### 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|ECON4438

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• Statistical Inference 统计推断
• Statistical Computing 统计计算
• (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
• Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
• Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Continue to Deepen Supply-Side Reform and Stimulate New Vitality of Industrial Growth

The supply-side reform’s emphasis on decisive roles of market in resource allocation aims to release new demands and create new supplies; on the one hand, market is supposed to release overcapacity and create new economic growth points, and on the other, the use is made of innovation to form effective supplies with higher quality and stimulate new demands. The supply-side reform is a specific remedy for the currently existing economic issues in China, a new method for China’s economic reform and an effective action to vitalize industrial growth.
Firstly, we need to focus on release of excess capacity and elimination of “zombie” enterprises. The existing excess capacity, “zombie” and loss-making enterprises and low-efficiency or even inefficient assets are consuming huge quantity of resources and hinder transformation and upgrading of industrial structure. The Central Economic Working Conference stated expressly that top priority of supply-side structural reform in 2016 would be given to active and prudent dissolution of excess capacity and release of valuable resource elements from enterprises featuring severely excess capacity and limited space for growth and the “zombie” enterprises so as to improve effective supply and create new productivity by straightening out the supply side. To dissolve excess capacity, the Central Government, local government, authorities and enterprises must exercise strict control over incremental productive capacity. In particular, the local government is not supposed to increase investment blindly for local economic development or follow the suit simply because of huge potential in emerging industrials; instead, it should solve this problem at its source. The existing excess productive capacities may be dissolved by carrying out structural optimization or adjustment, promoting enterprise reorganization and M\&A, improving inventory warning mechanism and perform real-time monitoring over change in business inventories. Further solutions include: creating external demands and encouraging “go out” of China’s industrial capital to promote capacity output under the opportunity of the Belt and Road Initiative, accelerating reform of liberalization of production elements, breaking the government-led distribution mode of land and resources, giving full play to the regulating roles of market mechanism, and guiding allocation of capital and labor in all industrial sectors so as to dissolve excess capacity. As excess capacity is a systematic and long-term issue requiring both short-term administrative intervention and long-term governance according to the law, we need to improve the system of policy, laws and regulations for dissolution of excess capacity, and give full play to fiscal, financial and tax roles in the de-capacity process; accelerate consolidation, reorganization or bankruptcy of “zombie” enterprises or low-efficiency and inefficient assets, and make reasonable relocation of personnel and disposal of assets; actively guide upstream and downstream industrial organizations of the “zombie” enterprises to transform into high value added segments, or accept merging and reorganization of competitive industrial enterprises; and perfect the delisting mechanism of “zombie” enterprises to make adjustment and optimization of industrial structure, providing that the ecological equilibrium of these industrial organizations are maintained.

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Expand Effective Demands and Further Exploit

Firstly, we need to make endeavors to promote supply-side reform, but it does not necessarily mean the quit of demand management; instead, implementation of the supply-side reform requires appropriate enlargement of aggregate demands; the supply-side reform and the demand management should promote and cooperate with each other. Since 2015 , obstructions have emerged in economic growth measures through expansion of investment and net export volume. The stabilizing and rising consumer goods market is unable to drive industrial growth, but the explosion of various emerging industries due to implementation of the innovation-driven strategy has brought about new possibilities for consumption and investment; as a result, the scale effect was replaced by consumption upgrading and investment efficiency in promoting industrial growth. In addition, the implementation of various regional strategies has provided unprecedented demand space for consumption and trade. In the second quarter of 2016 , more effective demands were exploited to promote industrial growth.

Secondly, we need to expand and upgrade consumption. On the one hand, we should focus on development of new technologies and new products, encourage innovation of commercial forms, create new demands by means of new supply, and direct consumers towards intelligent, green and healthy consumption. As the “imitative” consumption period comes to an end, individualized and diversified demand has become the mainstream consumption pattern; therefore, in addition to effort in new commercial forms, we need to make efforts on improvement product quality and grade to accommodate consumers’ individualized demands of products, and push consumption towards some new industries. On the other hand, we need to expand consumers’ demands by virtue of inter-regional collaboration strategies. As China’s economy develops, the consumption potentialities in central and western regions have been exploited to some extent. The current inter-regional collaboration strategy plays an important role in promoting consumption in the underdeveloped central and western regions. The “Yangtze River Economic Belt” is a significant action of China’s combination of regional coordination and opening up in the new period. This is an unprecedented policy that links together the eastern, central and western regions, and also a solid step to promote construction of inland economic belts. The western region of China is covered by the Belt and Road Initiative while the developed eastern region will take active part in the strategy by economic ties with central and western regions, and will promote inter-regional interactions through market force. All these will further exploit the consumption potentialities in the central and western regions. Meanwhile, “people foremost” is core to the new-type urbanization; more and more production factors such as rural population, information, capital and technologies that are flooding into cities will generate huge aggregation effect and scale effect in these cities to achieve better development of production factors market, especially the labor market; besides, rural laborers will get better paid in cities and will also improve incomes of urban residents and promote upgrading of consumption structure. Therefore, urbanization is an important means to expand consumption and promote consumption upgrading while the construction of the “Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration” and “Yangtze River Economic Belt” provides infinite opportunity for new-type urbanization. The inter-regional connection of public services, social insurance system and transportation will become the main market for future urbanization. To stimulate consumption, we need to make the best of inter-regional collaborative strategy to drive urbanization in the central and western regions; besides, we need to take active measures to optimize consumption environment, standardize market competition to facilitate transition of market competition from quantitative expansion and price competition to quality and differentiation competition, promote service-oriented development of manufacturing enterprises, protect consumers’ rights and interests, accelerate infrastructure construction in the field of consumer goods, and implement the “broadband China” strategy.

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|International Industries in the First Half of 2016

In the first half of 2016 , the world economy was still subject to a deep adjustment period after the financial crisis. Global manufacturing PMI index dropped from $50.1 \%$ in April to $50 \%$ in May 2016 . The industrial economics of major economies recovered slowly in a zigzag way and unevenly in main countries and regions, indicated significant uncertainty in industrial economics operation. In general, developed economies recovered faster than emerging economies did.

A weak recovery continued in developed countries, such as European countries and the United States. The American economy operated fairly well. Due to trade and government investment in consumption that offset slump in consumption, the year-on-year growth rate of American economy was modified to rise by $1.1 \%$, higher than the desired value and the last modified value. The American people’s confidence in economy was enhanced by the constantly recovering labor market, the higher employment rate and lower price index. The bounce-off of consumer spending in the second quarter will further promote American GDP growth. In addition, the American industrial production improved markedly. The overall production index (seasonally adjusted) entered year-on-year positive growth status, and the manufacturing PMI has climbed above the threshold since March 2016 , which kept ascending on a monthly basis in the first half year and hit a new high in June, so its manufacturing industry was expected to flourish; due to external environment’s influence, however, the American trade volume remained in sharp fluctuations, for which there was still large space for improvement. The Eurozone economy recovered slowly, with first quarter’s GDP growth rate higher than was expected. The Eurozone industrial production also recovered persistently. The manufacturing PMI in June was the highest this year, which indicated a recovering trend of Eurozone industry. Currently, the inflation pressure was slightly alleviated and generally better than market expectation, and the inflation that had lasted for four months eventually carne to an end in June. Eurozone saw a good trend of employment as the unemployment rates kept descending; due to British referendum on departure from the EU and its external environment, however, the Eurozone trade was not as optimistic as expected. Japan suffered a slow economic recovery,

regardless of its first quarter’s GDP growth rate higher than was expected. Other data indicated that Japanese economy remains flat and that continual fluctuations occurred in its industrial output, e.g. PMI in March stayed below the threshold, inflation risk remained and import/export trade volume kept shrinking.

Among major emerging economies, Brazil’s economy and industrial production continued shrinking, but the shrinking amplitude slowed down dramatically; despite a slight decline in the second quarter, Brazil’s PMI remained below the threshold in the first half of 2016 , with a rising unemployment rate and inflation. In the first quarter, South Africa’s economic growth rate went down significantly; the growth rate of industrial production fluctuated drastically; though the PMI began recovering up to the threshold in March, there was still uncertainty in its economic recovery as its inflation deteriorated and foreign trade fluctuated obviously. In comparison, India’s economy recovered more steadily, regardless of its sluggish industrial growth. In the first quarter of 2016 , India’s GDP grew $7.95 \%$ year on year, higher than the average of all quarters in 2015 , indicating a better recovering trend of India’s economy. Since the year of 2016 , India’s PMI maintained above the threshold; the decreasing amplitude of its foreign trade kept going down and improving steadily. Due to the declining international oil price, Russia’s economy continued with the downturn; industrial production remained sluggish, regardless of a slightly positive turnabout. In the first half of 2016 , Russia’s PMI basically remained below the threshold; the unemployment rate went up somewhat, but the inflation went down markedly and foreign trade improved to some extent. It was clear that as compared with developed economies, major emerging economies were faced with a more difficult problem in economic recovery. In the first half of 2016 , the general economic situation of developed economies seemed much better than aforesaid emerging economies.

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|International Industries in the First Half of 2016

2016年上半年，世界经济仍处于金融危机后的深度调整期。全球制造业 PMI 指数从50.1%四月至50%2016 年 5 月。主要经济体产业经济回升缓慢，主要国家和地区呈现曲折态势，反映产业经济运行存在较大不确定性。总体而言，发达经济体的复苏速度快于新兴经济体。

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