经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|ECON1002

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• Statistical Inference 统计推断
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• (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
• Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
• Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|A more complete Keynesian model

This section provides the algebra for a more complete Keynesian model as depicted in Figure 2.5. This section is optional, but it does provide a more realistic picture of how Keynesian models are formulated for forecasting and analysis purposes. The model is based on the fundamental equation from Chapter 1 :
$$\mathrm{Y}=\mathrm{C}+\mathrm{I}+\mathrm{G}+\mathrm{X}$$
All variables are in real terms. The Keynesian model includes an equation for each of the four components of real GDP. Simple versions of the equations are used for illustration.
Consumption function $\mathrm{C}=\mathrm{C}{0}+\mathrm{b}(\mathrm{Y}-\mathrm{T})$, where $\mathrm{T}$ is taxes paid. Consumption is a linear function of income after taxes. Tax function $\mathrm{T}=\mathrm{tY}$, where $\mathrm{t}$ is the tax rate. Taxes are a constant fraction of income. Investment function $\quad \mathrm{I}=\mathrm{I}{0}-\mathrm{hr}$, where $\mathrm{r}$ is the interest rate.

Investment is a negative function of the interest rate. How is the interest rate determined? In Figure 2.5, it is determined by the supply of and demand for money. The supply of money is a given (by the monetary authorities) and the demand for money is
$$\mathrm{M}{\mathrm{d}}=\mathrm{M}{0}-\mathrm{mr} \text {. }$$
So with money demand equal to money supply, $M_{d}=M_{s}$,
$$\mathrm{r}=\left(\mathrm{M}{0}-\mathrm{M}{s}\right) / \mathrm{m} \text {. }$$
An increase in the money supply reduces the interest rate by $1 / \mathrm{m}$, the inverse of the slope of the money demand function. In this version of the Keynesian model, the solution for the interest rate will be plugged in.
Government spending on goods and services $\quad G=G_{0}$
Government spending is taken as given outside the model.
Net exports
$\mathrm{X}=\mathrm{E}-\mathrm{F}$, where $\mathrm{E}$ is exports and $\mathrm{F}$ is imports.
Exports
$\mathrm{E}=\mathrm{E}{0}$ Exports are taken as given outside the model. Imports $$F=F{0}+f(Y-T)$$
Imports increase with income after taxes, where $f$ is the marginal propensity to import.

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Summary of Keynesian theory

This chapter has outlined Keynesian macroeconomic theory as Keynes himself presented it. Keynes’s purpose was to develop a coherent theory that was consistent with the world as he found it – in severe depression with little apparent movement towards self-correction. His view was that the job of the economist is to provide the economic theory that works for the existing state of the world. He had disinterest in exploring all logical possibilities. It was apparent to Keynes that the private economy in depression was not able to bring itself back to anything close to full employment and income at its potential level. His theory shows why this was so. His theory also had clear policy implications, which he did not discuss at length in the General Theory. If effective demand is not forthcoming from the private economy, then the government must step in and provide the needed stimulus directly. Monetary policy might be able to bring about a reduction in the interest rate, but Keynes was not optimistic about the effectiveness of monetary policy at increasing effective demand in depression conditions. Public works expenditures would be needed. Nevertheless, as Rauchway (2015) documents, Keynes advised President Roosevelt to abandon the gold standard and pursue a policy of increasing the supply of money during the Great Depression to halt the deflation and start prices rising. And what was not needed was a cut in money wages and prices. For Keynes, holding money wages constant was a policy recommendation. A general reduction in money wages and prices would indeed increase the real stock of money, which might in turn bring about an increase in effective demand. But any such general reduction in money wages and prices was bound to be painful, contentious, and totally unnecessary.

Keynes’s ability to adapt his economic thinking to the situation was illustrated brilliantly in 1940 in the short pamphlet How to Pay for the War. Britain’s budget starting in 1939 included massive expenditures for the military, so the problem was not too little effective demand, but too much. Britain had paid for World War I by printing money, and prices had quadrupled. Britain’s people had paid for this war through great effort and sacrifice, and the “inflation tax.” Everyone recognized that a repeat performance would not be satisfactory. A straightforward Keynesian solution was sharply higher taxes on the general public. However, Keynes recognized that simply raising the income tax rate would mean that the British people would be called upon to work much harder with no reward. His proposal was to have a graduated temporary increase in the income tax and a program of compulsory savings. The compulsory savings would be credited to interest-earning individual accounts that would be repaid after the war to reward the public and to help pull the economy through an anticipated post-war recession. The Keynes plan was widely discussed and admired, but not adopted. The Treasury opted for massive borrowing and rationing.

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Paul Samuelson weighs in

Paul Samuelson, who is regarded generally as the most important academic economist of the 20 th century, was an early convert to Keynesian theory. He set out a reasonably complete viewpoint on macroeconomics (1940) that was presented at a conference in 1938 . The purpose of the article was to discuss the effects of fiscal policy on national income and employment. In order to discuss these effects, it was necessary to describe the essential features of the macro economy. Samuelson’s list of essential features (1940, pp. $492-493$ ) is revealing, and is as follows:

• The economic system is not perfect and frictionless so that there exists the possibility of unemployment and under-utilization of productive resources.
• Cumulative movements of a dis-equilibrating kind are possible.
• The propensity to consume is less than $1.0$, so net investment of sufficient magnitude is needed to reach full employment. Insufficient net investment produces a downward spiral.
• In addition, “even in a perfect capital market there is not tendency for the rate of interest to equilibrate the demand and supply of employment.” (Italics in the original.) Net investment is volatile, and the schedule of the marginal efficiency of capital may be inelastic with respect to the interest rate.
• The government has no difficulties financing deficits.

Samuelson regarded these features as a summary of the business cycle literature of the day, including Keynes’ General Theory, of course.

Samuelson considered two related questions: the timing of public expenditures and the optimal amount of cumulative public deficit over a period of time. He favored prompt deficit spending when there is a downturn arising from a lack of investment opportunities and also when firms have accumulated excessive inventories. However, he pointed out that an increase in income that results from a sustained increase in public expenditure will not have a multiplier effect immediately; he suggests there is a one-period lag between an increase in household income and an increase in consumption, followed by additional effects in subsequent periods. In addition to this Keynesian-type multiplier, Samuelson accepted the notion of the acceleration principle, in which an increase in consumption produces an increase in private net investment. But his detailed technical analysis of the interaction between the multiplier and accelerator (1939) showed that an initial amount of public spending (“pump priming”) is unlikely to set off forces that return the economy to full employment.

As for the second question, Samuelson did not supply an answer, but ended with the following $(1940$, p. 506$)$ :

If the real national income can be increased by five or ten percent over a long period of years only at the cost of incurring debt of some tens of billions of dollars, I for one should consider the price not exorbitant.

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|A more complete Keynesian model

r=(米0−米s)/米.

X=和−F， 在哪里和是出口和F是进口。

F=F0+F(是−吨)

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Paul Samuelson weighs in

• 经济体系并不完善和无摩擦，因此存在失业和生产资源利用不足的可能性。
• 不平衡类型的累积运动是可能的。
• 消费倾向小于1.0，因此需要足够大的净投资才能实现充分就业。净投资不足会导致螺旋式下降。
• 此外，“即使在完美的资本市场中，利率也不会有平衡就业供求的趋势。” （原文为斜体。）净投资是波动的，资本边际效率的时间表可能相对于利率缺乏弹性。
• 政府为赤字融资没有困难。

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