经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|ECON5002

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宏观经济学,对国家或地区经济整体行为的研究。它关注的是了解整个经济的事件,如商品和服务的生产总量、失业水平和价格的一般行为。

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  • Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础
经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|ECON5002

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|The Hicks-Hansen version of Keynesian theory

John R. Hicks (1937) read the General Theory carefully and invented the graphical presentation that has been used to teach Keynes to students ever since. This HicksHansen version of Keynesian theory is known as the neoclassical synthesis. The neoclassical synthesis combines Keynesian and classical theory. You know that Keynesian theory shows that the government must provide fiscal and monetary stimulus to bring an economy to full employment. However, once full employment has been reached, the economy can rely on market forces to allocate resources efficiently, as argued by the classical economists.

For Hicks, the critical feature of the Keynesian theory is the demand for money (in wage units), which as we have seen, is assumed to depend upon the interest rate and real income. But Hicks asserts that Keynes introduced a “special theory” in which the demand for money does not depend upon income – only the interest rate. In this case, the interest rate is determined as shown in Figure $2.4$, and investment, employment, and income are determined in sequence. As Hicks (1937, p. 153) put it,

It is this system of equations which yields the startling conclusion, that an increase in the inducement to invest, or in the propensity to consume, will not tend to raise the rate of interest, but only to increase employment.

Rather, the “general theory” should include income as a determinant of the demand for money. Equilibrium in the market for money must be consistent with the level of income determined in the model. An increase in income caused by, for example, an increase in the propensity to consume will in general cause the interest rate to increase as well – which in turn will reduce investment, and so on.

Hicks invented a graphical device that is known as the IS-LM model. The price level is assumed to be constant in this model. The full model is shown in Figure 3.1. The diagram on the left shows the demand for and supply of money. The demand for money (at a given interest rate) is presumed to shift upwards when income rises, so three alternative demand schedules for money are shown. The diagram in the middle bottom includes the IS curve from Figure $2.5$. It shows the combinations of income and interest rate at which investment and saving are equal. The other curve, labeled the LM curve, shows the combinations of income and interest rate at which the demand for and supply of money are equal. As the diagram on the left shows, for a given supply of money, an increase in income requires that the interest rate must be higher. An increase in income means that more of the money stock must be used to handle transactions and satisfy the precautionary demand for money. Less money is available to satisfy the speculative demand for money, so the price of holding money – the interest rate – must rise so that households and firms will be content with smaller money balances held for this purpose. LM stands for liquiditymoney, and the LM curve has a positive slope because a higher level of income is consistent with a higher interest rate (except in the range where the interest rate is so low that it does not change with changes in the supply of money).

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|External and internal balance

It was noted in Chapter 2 that Keynes was an internationalist who worked to improve the international financial system for his entire career. He concentrated on the closed economy in the General Theory but afterward returned to the international economy. The Bretton Woods system he helped to establish in 1944 lasted until the $1970 \mathrm{~s}$ and was an important factor in promoting international trade that boosted postwar economic growth. During the $1970 \mathrm{~s}$, the international monetary system was changed from a system of fixed exchange rates with limited flexibility to floating exchange rates. The international system was established in 1944 at a conference held at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire. The key actors at Bretton Woods were Keynes for the United Kingdom and Harry Dexter White for the U.S. Treasury. Much has been written about this conference; Rauchway (2015) provides an illuminating telling of the story. This system committed members to fixed exchange rates and required members to intervene to keep its exchange rate within a band of 1 percent up or down. The nation’s central bank was to buy or sell its own currency in order to stay within the band. However, the agreement also created the International Monetary Fund to provide loans to help each country to manage its currency, and member nations were permitted to devalue by up to 10 percent one time. Additional devaluations beyond the 10 percent required a majority vote of the member nations. The exchange rates of the other currencies were pegged to the U.S. dollar, which was established as the reserve currency to be used for settling international payments. The value of the dollar was pegged in terms of gold at $\$ 35$ per ounce, and the United States agreed to buy and sell gold at that price. The system was designed to facilitate international trade by ensuring stable exchange rates, but it did permit a nation to devalue its currency when necessary. The system worked well as long as the member nations had similar, low rates of inflation.

Just prior to the time of his death, Keynes was working on a theory that would solve the problem of finding the combination of domestic demand and exchange rate that is consistent with noninflationary full employment (internal balance) and exports equal to imports (external balance). The job of working out and writing down the theory was accomplished by an associate of Keynes, James Meade (1952), in a book for which he was awarded the Nobel Prize. Meade stated his indebtedness to Keynes. The basic model is shown in Figure $3.4$ and follows the presentation in Temin and Vines $(2014$, p. 82$)$.

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|The addition of the price level to the Keynesian model

So far, prices have been mentioned only in passing. As noted in Chapter 2 , a reduction in prices increases the real supply of money, may reduce interest rates, and perhaps may stimulate the economy. A more complete model adds the labor market, the wage level, and the price level. The simple version of the Keynesian model assumes that the wage level in money terms remains constant as prices rise or fall. This means that workers will supply more labor at the given money wage if labor demand increases, even if the real wage has been cut by an increase in prices. More realistically, we could assume that money wages do not respond to an increase in labor demand when labor demand is low but that wages respond more rapidly as the economy approaches full employment. Modern Keynesians develop models that show that some prices (in this case, the money wage rate) do not adjust quickly to changes in demand or supply.

As explained in Chapter 2 and shown in Figure 2.1, firms in competitive industries hire workers up to the point at which the marginal product of labor equals the real wage rate. Now we add the price level, so the rule now is that firms hire labor up to the point at which the marginal product MP equals the real wage rate, denoted the money wage $\mathrm{W}$, divided by the price level $\mathrm{P}$ :
$$
\mathrm{MP}=\text { real wage }=\mathrm{W} / \mathrm{P} .
$$
If the money wage is constant, an increase in the price level lowers the real wage (W/P) and increases employment and output. Employers wish to hire more workers, and more workers are willing to work at the same money wage $W$ (even though the real wage has been cut). The more general statement is, if the percentage increase in the money wage is less than the percentage increase in prices, employment and output increase; or a reduction in prices increases the real wage and reduces employment and output.

Modern Keynesians have developed various formal models of firm and labor market behavior that produce slow changes in prices and wages. For example, some labor is hired subject to contracts that specify money wages over a period of several years. Such an agreement is rational for both parties, because adjusting wages is a process with a cost and generates sticky wages. Prices in perfectly competitive markets are thought to adjust quickly to changes in demand and supply. Prices for stock and agricultural commodities, for example, change continuously on organized exchanges. Labor markets are not so well organized.

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|ECON5002

宏观经济学代考

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|The Hicks-Hansen version of Keynesian theory

约翰·希克斯 (John R. Hicks) (1937) 仔细阅读了《通论》,并发明了自那时以来一直用于向学生教授凯恩斯的图形表示法。这种凯恩斯理论的希克斯汉森版本被称为新古典综合。新古典综合理论结合了凯恩斯主义和古典理论。你知道凯恩斯理论表明,政府必须提供财政和货币刺激,才能使经济充分就业。然而,正如古典经济学家所说,一旦达到充分就业,经济就可以依靠市场力量有效地配置资源。

对于希克斯来说,凯恩斯理论的关键特征是对货币的需求(以工资为单位),正如我们所看到的,它被假定取决于利率和实际收入。但希克斯断言,凯恩斯引入了一种“特殊理论”,其中货币需求不取决于收入——只取决于利率。在这种情况下,利率确定如图所示2.4,投资、就业、收入依次确定。正如 Hicks (1937, p. 153) 所说,

正是这个方程组得出了一个令人吃惊的结论,即投资动机或消费倾向的增加,不会倾向于提高利率,而只会增加就业。

相反,“一般理论”应该包括收入作为货币需求的决定因素。货币市场的均衡必须与模型中确定的收入水平相一致。例如,由于消费倾向的增加而导致的收入增加通常也会导致利率上升——这反过来又会减少投资,等等。

希克斯发明了一种称为 IS-LM 模型的图形设备。在这个模型中,价格水平被假定为常数。完整模型如图 3.1 所示。左图显示了货币的需求和供给。假定当收入增加时,货币需求(在给定利率下)向上移动,因此显示了三种可供选择的货币需求表。中间底部的图表包括图 1 中的 IS 曲线2.5. 它显示了投资和储蓄相等的收入和利率的组合。另一条标记为 LM 曲线的曲线显示了货币需求和供给相等时的收入和利率的组合。如左图所示,对于给定的货币供应,收入的增加要求利率必须更高。收入的增加意味着更多的货币存量必须用于处理交易并满足对货币的预防性需求。可用于满足投机性货币需求的货币减少了,因此持有货币的价格——利率——必须上升,这样家庭和企业才会满足于为此目的而持有的较小的货币余额。LM 代表流动性货币,

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|External and internal balance

在第 2 章中提到,凯恩斯是一位国际主义者,他的整个职业生涯都致力于改善国际金融体系。他在通论中专注于封闭经济,但后来又回到了国际经济。他在 1944 年帮助建立的布雷顿森林体系一直持续到1970 s并且是促进国际贸易的重要因素,促进了战后经济增长。在此期间1970 s, 国际货币体系由弹性有限的固定汇率制度转变为浮动汇率制度。国际体系于 1944 年在新罕布什尔州布雷顿森林举行的一次会议上建立。布雷顿森林体系的主要演员是英国的凯恩斯和美国财政部的哈里德克斯特怀特。关于这次会议的文章很多。Rauchway (2015) 提供了一个富有启发性的故事讲述。该系统承诺会员采用固定汇率,并要求会员进行干预以将其汇率保持在 1% 的上下浮动范围内。该国中央银行将买卖自己的货币以保持在该区间内。但是,该协议还创建了国际货币基金组织,以提供贷款以帮助每个国家管理其货币,成员国被允许一次最多贬值 10%。超过 10% 的额外贬值需要成员国的多数票。其他货币的汇率与美元挂钩,美元被确立为用于结算国际支付的储备货币。美元的价值与黄金挂钩$35每盎司,美国同意以该价格买卖黄金。该系统旨在通过确保稳定的汇率来促进国际贸易,但它确实允许一个国家在必要时贬值其货币。只要成员国有类似的低通胀率,该系统就会运作良好。

就在他去世之前,凯恩斯正在研究一种理论,该理论将解决寻找与非通胀充分就业(内部平衡)和出口等于进口(外部平衡)一致的国内需求和汇率组合的问题. 凯恩斯的一位同事詹姆斯·米德(James Meade,1952 年)在他获得诺贝尔奖的书中完成了制定和写下该理论的工作。米德表示感谢凯恩斯。基本模型如图3.4并关注 Temin 和 Vines 中的演示(2014,页。82).

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|The addition of the price level to the Keynesian model

到目前为止,价格只是顺便提及。如第 2 章所述,价格下降会增加实际货币供应量,可能会降低利率,并可能会刺激经济。一个更完整的模型增加了劳动力市场、工资水平和价格水平。凯恩斯模型的简单版本假设货币工资水平随着价格上涨或下跌而保持不变。这意味着如果劳动力需求增加,即使实际工资因价格上涨而降低,工人也会以给定的货币工资提供更多的劳动力。更现实地,我们可以假设,当劳动力需求低时,货币工资对劳动力需求的增加没有反应,但随着经济接近充分就业,工资反应更快。现代凯恩斯主义者开发的模型显示某些价格(在这种情况下,

正如第 2 章所解释的和图 2.1 所示,竞争性行业中的公司雇佣的工人的边际产量等于实际工资率。现在我们加上价格水平,所以现在的规则是企业雇佣劳动力的边际产品 MP 等于实际工资率,表示为货币工资在, 除以价格水平磷 :

米磷= 实际工资 =在/磷.
如果货币工资不变,价格水平的上升会降低实际工资(W/P)并增加就业和产出。雇主希望雇佣更多的工人,更多的工人愿意以同样的货币工资工作在(即使实际工资已被削减)。更一般的说法是,如果货币工资增长的百分比小于价格、就业和产出增长的百分比;或者价格下降会增加实际工资并减少就业和产出。

现代凯恩斯主义者已经开发出各种形式的企业和劳动力市场行为模型,这些模型会导致价格和工资的缓慢变化。例如,一些劳动力是根据合同雇佣的,这些合同规定了几年内的货币工资。这样的协议对双方来说都是合理的,因为调整工资是一个有成本的过程,会产生粘性工资。完全竞争市场中的价格被认为会迅速适应需求和供应的变化。例如,股票和农产品的价格在有组织的交易所中不断变化。劳动力市场组织得不是很好。

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考 请认准statistics-lab™

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金融工程代写

金融工程是使用数学技术来解决金融问题。金融工程使用计算机科学、统计学、经济学和应用数学领域的工具和知识来解决当前的金融问题,以及设计新的和创新的金融产品。

非参数统计代写

非参数统计指的是一种统计方法,其中不假设数据来自于由少数参数决定的规定模型;这种模型的例子包括正态分布模型和线性回归模型。

广义线性模型代考

广义线性模型(GLM)归属统计学领域,是一种应用灵活的线性回归模型。该模型允许因变量的偏差分布有除了正态分布之外的其它分布。

术语 广义线性模型(GLM)通常是指给定连续和/或分类预测因素的连续响应变量的常规线性回归模型。它包括多元线性回归,以及方差分析和方差分析(仅含固定效应)。

有限元方法代写

有限元方法(FEM)是一种流行的方法,用于数值解决工程和数学建模中出现的微分方程。典型的问题领域包括结构分析、传热、流体流动、质量运输和电磁势等传统领域。

有限元是一种通用的数值方法,用于解决两个或三个空间变量的偏微分方程(即一些边界值问题)。为了解决一个问题,有限元将一个大系统细分为更小、更简单的部分,称为有限元。这是通过在空间维度上的特定空间离散化来实现的,它是通过构建对象的网格来实现的:用于求解的数值域,它有有限数量的点。边界值问题的有限元方法表述最终导致一个代数方程组。该方法在域上对未知函数进行逼近。[1] 然后将模拟这些有限元的简单方程组合成一个更大的方程系统,以模拟整个问题。然后,有限元通过变化微积分使相关的误差函数最小化来逼近一个解决方案。

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随机分析代写


随机微积分是数学的一个分支,对随机过程进行操作。它允许为随机过程的积分定义一个关于随机过程的一致的积分理论。这个领域是由日本数学家伊藤清在第二次世界大战期间创建并开始的。

时间序列分析代写

随机过程,是依赖于参数的一组随机变量的全体,参数通常是时间。 随机变量是随机现象的数量表现,其时间序列是一组按照时间发生先后顺序进行排列的数据点序列。通常一组时间序列的时间间隔为一恒定值(如1秒,5分钟,12小时,7天,1年),因此时间序列可以作为离散时间数据进行分析处理。研究时间序列数据的意义在于现实中,往往需要研究某个事物其随时间发展变化的规律。这就需要通过研究该事物过去发展的历史记录,以得到其自身发展的规律。

回归分析代写

多元回归分析渐进(Multiple Regression Analysis Asymptotics)属于计量经济学领域,主要是一种数学上的统计分析方法,可以分析复杂情况下各影响因素的数学关系,在自然科学、社会和经济学等多个领域内应用广泛。

MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中,其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括:数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发,包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统,其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题,尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题,而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问,这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展,得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中,它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域,MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要,工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数(M 文件)的综合集合,可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。

R语言代写问卷设计与分析代写
PYTHON代写回归分析与线性模型代写
MATLAB代写方差分析与试验设计代写
STATA代写机器学习/统计学习代写
SPSS代写计量经济学代写
EVIEWS代写时间序列分析代写
EXCEL代写深度学习代写
SQL代写各种数据建模与可视化代写

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