determinant is, for instance, consumer’s rate of preference, while long-run determinants refer, for example, to technological changes or demographic factors, which are both key determinants of potential growth. Unlike the original suggestion by Wicksell, the natural rate is not considered here as a direct determinant of the inflation gap. In the author’s reasoning, the economy was assumed to be permanently at its steady-state level and, therefore, any gap between the central bank’s nominal interest rate and the natural rate of interest caused inflationary pressure or deflation. As is known, the Wicksell approach was extended by the Stockholm school during the $1930 s$ and the natural rate was conceptualized to build a theory of the business cycle. Differences between the nominal and natural rates cause a credit expansion or restriction and this in turn cause increases or decreases in output through changes in private demand. The impact to inflation comes then through a Phillips curve. In some recent models of potential growth, the interest rate gap directly enters as an explanatory variable of the output-gap [see Laubach and Williams (2003)]. Here, we adopt the Minsky’s view of cumulative processes in the credit sector as a key source of output fluctuations. Banks and lenders’ behavior, through changes in the interest rates of loans tighten or loose credit availability. The interest rate gap also induces speculative investment. Therefore, our model attempts to capture the Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis as follows. The output-gap (defined as the gap between the observed GDP and potential GDP) depends upon monetary and financial sector imbalances, and these imbalances are related to the interest rate gap.

We consider a simple model with backward looking expectations. This assumption can be criticized given the importance of inflation expectations in the determi-nation of the real interest rates and with regards to the fact that interest rate rules with forward looking output-gap and inflation-gap have been extensively used in the literature. Further, one may argue that a forward looking Phillips curve better fits the new Keynesian theories of price determination. We are aware of these limits to our framework. Though these views have many advocates, we motivate the use of backward looking expectations models as follows.

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