### 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|ECON3057

statistics-lab™ 为您的留学生涯保驾护航 在代写产业经济学Industrial Economics方面已经树立了自己的口碑, 保证靠谱, 高质且原创的统计Statistics代写服务。我们的专家在代写产业经济学Industrial Economics代写方面经验极为丰富，各种代写产业经济学Industrial Economics相关的作业也就用不着说。

• Statistical Inference 统计推断
• Statistical Computing 统计计算
• (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
• Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
• Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Growth forecast and scenario analysis of industrial economics

With the current technological level, China’s industrial economics will be highly likely to maintain a slow-down growth rate from the second half of 2016 to the first half of 2017 , providing the current monetary and fiscal policies remain unchanged. According to the model prediction, the growth rate of China’s industrial economics will reduce to $5.7 \%$ at the end of 2016 and to $5.6 \%$ in June 2017 . Under the influence of moving holidays, obvious fluctuations will occur in industrial growth in January and February 2017 ; in remaining months of 2017 , the industrial economics will operate smoothly.

Benchmark: The quantities and qualities of labor force remain unchanged; the fixed asset investment maintain current development trend; the technical level remains unchanged; and the fiscal and monetary policies remain unchanged.

Scenario 1: The quantities and qualities of labor force remain unchanged; the fixed asset investment maintain current development trend; the technical level remains unchanged; and the fiscal and monetary policy strength is $20 \%$ lower than the current level.

Scenario 2: The quantities and qualities of labor force remain unchanged; the fixed asset investment maintain current development trend; the technical level remains unchanged; and the fiscal and monetary policy strength increases $20 \%$ over the current level.

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Qunhui Huang and Hangyan Zhang

With implementation of a series of policies including the supple-side structural reform, the national economy operated quite well and stabilized in slow growth and slow recovery in the first half of 2016 . However, the recovery seems not so optimistic in the pessimistic context of the international situation that might complicate and intensify China’s industrial economy and might lead to heavier downturn pressure on economic operation in the second half of 2016 as a number of contradictions and risks stand out. In this case, we need to seize the new normal opportunity for economic development, steady growth by taking effective measures against various risks and challenges, promote reform and transformation, break institutional barriers and combine long-term policies with short-term ones, macro policies with micro ones and supply management with demand management so as to pave the way for healthy development of China’s industrial economics.

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Focus on Steady Growth and Maintain Relative

Sharp fluctuations in economic growth are usually traceable back to sharp fluctuations in macro policies. As China’s industrial economics are currently “stabilizing in slow growth”, sharp fluctuations in macro policies should be avoided as taboos. In the first year of the “13th Five-Year Plan” $(2016-20)$, we need to maintain relative stability and continuity of macro policies, minimize frequent short-term macroeconomic control, deepen the concept of “interval control”, give play to the decisive roles of resource allocation in market and shift strategic focus to reform and adjustment of economic structure so that macro policies are authentic in promoting steady growth.

Firstly, we need to stabilize and avoid sharp fluctuations in real estate market. Such actions will be of great importance to economic growth and social stability. During the supply-side reform, de-stocking policies might be most intensive in real estate market; in just two dozen days since February 2016, five bombshell measures were issued by more than ten ministries and committees including the Central Bank of China and National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), almost one real estate policy being issued per week. In such a context, the government should be active to direct and guide the expectations and behaviors of commercial banks and social public by means of various policy tools to prevent against sharp fluctuations in real estate market and insure stable, healthy development of the real estate market.

Then, we need to continue with proactive fiscal policy and steady monetary policy. Under the pressure of continuous economic downturn, we will implement proactive fiscal policy for tax abatement and increase of social security expenditure, provide support for enterprises in technical transformation and innovation investment and give play to the leading role of governmental investment, guide funds to flow into fields that may generate higher investment efficiency, guarantee implementation of state-approved projects, increase expenditure in unemployment insurance and low-income population, maintain social stability, and create a macro environment to the benefit of structural adjustment, exercise steady monetary policy, duly cut down on interest and reserve and bring down enterprises’ financing cost pursuant to economic recovery; in addition, relevant authorities should delivery policy signals in time to market so as to stabilize expectation and confidence on the stock market.

Finally, we need to renovate the methods of macroeconomic regulation and control, strengthen interval control and opportunistic control, make the best of policy tools such as industry, investment and price as well as the fiscal and monetary policies, and take measures for structural reform and especially for supply-side structural reform to prevent all risks and create a favorable environment for economic development.

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Qunhui Huang and Hangyan Zhang

2016年上半年，随着供给侧结构性改革等一系列政策的落地，国民经济运行良好，稳中求进，缓慢回升。但在国际形势悲观的背景下，中国工业经济可能复杂化加剧，2016年下半年经济运行下行压力加大，诸多矛盾和风险凸显，复苏似乎并不乐观。在这种情况下，我们要抓住经济发展新常态机遇，稳增长，采取有效措施应对各种风险挑战，推进改革转型，打破体制机制障碍，实现长短期政策相结合，

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