### 经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|ECOS3007

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• Statistical Inference 统计推断
• Statistical Computing 统计计算
• (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
• Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
• Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

## 经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|James Tobin and refinements to Keynesian theory

James Tobin was a Keynesian economist and winner of the Nobel Prize. His longterm project was to further and improve upon the Keynesian theory. The maverick Keynesian Hyman Minsky, whom we will meet later in this chapter, lamented (1975) that Keynes suffered a heart attack in 1937 and was unable to participate in the refinements to his theories. However, James Tobin was there to improve upon Keynes while remaining in the same spirit. This section examines Tobin’s theories of real investment and the demand for money.

Tobin’s theory of real investment (1969) is now the accepted theory and is known as the $\mathrm{Q}$ theory of investment. $\mathrm{Q}$ is defined as the ratio of the market value of a real investment to its cost. For example, real estate developers compare the cost of a project to the price at which it can be sold. A ratio greater than $1.0$ indicates an incentive to undertake the investment. It is understood that real estate projects take time to be completed, so a lag is built into the model. So where does $Q$ come from?
The value of $Q$ includes the present discounted value of the stream of outputs attributable to one unit of capital, divided by the cost of adding the unit of capital. It is assumed that capital has a rising supply price. Suppose the value of $Q$ for the first unit of additional capital is $1.2, \mathrm{Q}$ for the second unit is $1.15$ because of the cost of the second unit of capital is higher than for the first unit, $Q$ for the third unit is 1.1, etc. Investment will proceed until the last unit of capital added has a $Q$ of $1.0$. So the rate of investment depends upon $\mathrm{Q}$ for the first unit of additional capital and the (positive) slope of the supply curve of additional capital.
$Q$ theory has been extended to include investments made under conditions of risk. Risk refers to situations in which future values of key variables have known probability distributions. In this case, the present discounted value of output produced by adding a unit of capital is a random variable. In the case of risk, the discount rate is adjusted for market risk. Note two things about the theory. First, the theory has been worked out for risky situations but not for situations of uncertainty when the future is just about completely unknown. Second, the value of an investment depends upon expectations of the price of future outputs. So investment decisions depend critically upon opinions regarding future market values. What could go wrong here?

## 经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|New Keynesian economics

What is known as the new Keynesian economics started to develop during the 1970 s, the period of high unemployment and inflation – a combination inconsistent with the standard Keynesian model. Keynesians adapted their models to account for the events of the 1970 s, and these adaptations are described in Chapters 4 and 5 . Mankiw and Romer (1991) define new Keynesian models as having these features:

• The model violates the classical dichotomy between the real and money economies. In other words, changes in the supply of money have real economic effects.
• The model presumes that there are real imperfections in the economy that explain the nature of economic fluctuations.
New Keynesians devised a variety of models to explain the “real imperfections.”
An important part of that research agenda was providing microeconomic foundations for the stickiness of wages and prices that cause markets not to clear rapidly. In particular, the stickiness of wages leading to involuntary unemployment was a critical topic. Janet Yellen (1984) provided a good summary of the resulting theoretical research. She began (1984, p. 200) with:

Keynesian economists hold it to be self-evident that business cycles are characterized by involuntary unemployment. But construction of a model of the cycle with involuntary unemployment faces the obvious difficulty of explaining why the labor market does not clear. Involuntarily unemployed people, by definition, want to work at less than the going wage rate. Why don’t firms cut wages, thereby increasing profits?

The models she discussed are based on the efficiency wage hypothesis – the idea that labor productivity depends on the real wage paid. A firm will offer a wage rate that maximizes its profits, and that wage induces an efficient amount of “effort” on the part of the workers. The “real imperfection” idea is that worker effort cannot be monitored continuously (i.e., information is not complete), so workers are motivated by good wages. Unemployed workers would like to work at this efficient wage rate or even a lower wage, but the firm will not hire them. The firm has already set employment and the wage to maximize profits, so it will not hire more workers at that wage. Furthermore, they will not lower the wage and hire more workers because the lower wage will reduce labor productivity. In other words, the real wage rate is not flexible in the downward direction because labor productivity will fall.

## 经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|The financial instability hypothesis

Keynes included an extended discussion of financial markets and the tendency to speculate on changes in asset prices. His conclusion $(1936$, p. 159):

Speculators may do no harm as bubbles on a steady stream of enterprise. But the position is serious when enterprise becomes the bubble on a whirlpool of speculation. When the capital development of a country becomes the by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done.

The late Hyman Minsky, a Keynesian who was ignored by most Keynesians in his lifetime, is now back in fashion. Minsky objected strenuously to the neoclassical synthesis of Hicks and Hansen. His chief objection is the much-too-simple model of investment spending in the Hicksian IS-LM model, in which investment is simply a function of the interest rate. He argued that Keynes without including the inherent instability of financial markets is akin to “Hamlet without the prince” – in other words, the play staged without the central character. Minsky (1975) supplemented the Keynesian approach by arguing that during a boom period, asset prices increase and, in order to take advantage of increasing values, the private sector will figure out ways and means of expanding credit and financial leverage that defeat attempts at regulation. “Animal spirits” take over. Financial bubbles can and do exist. This sounds familiar, does it not? Recall that the $\mathrm{Q}$ theory of investment includes the effect of expected changes in asset prices. Then, some event occurs that starts financial collapse and the process of deleveraging. In particular, increases in investment in assets such as real estate and durable equipment took place in response to the increase in their market values. Investors discover too late that they have created too many real assets. The annual incomes from those assets fall below expectations. Hedge investors (cash flow sufficient to cover all debt service) become speculative investors (cash flow covers only interest of debt, with no return to the investor), speculative investors become Ponzi investors (cash flow insufficient to cover interest payments), and Ponzi investors become zombies (walking dead). Investment collapses, and Keynesian remedies are needed. The process is inherent in the nature of a capitalist economy, according to Keynes as interpreted by Minsky.
Now let’s turn to Minsky’s intellectual heirs. The late Charles Kindleberger’s classic book Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises is based on Minsky’s model. This book is an encyclopedic account of financial crises through history. One can predict that Kindleberger’s coauthor, Robert Aliber, will update the book soon to include the recent crisis. Similarly, Robert Shiller has gained prominence from a series of books that argues that financial bubbles are the cause of financial crises. One of his latest is The Subprime Solution, in which he states that the housing market bubble began in 1997 (well before the U.S. Fed cut interest rates starting in 2001), and that the actions taken by the private sector can be explained by the existence of rising housing prices. Why not make loans to anyone when the price of the house will always go up? Who cares if the borrowers are not qualified? But housing suppliers responded and the bubble burst – as it always does.

## 经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|New Keynesian economics

• 该模型违反了实体经济和货币经济之间的经典二分法。换句话说，货币供应量的变化具有实际的经济影响。
• 该模型假设经济中存在真正的不完美性来解释经济波动的性质。
新凯恩斯主义者设计了多种模型来解释“真正的缺陷”。
该研究议程的一个重要部分是为导致市场无法迅速出清的工资和价格粘性提供微观经济基础。特别是，导致非自愿失业的工资粘性是一个关键话题。Janet Yellen (1984) 很好地总结了由此产生的理论研究。她从（1984 年，第 200 页）开始：

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## MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。