### 经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|ECON6002

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• Statistical Inference 统计推断
• Statistical Computing 统计计算
• (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
• Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
• Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

## 经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Schools of thought in economics

Economics textbooks as a rule avoid openly discussing different schools of thought. Controversies in macroeconomics are discussed in technical terms, and this book will do likewise. However, membership in a particular school of thought influences research and policy discussions at every turn. On the normative side, schools of thought differ in the ethical objectives that are taken as given. On the positive side, the school of thought influences the nature of the data that are gathered, the nature

of the facts that are deemed important to explain, the choice of economic model to explain those facts, and the use of the models that are formed. The existence of fundamentally different schools of thought leads to competing economic models that coexist and claim to explain the facts. What is an informed observer supposed to do? The first step is to understand the basic tenets of the schools of thought, and that is the purpose of this section.

There are three fundamentally different schools of thought in economics. One is Marxism, but very few macro economists are members of this school. The overriding theme in Marxism is class struggle between the two social classes that are associated with the two primary factors of production, capital and labor. Inherent in the capitalist economy are “contradictions” that lead to the class struggle, which in turn results in major changes in society – such as revolution. Marxists exist in universities in the United States, Japan, and Europe and in other places as well, but they are not influential in the field of macroeconomics in advanced, highly developed nations. Marxism will not be discussed further in this book.

The other two schools of thought can be labeled “mainstream economics” and “conservative economics.” Members of these two schools agree on some things. In particular, they agree on the usefulness of notions that people maximize utility subject to constraints on income and time, and firms maximize profits given technological constraints and the state of the market. These are, of course, the building blocks of microeconomics. Mainstream economists go one very big step further. They take the objective of utility maximization subject to constraints to the level of the society (or nation). The utility of a society is a function of the utility of its members, and the constraints are the availability of resources including land, capital, and (above all) the time of its members. Framing the economic question in this way leads to the familiar normative conclusion that the marginal benefit to society of a particular good or activity (and hence price) should equal its marginal cost to society.

## 经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Monetarism

The Monetarism of Milton Friedman and his colleagues is a coherent body of thought that produced a huge body of research that includes numerous doctoral dissertations written at the University of Chicago. Recall that the Quantity Theory of Money that can be stated as:
$$\mathrm{MV}=\mathrm{PY}=\mathrm{GDP}$$
where
$\mathrm{M}=$ the stock of money however measured;
$\mathrm{V}=$ the velocity of circulation of money, i.e., the number of times the stock of money is used to purchase final goods and services in a year;

$\mathrm{P}=$ the overall price level; and
$Y=$ the real level of output of final goods and services.
The equation can be stated in alternative forms:
\begin{aligned} &\mathrm{P}=\mathrm{MV} / \mathrm{Y} \ &\mathrm{M}=\mathrm{PY} / \mathrm{V}, \text { and } \ &\mathrm{V}=\mathrm{PY} / \mathrm{M} . \end{aligned}
The Quantity Theory of Money provides a convenient explanation for inflation, which is the continuing increases in prices. The basic idea is that if the supply of money keeps rising, so will prices. Money supply increases are directly linked to inflation, provided that real output and the velocity of money do not change (or change very little). The empirical evidence for the hypothesis linking money and inflation is voluminous. As Milton Friedman said often, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.”

Consider the American Civil War. The Confederate side had very little ability to finance the war other than by printing money. Further, states, local governments, and private firms printed money too. By the end of the war in 1865 , consumer prices had increased by 9,000 percent. Confederate money was worthless, and people were carrying on routine transactions by barter. Then there is Weimar Germany. Saddled with unrealistic reparation payments after World War I, the government printed money instead of imposing taxes or borrowing. The price of a gold Mark in terms of paper Marks at the end of various years were: 10 in 1920,100 in 1922 , and 1 trillion in 1923 (that is $1,000,000,000,000$ ). A recent example is the nation of Zimbabwe. The government printed money to pay for wars against other African countries and to pay corrupt officials. The official exchange rate against the U.S. dollar was 1,000 to 1 on January $1,2004,10^{7.5}$ to 1 on January 1,2008 , and $10^{23}$ to 1 on January 1 , 2009. That rate on January 1,2009 is $100,000,000,000$ trillion ( 1 hundred million trillions). By comparison, the GDP of the United States is about 20 trillion dollars. The people of Zimbabwe were using other currencies or barter.

The Quantity Theory of Money also provides a neat explanation for deflation, continuously decreasing prices. A good example is the United States in the decades after the end of the Civil War in 1865 . The North had experienced inflation during the war of about 75 percent, because much of the war was financed by taxation and bond sales rather than printing money. However, the postwar government wished to avoid inflation and decided to return to the gold standard at the prewar rate. The government stopped printing the Greenbacks used during the war and also stopped minting silver coins. The growth of the money supply fell well short of the growth in real economy, which was booming in the industrializing North. Data for money, income, and prices for 1869 and 1879 are shown in Table 4.1.

## 经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Exchange rate policy

Monetarists favor floating exchange rates. Obviously, they favor prices that are determined in competitive markets, but they also point out that permitting the exchange rate to float permits monetary policy to concentrate on the domestic economy. A floating exchange rate is an integral part of the Monetarist program. Milton Friedman made the case for flexible exchange rates soon after the adoption in 1944 of the Bretton Woods system for international finance of fixed exchange rates (with limited devaluation possibilities). Friedman’s famous essay (1953) originated in a memo written in 1950 for an agency of the federal government.
Friedman (1953) began, oddly enough, by considering a nation with a surplus in the balance of payments. There are five ways to bring the demand and supply of the nation’s currency into balance:

• Permit the market to adjust the exchange rate continuously;
• Make jumps in the official exchange rate;
• Permit prices within the nation to rise;
• Impose direct controls such as export licenses; or
• Use the nation’s reserves to supply the needed currency.
A nation with a deficit in the balance of payments also has five options: let the exchange rate float, do an official devaluation of the fixed rate, permit domestic prices to fall, impose direct controls such as tariffs on imports, or reduce the nation’s reserves (i.e., ship the gold). Friedman then proceeded to argue against all of the options that are not floating exchange rates.

Friedman (1953, p. 164) had a particularly harsh critique of making jumps in the official exchange rate. He stated:

In short, the system of occasional changes in temporarily rigid exchange rates seems to me the worst of two worlds: it provides neither the stability of expectations that a genuinely rigid and stable exchange rate would provide in a world of unrestricted trade and willingness and ability to adjust the internal price structure to external conditions nor the continuous sensitivity of the flexible exchange rate.

## 经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Exchange rate policy

• 允许市场不断调整汇率；
• 使官方汇率跳跃；
• 允许国内价格上涨；
• 实施出口许可证等直接管制；或者
• 使用国家的储备来供应所需的货币。
一个国际收支逆差的国家也有五种选择：让汇率浮动，对固定汇率进行官方贬值，允许国内价格下跌，对进口征收关税等直接控制，或减少国家储备（即，运送黄金）。弗里德曼随后开始反对所有非浮动汇率的选择。

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## MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。