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宏观经济学，对国家或地区经济整体行为的研究。它关注的是了解整个经济的事件，如商品和服务的生产总量、失业水平和价格的一般行为。
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我们提供的宏观经济学Macroeconomics及其相关学科的代写，服务范围广, 其中包括但不限于:
- Statistical Inference 统计推断
- Statistical Computing 统计计算
- Advanced Probability Theory 高等概率论
- Advanced Mathematical Statistics 高等数理统计学
- (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
- Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
- Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
- Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础
经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|A more complete Keynesian model
This section provides the algebra for a more complete Keynesian model as depicted in Figure 2.5. This section is optional, but it does provide a more realistic picture of how Keynesian models are formulated for forecasting and analysis purposes. The model is based on the fundamental equation from Chapter 1 :
$$
\mathrm{Y}=\mathrm{C}+\mathrm{I}+\mathrm{G}+\mathrm{X}
$$
All variables are in real terms. The Keynesian model includes an equation for each of the four components of real GDP. Simple versions of the equations are used for illustration.
Consumption function $\mathrm{C}=\mathrm{C}{0}+\mathrm{b}(\mathrm{Y}-\mathrm{T})$, where $\mathrm{T}$ is taxes paid. Consumption is a linear function of income after taxes. Tax function $\mathrm{T}=\mathrm{tY}$, where $\mathrm{t}$ is the tax rate. Taxes are a constant fraction of income. Investment function $\quad \mathrm{I}=\mathrm{I}{0}-\mathrm{hr}$, where $\mathrm{r}$ is the interest rate.
Investment is a negative function of the interest rate. How is the interest rate determined? In Figure 2.5, it is determined by the supply of and demand for money. The supply of money is a given (by the monetary authorities) and the demand for money is
$$
\mathrm{M}{\mathrm{d}}=\mathrm{M}{0}-\mathrm{mr} \text {. }
$$
So with money demand equal to money supply, $M_{d}=M_{s}$,
$$
\mathrm{r}=\left(\mathrm{M}{0}-\mathrm{M}{s}\right) / \mathrm{m} \text {. }
$$
An increase in the money supply reduces the interest rate by $1 / \mathrm{m}$, the inverse of the slope of the money demand function. In this version of the Keynesian model, the solution for the interest rate will be plugged in.
Government spending on goods and services $\quad G=G_{0}$
Government spending is taken as given outside the model.
Net exports
$\mathrm{X}=\mathrm{E}-\mathrm{F}$, where $\mathrm{E}$ is exports and $\mathrm{F}$ is imports.
Exports
$\mathrm{E}=\mathrm{E}{0}$ Exports are taken as given outside the model. Imports $$ F=F{0}+f(Y-T)
$$
Imports increase with income after taxes, where $f$ is the marginal propensity to import.
经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Summary of Keynesian theory
This chapter has outlined Keynesian macroeconomic theory as Keynes himself presented it. Keynes’s purpose was to develop a coherent theory that was consistent with the world as he found it – in severe depression with little apparent movement towards self-correction. His view was that the job of the economist is to provide the economic theory that works for the existing state of the world. He had disinterest in exploring all logical possibilities. It was apparent to Keynes that the private economy in depression was not able to bring itself back to anything close to full employment and income at its potential level. His theory shows why this was so. His theory also had clear policy implications, which he did not discuss at length in the General Theory. If effective demand is not forthcoming from the private economy, then the government must step in and provide the needed stimulus directly. Monetary policy might be able to bring about a reduction in the interest rate, but Keynes was not optimistic about the effectiveness of monetary policy at increasing effective demand in depression conditions. Public works expenditures would be needed. Nevertheless, as Rauchway (2015) documents, Keynes advised President Roosevelt to abandon the gold standard and pursue a policy of increasing the supply of money during the Great Depression to halt the deflation and start prices rising. And what was not needed was a cut in money wages and prices. For Keynes, holding money wages constant was a policy recommendation. A general reduction in money wages and prices would indeed increase the real stock of money, which might in turn bring about an increase in effective demand. But any such general reduction in money wages and prices was bound to be painful, contentious, and totally unnecessary.
Keynes’s ability to adapt his economic thinking to the situation was illustrated brilliantly in 1940 in the short pamphlet How to Pay for the War. Britain’s budget starting in 1939 included massive expenditures for the military, so the problem was not too little effective demand, but too much. Britain had paid for World War I by printing money, and prices had quadrupled. Britain’s people had paid for this war through great effort and sacrifice, and the “inflation tax.” Everyone recognized that a repeat performance would not be satisfactory. A straightforward Keynesian solution was sharply higher taxes on the general public. However, Keynes recognized that simply raising the income tax rate would mean that the British people would be called upon to work much harder with no reward. His proposal was to have a graduated temporary increase in the income tax and a program of compulsory savings. The compulsory savings would be credited to interest-earning individual accounts that would be repaid after the war to reward the public and to help pull the economy through an anticipated post-war recession. The Keynes plan was widely discussed and admired, but not adopted. The Treasury opted for massive borrowing and rationing.
经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Paul Samuelson weighs in
Paul Samuelson, who is regarded generally as the most important academic economist of the 20 th century, was an early convert to Keynesian theory. He set out a reasonably complete viewpoint on macroeconomics (1940) that was presented at a conference in 1938 . The purpose of the article was to discuss the effects of fiscal policy on national income and employment. In order to discuss these effects, it was necessary to describe the essential features of the macro economy. Samuelson’s list of essential features (1940, pp. $492-493$ ) is revealing, and is as follows:
- The economic system is not perfect and frictionless so that there exists the possibility of unemployment and under-utilization of productive resources.
- Cumulative movements of a dis-equilibrating kind are possible.
- The propensity to consume is less than $1.0$, so net investment of sufficient magnitude is needed to reach full employment. Insufficient net investment produces a downward spiral.
- In addition, “even in a perfect capital market there is not tendency for the rate of interest to equilibrate the demand and supply of employment.” (Italics in the original.) Net investment is volatile, and the schedule of the marginal efficiency of capital may be inelastic with respect to the interest rate.
- The government has no difficulties financing deficits.
Samuelson regarded these features as a summary of the business cycle literature of the day, including Keynes’ General Theory, of course.
Samuelson considered two related questions: the timing of public expenditures and the optimal amount of cumulative public deficit over a period of time. He favored prompt deficit spending when there is a downturn arising from a lack of investment opportunities and also when firms have accumulated excessive inventories. However, he pointed out that an increase in income that results from a sustained increase in public expenditure will not have a multiplier effect immediately; he suggests there is a one-period lag between an increase in household income and an increase in consumption, followed by additional effects in subsequent periods. In addition to this Keynesian-type multiplier, Samuelson accepted the notion of the acceleration principle, in which an increase in consumption produces an increase in private net investment. But his detailed technical analysis of the interaction between the multiplier and accelerator (1939) showed that an initial amount of public spending (“pump priming”) is unlikely to set off forces that return the economy to full employment.
As for the second question, Samuelson did not supply an answer, but ended with the following $(1940$, p. 506$)$ :
If the real national income can be increased by five or ten percent over a long period of years only at the cost of incurring debt of some tens of billions of dollars, I for one should consider the price not exorbitant.
宏观经济学代考
经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|A more complete Keynesian model
本节提供了一个更完整的凯恩斯模型的代数，如图 2.5 所示。本节是可选的，但它确实提供了如何为预测和分析目的制定凯恩斯模型的更真实的画面。该模型基于第 1 章的基本方程：
是=C+我+G+X
所有变量都是实数。凯恩斯模型为实际 GDP 的四个组成部分中的每一个都包含一个方程。方程的简单版本用于说明。
消费函数C=C0+b(是−吨)， 在哪里吨是缴纳的税款。消费是税后收入的线性函数。税务职能吨=吨是， 在哪里吨是税率。税收是收入的固定比例。投资功能我=我0−Hr， 在哪里r是利率。
投资是利率的负函数。利率是如何确定的？在图 2.5 中，它由货币的供给和需求决定。货币供应是给定的（由货币当局），而对货币的需求是
米d=米0−米r.
所以在货币需求等于货币供给的情况下，米d=米s,
r=(米0−米s)/米.
货币供应量的增加使利率降低1/米，货币需求函数斜率的倒数。在这个版本的凯恩斯模型中，利率的解决方案将被插入。
政府在商品和服务上的支出G=G0
政府支出被视为模型之外的给定。
净出口
X=和−F， 在哪里和是出口和F是进口。
出口
和=和0导出被视为模型之外的给定值。进口
F=F0+F(是−吨)
进口随着税后收入的增加而增加，其中F是边际进口倾向。
经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Summary of Keynesian theory
本章概述了凯恩斯本人提出的凯恩斯宏观经济理论。凯恩斯的目的是发展一个与他发现的世界相一致的连贯理论——在严重的抑郁症中，几乎没有明显的自我纠正运动。他的观点是，经济学家的工作是提供适用于世界现状的经济理论。他对探索所有合乎逻辑的可能性不感兴趣。凯恩斯很明显，处于萧条期的私营经济无法在其潜在水平上恢复到接近充分就业和收入的水平。他的理论说明了为什么会这样。他的理论也有明确的政策含义，他没有在《通论》中详细讨论。如果私营经济没有产生有效需求，然后政府必须介入并直接提供所需的刺激。货币政策或许能够降低利率，但凯恩斯对货币政策在萧条条件下增加有效需求的有效性并不乐观。将需要公共工程支出。尽管如此，正如 Rauchway (2015) 所记录的那样，凯恩斯建议罗斯福总统放弃金本位制，并在大萧条期间采取增加货币供应的政策，以阻止通缩并开始价格上涨。而不需要的是削减货币工资和物价。对于凯恩斯来说，保持货币工资不变是一项政策建议。货币工资和价格的普遍下降确实会增加实际货币存量，这反过来可能会带来有效需求的增加。
凯恩斯在 1940 年的小册子《如何为战争买单》中出色地说明了凯恩斯使他的经济思想适应形势的能力。英国从 1939 年开始的预算包括大量的军费开支，所以问题不是有效需求太少，而是太多了。英国通过印钞支付了第一次世界大战的费用，价格翻了两番。英国人民为这场战争付出了巨大的努力和牺牲，以及“通货膨胀税”。每个人都认识到，重复的表现不会令人满意。一个简单的凯恩斯主义解决方案是大幅提高公众税收。然而，凯恩斯认识到，仅仅提高所得税率就意味着英国人民将被要求更加努力地工作而没有任何回报。他的提议是逐步增加所得税和强制储蓄计划。强制性储蓄将记入赚取利息的个人账户，这些账户将在战后偿还，以奖励公众并帮助拉动经济度过预期的战后衰退。凯恩斯计划被广泛讨论和赞赏，但没有被采纳。财政部选择了大规模借贷和配给。
经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Paul Samuelson weighs in
保罗·萨缪尔森被普遍认为是 20 世纪最重要的学院派经济学家，他是凯恩斯理论的早期皈依者。他在 1938 年的一次会议上提出了一个相当完整的宏观经济学观点（1940 年）。这篇文章的目的是讨论财政政策对国民收入和就业的影响。为了讨论这些影响，有必要描述宏观经济的基本特征。Samuelson 的基本特征列表 (1940, pp.492−493) 具有启发性，如下所示：
- 经济体系并不完善和无摩擦，因此存在失业和生产资源利用不足的可能性。
- 不平衡类型的累积运动是可能的。
- 消费倾向小于1.0，因此需要足够大的净投资才能实现充分就业。净投资不足会导致螺旋式下降。
- 此外，“即使在完美的资本市场中，利率也不会有平衡就业供求的趋势。” （原文为斜体。）净投资是波动的，资本边际效率的时间表可能相对于利率缺乏弹性。
- 政府为赤字融资没有困难。
萨缪尔森认为这些特征是对当时商业周期文献的总结，当然也包括凯恩斯的通论。
萨缪尔森考虑了两个相关问题：公共支出的时间安排和一段时间内累积公共赤字的最佳数量。当由于缺乏投资机会而导致经济低迷以及企业积累过多库存时，他倾向于立即支出赤字。然而，他指出，公共开支持续增加所带来的收入增加不会立即产生乘数效应；他认为，家庭收入的增加和消费的增加之间存在一个时期的滞后，随后会产生额外的影响。除了凯恩斯式的乘数，萨缪尔森还接受了加速原理的概念，即消费的增加会导致私人净投资的增加。
至于第二个问题，萨缪尔森并没有给出答案，而是以如下结尾(1940，页。506) :
如果仅以数百亿美元的债务为代价，可以在很长一段时间内使实际国民收入增加百分之五或百分之十，我认为这个代价并不高。
统计代写请认准statistics-lab™. statistics-lab™为您的留学生涯保驾护航。
金融工程代写
金融工程是使用数学技术来解决金融问题。金融工程使用计算机科学、统计学、经济学和应用数学领域的工具和知识来解决当前的金融问题，以及设计新的和创新的金融产品。
非参数统计代写
非参数统计指的是一种统计方法，其中不假设数据来自于由少数参数决定的规定模型；这种模型的例子包括正态分布模型和线性回归模型。
广义线性模型代考
广义线性模型（GLM）归属统计学领域，是一种应用灵活的线性回归模型。该模型允许因变量的偏差分布有除了正态分布之外的其它分布。
术语 广义线性模型（GLM）通常是指给定连续和/或分类预测因素的连续响应变量的常规线性回归模型。它包括多元线性回归，以及方差分析和方差分析（仅含固定效应）。
有限元方法代写
有限元方法（FEM）是一种流行的方法，用于数值解决工程和数学建模中出现的微分方程。典型的问题领域包括结构分析、传热、流体流动、质量运输和电磁势等传统领域。
有限元是一种通用的数值方法，用于解决两个或三个空间变量的偏微分方程（即一些边界值问题）。为了解决一个问题，有限元将一个大系统细分为更小、更简单的部分，称为有限元。这是通过在空间维度上的特定空间离散化来实现的，它是通过构建对象的网格来实现的：用于求解的数值域，它有有限数量的点。边界值问题的有限元方法表述最终导致一个代数方程组。该方法在域上对未知函数进行逼近。[1] 然后将模拟这些有限元的简单方程组合成一个更大的方程系统，以模拟整个问题。然后，有限元通过变化微积分使相关的误差函数最小化来逼近一个解决方案。
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随机分析代写
随机微积分是数学的一个分支，对随机过程进行操作。它允许为随机过程的积分定义一个关于随机过程的一致的积分理论。这个领域是由日本数学家伊藤清在第二次世界大战期间创建并开始的。
时间序列分析代写
随机过程，是依赖于参数的一组随机变量的全体，参数通常是时间。 随机变量是随机现象的数量表现，其时间序列是一组按照时间发生先后顺序进行排列的数据点序列。通常一组时间序列的时间间隔为一恒定值（如1秒，5分钟，12小时，7天，1年），因此时间序列可以作为离散时间数据进行分析处理。研究时间序列数据的意义在于现实中，往往需要研究某个事物其随时间发展变化的规律。这就需要通过研究该事物过去发展的历史记录，以得到其自身发展的规律。
回归分析代写
多元回归分析渐进（Multiple Regression Analysis Asymptotics）属于计量经济学领域，主要是一种数学上的统计分析方法，可以分析复杂情况下各影响因素的数学关系，在自然科学、社会和经济学等多个领域内应用广泛。
MATLAB代写
MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习和应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。