经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|ECON6002

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宏观经济学,对国家或地区经济整体行为的研究。它关注的是了解整个经济的事件,如商品和服务的生产总量、失业水平和价格的一般行为。

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  • Statistical Inference 统计推断
  • Statistical Computing 统计计算
  • Advanced Probability Theory 高等概率论
  • Advanced Mathematical Statistics 高等数理统计学
  • (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
  • Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
  • Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
  • Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础
经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|ECON6002

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Schools of thought in economics

Economics textbooks as a rule avoid openly discussing different schools of thought. Controversies in macroeconomics are discussed in technical terms, and this book will do likewise. However, membership in a particular school of thought influences research and policy discussions at every turn. On the normative side, schools of thought differ in the ethical objectives that are taken as given. On the positive side, the school of thought influences the nature of the data that are gathered, the nature

of the facts that are deemed important to explain, the choice of economic model to explain those facts, and the use of the models that are formed. The existence of fundamentally different schools of thought leads to competing economic models that coexist and claim to explain the facts. What is an informed observer supposed to do? The first step is to understand the basic tenets of the schools of thought, and that is the purpose of this section.

There are three fundamentally different schools of thought in economics. One is Marxism, but very few macro economists are members of this school. The overriding theme in Marxism is class struggle between the two social classes that are associated with the two primary factors of production, capital and labor. Inherent in the capitalist economy are “contradictions” that lead to the class struggle, which in turn results in major changes in society – such as revolution. Marxists exist in universities in the United States, Japan, and Europe and in other places as well, but they are not influential in the field of macroeconomics in advanced, highly developed nations. Marxism will not be discussed further in this book.

The other two schools of thought can be labeled “mainstream economics” and “conservative economics.” Members of these two schools agree on some things. In particular, they agree on the usefulness of notions that people maximize utility subject to constraints on income and time, and firms maximize profits given technological constraints and the state of the market. These are, of course, the building blocks of microeconomics. Mainstream economists go one very big step further. They take the objective of utility maximization subject to constraints to the level of the society (or nation). The utility of a society is a function of the utility of its members, and the constraints are the availability of resources including land, capital, and (above all) the time of its members. Framing the economic question in this way leads to the familiar normative conclusion that the marginal benefit to society of a particular good or activity (and hence price) should equal its marginal cost to society.

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Monetarism

The Monetarism of Milton Friedman and his colleagues is a coherent body of thought that produced a huge body of research that includes numerous doctoral dissertations written at the University of Chicago. Recall that the Quantity Theory of Money that can be stated as:
$$
\mathrm{MV}=\mathrm{PY}=\mathrm{GDP}
$$
where
$\mathrm{M}=$ the stock of money however measured;
$\mathrm{V}=$ the velocity of circulation of money, i.e., the number of times the stock of money is used to purchase final goods and services in a year;

$\mathrm{P}=$ the overall price level; and
$Y=$ the real level of output of final goods and services.
The equation can be stated in alternative forms:
$$
\begin{aligned}
&\mathrm{P}=\mathrm{MV} / \mathrm{Y} \
&\mathrm{M}=\mathrm{PY} / \mathrm{V}, \text { and } \
&\mathrm{V}=\mathrm{PY} / \mathrm{M} .
\end{aligned}
$$
The Quantity Theory of Money provides a convenient explanation for inflation, which is the continuing increases in prices. The basic idea is that if the supply of money keeps rising, so will prices. Money supply increases are directly linked to inflation, provided that real output and the velocity of money do not change (or change very little). The empirical evidence for the hypothesis linking money and inflation is voluminous. As Milton Friedman said often, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.”

Consider the American Civil War. The Confederate side had very little ability to finance the war other than by printing money. Further, states, local governments, and private firms printed money too. By the end of the war in 1865 , consumer prices had increased by 9,000 percent. Confederate money was worthless, and people were carrying on routine transactions by barter. Then there is Weimar Germany. Saddled with unrealistic reparation payments after World War I, the government printed money instead of imposing taxes or borrowing. The price of a gold Mark in terms of paper Marks at the end of various years were: 10 in 1920,100 in 1922 , and 1 trillion in 1923 (that is $1,000,000,000,000$ ). A recent example is the nation of Zimbabwe. The government printed money to pay for wars against other African countries and to pay corrupt officials. The official exchange rate against the U.S. dollar was 1,000 to 1 on January $1,2004,10^{7.5}$ to 1 on January 1,2008 , and $10^{23}$ to 1 on January 1 , 2009. That rate on January 1,2009 is $100,000,000,000$ trillion ( 1 hundred million trillions). By comparison, the GDP of the United States is about 20 trillion dollars. The people of Zimbabwe were using other currencies or barter.

The Quantity Theory of Money also provides a neat explanation for deflation, continuously decreasing prices. A good example is the United States in the decades after the end of the Civil War in 1865 . The North had experienced inflation during the war of about 75 percent, because much of the war was financed by taxation and bond sales rather than printing money. However, the postwar government wished to avoid inflation and decided to return to the gold standard at the prewar rate. The government stopped printing the Greenbacks used during the war and also stopped minting silver coins. The growth of the money supply fell well short of the growth in real economy, which was booming in the industrializing North. Data for money, income, and prices for 1869 and 1879 are shown in Table 4.1.

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Exchange rate policy

Monetarists favor floating exchange rates. Obviously, they favor prices that are determined in competitive markets, but they also point out that permitting the exchange rate to float permits monetary policy to concentrate on the domestic economy. A floating exchange rate is an integral part of the Monetarist program. Milton Friedman made the case for flexible exchange rates soon after the adoption in 1944 of the Bretton Woods system for international finance of fixed exchange rates (with limited devaluation possibilities). Friedman’s famous essay (1953) originated in a memo written in 1950 for an agency of the federal government.
Friedman (1953) began, oddly enough, by considering a nation with a surplus in the balance of payments. There are five ways to bring the demand and supply of the nation’s currency into balance:

  • Permit the market to adjust the exchange rate continuously;
  • Make jumps in the official exchange rate;
  • Permit prices within the nation to rise;
  • Impose direct controls such as export licenses; or
  • Use the nation’s reserves to supply the needed currency.
    A nation with a deficit in the balance of payments also has five options: let the exchange rate float, do an official devaluation of the fixed rate, permit domestic prices to fall, impose direct controls such as tariffs on imports, or reduce the nation’s reserves (i.e., ship the gold). Friedman then proceeded to argue against all of the options that are not floating exchange rates.

Friedman (1953, p. 164) had a particularly harsh critique of making jumps in the official exchange rate. He stated:

In short, the system of occasional changes in temporarily rigid exchange rates seems to me the worst of two worlds: it provides neither the stability of expectations that a genuinely rigid and stable exchange rate would provide in a world of unrestricted trade and willingness and ability to adjust the internal price structure to external conditions nor the continuous sensitivity of the flexible exchange rate.

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|ECON6002

宏观经济学代考

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Schools of thought in economics

经济学教科书通常避免公开讨论不同的思想流派。宏观经济学中的争议是用技术术语来讨论的,本书也将这样做。然而,特定学派的成员身份会影响研究和政策讨论的每一个转折点。在规范方面,思想流派在被视为既定的伦理目标方面存在差异。从积极的方面来说,思想流派会影响所收集数据的性质、性质

解释被认为重要的事实,解释这些事实的经济模型的选择,以及所形成模型的使用。根本不同的思想流派的存在导致相互竞争的经济模型共存并声称可以解释事实。知情的观察者应该做什么?第一步是了解学派的基本原则,这就是本节的目的。

经济学中存在三种根本不同的思想流派。一个是马克思主义,但很少有宏观经济学家是这个学派的成员。马克思主义最重要的主题是与资本和劳动力这两个主要生产要素相关的两个社会阶级之间的阶级斗争。资本主义经济固有的是导致阶级斗争的“矛盾”,这反过来又导致社会的重大变化——比如革命。马克思主义者存在于美国、日本、欧洲等地的大学中,但在先进、高度发达的国家的宏观经济学领域没有影响力。马克思主义在本书中不作进一步讨论。

其他两个学派可以称为“主流经济学”和“保守经济学”。这两所学校的成员在一些事情上达成了一致。特别是,他们同意以下观点的有用性:人们在收入和时间的限制下最大化效用,企业在技术限制和市场状态下实现利润最大化。当然,这些是微观经济学的基石。主流经济学家更进一步。他们将效用最大化的目标置于社会(或国家)层面的约束之下。一个社会的效用是其成员效用的函数,而约束是资源的可用性,包括土地、资本和(最重要的是)其成员的时间。

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Monetarism

米尔顿弗里德曼及其同事的货币主义是一个连贯的思想体系,产生了大量的研究,其中包括在芝加哥大学撰写的大量博士论文。回想一下可以表述为的货币数量论:

米在=磷是=GD磷
在哪里
米=无论如何衡量的货币存量;
在=货币流通速度,即货币存量在一年内用于购买最终商品和服务的次数;

磷=整体价格水平;和
是=最终商品和服务的实际产出水平。
该等式可以用其他形式表示:

磷=米在/是 米=磷是/在, 和  在=磷是/米.
货币数量论为通货膨胀提供了一个方便的解释,即价格的持续上涨。基本思想是,如果货币供应持续上升,价格也会上升。货币供应增加与通货膨胀直接相关,前提是实际产出和货币流通速度不变(或变化很小)。将货币与通货膨胀联系起来的假设的经验证据是大量的。正如米尔顿弗里德曼经常说的那样,“通货膨胀在任何地方都是一种货币现象。”

考虑美国内战。除了印钞票之外,同盟方几乎没有能力为战争提供资金。此外,州、地方政府和私营公司也印钞票。到 1865 年战争结束时,消费价格上涨了 9,000%。邦联的钱一文不值,人们通过易货进行日常交易。然后是魏玛德国。第一次世界大战后,政府背负着不切实际的赔款,因此印钞票而不是征税或借贷。1920年100,1922年100,1923年1万亿(即1,000,000,000,000)。最近的一个例子是津巴布韦这个国家。政府印钞票来支付与其他非洲国家的战争和支付腐败官员的费用。1 月官方对美元汇率为 1,000 比 11,2004,107.5到 2008 年 1 月 1 日的 1 和10232009 年 1 月 1 日为 1。2009 年 1 月 1 日的该比率为100,000,000,000万亿(1亿万亿)。相比之下,美国的GDP约为20万亿美元。津巴布韦人民使用其他货币或易货贸易。

货币数量理论也为通货紧缩提供了一个简洁的解释,即不断降低价格。一个很好的例子是美国在 1865 年内战结束后的几十年里。北方在战争期间经历了大约 75% 的通货膨胀,因为战争的大部分资金来自税收和债券销售,而不是印钞。然而,战后政府希望避免通货膨胀,并决定以战前的速度恢复金本位制。政府停止印刷战争期间使用的美钞,也停止铸造银币。货币供应量的增长远低于工业化北方蓬勃发展的实体经济增长。1869 年和 1879 年的货币、收入和价格数据如表 4.1 所示。

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Exchange rate policy

货币主义者青睐浮动汇率。显然,他们赞成在竞争性市场中确定的价格,但他们也指出,允许汇率浮动允许货币政策集中于国内经济。浮动汇率是货币主义计划的一个组成部分。1944 年布雷顿森林体系采用固定汇率的国际金融体系(贬值可能性有限)后不久,米尔顿弗里德曼就提出了灵活汇率的理由。弗里德曼的著名论文(1953 年)起源于 1950 年为联邦政府机构写的一份备忘录。
奇怪的是,弗里德曼(1953)开始考虑一个国际收支顺差的国家。有五种方法可以使该国货币的供需平衡:

  • 允许市场不断调整汇率;
  • 使官方汇率跳跃;
  • 允许国内价格上涨;
  • 实施出口许可证等直接管制;或者
  • 使用国家的储备来供应所需的货币。
    一个国际收支逆差的国家也有五种选择:让汇率浮动,对固定汇率进行官方贬值,允许国内价格下跌,对进口征收关税等直接控制,或减少国家储备(即,运送黄金)。弗里德曼随后开始反对所有非浮动汇率的选择。

弗里德曼 (1953, p. 164) 对官方汇率的跳跃进行了特别严厉的批评。他说:

简而言之,在我看来,临时刚性汇率偶尔变化的制度是两个世界中最糟糕的一个:它既不能提供真正刚性和稳定的汇率在一个贸易不受限制的世界中所提供的预期稳定性,也不能提供意愿和能力调整内部价格结构以适应外部条件或灵活汇率的持续敏感性。

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考 请认准statistics-lab™

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金融工程代写

金融工程是使用数学技术来解决金融问题。金融工程使用计算机科学、统计学、经济学和应用数学领域的工具和知识来解决当前的金融问题,以及设计新的和创新的金融产品。

非参数统计代写

非参数统计指的是一种统计方法,其中不假设数据来自于由少数参数决定的规定模型;这种模型的例子包括正态分布模型和线性回归模型。

广义线性模型代考

广义线性模型(GLM)归属统计学领域,是一种应用灵活的线性回归模型。该模型允许因变量的偏差分布有除了正态分布之外的其它分布。

术语 广义线性模型(GLM)通常是指给定连续和/或分类预测因素的连续响应变量的常规线性回归模型。它包括多元线性回归,以及方差分析和方差分析(仅含固定效应)。

有限元方法代写

有限元方法(FEM)是一种流行的方法,用于数值解决工程和数学建模中出现的微分方程。典型的问题领域包括结构分析、传热、流体流动、质量运输和电磁势等传统领域。

有限元是一种通用的数值方法,用于解决两个或三个空间变量的偏微分方程(即一些边界值问题)。为了解决一个问题,有限元将一个大系统细分为更小、更简单的部分,称为有限元。这是通过在空间维度上的特定空间离散化来实现的,它是通过构建对象的网格来实现的:用于求解的数值域,它有有限数量的点。边界值问题的有限元方法表述最终导致一个代数方程组。该方法在域上对未知函数进行逼近。[1] 然后将模拟这些有限元的简单方程组合成一个更大的方程系统,以模拟整个问题。然后,有限元通过变化微积分使相关的误差函数最小化来逼近一个解决方案。

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随机分析代写


随机微积分是数学的一个分支,对随机过程进行操作。它允许为随机过程的积分定义一个关于随机过程的一致的积分理论。这个领域是由日本数学家伊藤清在第二次世界大战期间创建并开始的。

时间序列分析代写

随机过程,是依赖于参数的一组随机变量的全体,参数通常是时间。 随机变量是随机现象的数量表现,其时间序列是一组按照时间发生先后顺序进行排列的数据点序列。通常一组时间序列的时间间隔为一恒定值(如1秒,5分钟,12小时,7天,1年),因此时间序列可以作为离散时间数据进行分析处理。研究时间序列数据的意义在于现实中,往往需要研究某个事物其随时间发展变化的规律。这就需要通过研究该事物过去发展的历史记录,以得到其自身发展的规律。

回归分析代写

多元回归分析渐进(Multiple Regression Analysis Asymptotics)属于计量经济学领域,主要是一种数学上的统计分析方法,可以分析复杂情况下各影响因素的数学关系,在自然科学、社会和经济学等多个领域内应用广泛。

MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中,其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括:数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发,包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统,其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题,尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题,而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问,这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展,得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中,它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域,MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要,工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数(M 文件)的综合集合,可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。

R语言代写问卷设计与分析代写
PYTHON代写回归分析与线性模型代写
MATLAB代写方差分析与试验设计代写
STATA代写机器学习/统计学习代写
SPSS代写计量经济学代写
EVIEWS代写时间序列分析代写
EXCEL代写深度学习代写
SQL代写各种数据建模与可视化代写

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