### 经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|how fiscal policy works

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• Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

## 经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|how fiscal policy works

Fiscal policy involves making changes in government spending and taxation. Both the amounts of government spending and taxation change with overall economic activity. In a recession, tax revenues decline because households and firms have less taxable income. And expenditures increase because government programs for unemployment insurance and welfare payments rise. When the economy is booming, the reverse happens; tax revenues go up and these types of expenditures decline.

There is basic algebra for tax revenue that you need to understand. Tax revenue (Rev) equals the tax rate (T) times the tax base (B), or
$$\operatorname{Rev}=\mathrm{T} \times \mathrm{B}$$
So in a recession, the tax base declines and revenue falls unless the tax rate is increased. And if the tax rate is increased, revenue will rise as long as the increase in the tax rate does not cause the tax base to decline “too much.” Now comes the big idea. A reduction in the tax rate might cause the tax base to increase enough so that revenue will go up. Does this happen? With a lower tax rate, will workers and firms work more and increase their taxable incomes? After all, their efforts now pay off more. But will those increased efforts increase the tax base enough to make revenue increase? Or will workers and firms actually work less because they can make the same after-tax income with less effort? Or will there be no change in work effort? Under these last two scenarios, tax revenue definitely will fall. These questions will pop up later in the book, especially when we encounter what is called supply-side economics.

So let us get back to fiscal policy. There two basic types of fiscal policy: automatic stabilizers and discretionary policy. Automatic stabilizers are those policies built into the fiscal system that will increase expenditures during a macroeconomic downturn and decline during an upturn. Unemployment compensation and welfare programs are examples. On the taxation side, a progressive tax means that a taxpayer with a higher tax base pays a higher tax rate at the margin (the tax on an additional dollar or pound of income). For example, a household might face the following tax schedule:During an economic downturn, the household might experience a decline in taxable income from $\$ 90,000$to$\$60,000$ that puts it in a lower “tax bracket.” The household sees a decline in its marginal tax rate from $22 \%$ to $12 \%$ – quite a decline. In fact, the tax payment falls from $\$ 18,486$to$\$6,812$, a decline of $64 \%$ with a decline in income of $33 \%$. (I invite you to figure the taxes under both scenarios. Remember that the tax on the first $\$ 19,400$is$\$1,940$.) With a progressive tax system, the household is somewhat cushioned in a downturn by a disproportional drop in its tax payment.

## 经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|How to compute percentage change

The appendix can be skipped upon the first reading of the book but will need to be studied when you begin to read chapters about the macroeconomic episodes that involve looking closely at data.

Very often, we shall examine percentage changes in many of the macroeconomics variables such as GDP, investment, prices, and money supply. You must get used to computing percentage changes, so here is a quick tutorial. You should have a calculator handy that includes the option of providing the natural logarithm of a number. We’ll use the GDP deflator index numbers seen earlier, which are

The basic computation for percentage change from one year to the next, in this case from 2010 to 2011 , is
$$(103.31-101.22) / 101.22=.0206 \text {, or } 2.06 \text { percent } .$$
Here is the quick way to do this one – one calculation instead of two:
$103.31 / 101.22=1.0206$, so the percentage change is $2.06$
If the change is negative, you still compute percentage change by subtracting the earlier number from the later number and dividing by the earlier number. For example, if investment falls from $\$ 70$billion to$\$60$ billion, compute $(60-70) / 70$ $=-.143$, or $-14.3$ percent.

It is obvious that the percentage change from 2009 to 2013 is $6.73$ percent because the index for 2009 is $100.00$. In general, one would compute
$$106.73 / 100.00=1.0673$$
What is the average percentage change over the four years from 2009 to 2013 ? One method is simply to divide $6.73$ by 4 , or $1.68$ percent. This method can be inaccurate if the elapse of time is long or if the changes are large. Here is the technically correct way to do it. Write
$$(1+i)(1+i)(1+i)(1+i)=(1+i)^{4}=1.0673$$
Here, $i$ is the annual percentage change that produces an increase of $6.73$ percent over four years. This is the equation for compound interest from investing $\$ 1$for four years at interest rate$i$. The trick is to solve for i. Clearly$(1+i)$is equal to the fourth root of$1.0673$, but the higher roots are difficult to compute. Instead, take the natural logarithm of both sides of the equation, where ln stands for natural logarithm: $$4 \ln (1+i)=\ln (1.0673)$$ ## 经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|schools of thought in macroeconomics The field of macroeconomics can be broken down into several schools of thought, and this book provides an introduction to each of them. No doubt the scholars who have spent their lives developing and refining a particular school of thought will find that I have simplified things too much. I submit that simplification cannot be avoided in an introductory treatment. That is what textbooks do. The purpose of the book is to provide a sensible introduction to each theory, and to see how each theory stacks up against the data for various episodes. Most textbooks cover only one theory, and do not systematically assess how well that theory accounts for what actually happened. One textbook by Snowdon and Vane (2005) covers all of the schools of thought up to 2005 and includes interviews with important scholars associated with each one. Some discussion of actual events is included here and there. But the book is over 700 pages in length and is more appropriate for graduate students. The schools of thought presented in this book are as follows: • Keynesian theory, with discussion of financial instability and other additions to basic Keynesian theory made over the years. Keynesians emphasize the role of aggregate demand and its components as the source of fluctuations in the economy. The shift in the demand curve in Figure$1.1$gives the basic idea. They advocate the use of active monetary policy and fiscal policy (government spending and taxation) to influence aggregate demand and stabilize the economy. • Monetarism associated with Milton Friedman and others, with extension to include rational expectations (the idea that people form realistic expectations that influence their current behavior). Monetarists see changes in the supply of money as a principal cause of the ups and downs of the economy. Changes in the supply of money are thought mainly to influence the demand side of the economy. They argue that activist monetary policy is dangerous and should be avoided. They think that the supply of money should be governed by a simple rule. ## 宏观经济学代考 ## 经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|how fiscal policy works 财政政策涉及改变政府支出和税收。政府支出和税收的数额都随着整体经济活动而变化。在经济衰退中，税收收入下降，因为家庭和企业的应税收入减少。支出增加，因为政府的失业保险和福利支付计划增加。当经济繁荣时，情况正好相反；税收增加，这些类型的支出减少。 您需要了解税收的基本代数。税收收入 (Rev) 等于税率 (T) 乘以税基 (B)，或 转=吨×乙 因此，在经济衰退中，除非提高税率，否则税基会下降，收入也会下降。如果提高税率，只要提高税率不会导致税基“下降太多”，收入就会增加。现在来了一个大主意。降低税率可能会导致税基增加到足以使收入增加。这会发生吗？税率越低，工人和公司会工作得更多并增加他们的应税收入吗？毕竟，他们的努力现在得到了更多回报。但这些增加的努力是否会增加税基足以增加收入？或者工人和公司实际上会更少工作，因为他们可以用更少的努力获得相同的税后收入？还是工作努力没有变化？在这最后两种情况下，税收肯定会下降。 所以让我们回到财政政策。财政政策有两种基本类型：自动稳定器和酌情政策。自动稳定器是那些内置于财政体系中的政策，这些政策将在宏观经济低迷时增加支出，在经济好转时减少支出。失业补偿和福利计划就是例子。在税收方面，累进税意味着具有较高税基的纳税人在边际上支付较高的税率（对额外的美元或英镑收入征税）。例如，一个家庭可能面临以下税收计划：在经济低迷时期，家庭可能会经历应税收入的下降$90,000至$60,000这使其处于较低的“税级”中。家庭的边际税率从22%至12%- 相当下降。事实上，纳税额从$18,486至$6,812, 下降64%随着收入的下降33%. （我邀请您计算两种情况下的税收。请记住，第一种情况下的税收$19,400是$1,940.) 在累进税制的情况下，家庭在经济低迷时期由于其纳税额的不成比例下降而受到一定程度的缓冲。 ## 经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|How to compute percentage change 第一次阅读本书时可以跳过附录，但当您开始阅读涉及密切关注数据的宏观经济事件的章节时，需要研究该附录。 很多时候，我们会检查许多宏观经济学变量的百分比变化，例如 GDP、投资、价格和货币供应量。您必须习惯于计算百分比变化，所以这里有一个快速教程。您应该有一个方便的计算器，其中包括提供数字自然对数的选项。我们将使用前面看到的 GDP 平减指数，即 从一年到下一年的百分比变化的基本计算，在这种情况下是从 2010 到 2011 ，是 (103.31−101.22)/101.22=.0206， 或者 2.06 百分 . 这是执行此操作的快速方法 – 一次计算而不是两次： 103.31/101.22=1.0206，所以百分比变化是2.06 如果变化是负数，您仍然可以通过从较晚的数字中减去较早的数字并除以较早的数字来计算百分比变化。例如，如果投资从$70亿到$60十亿，计算(60−70)/70 =−.143， 或者−14.3百分。 很明显，从 2009 年到 2013 年的百分比变化是6.73百分比，因为 2009 年的指数是100.00. 一般来说，人们会计算 106.73/100.00=1.0673 从 2009 年到 2013 年这四年的平均百分比变化是多少？一种方法是简单地划分6.73由 4 或1.68百分。如果经过的时间很长或变化很大，则此方法可能不准确。这是技术上正确的方法。写 (1+一世)(1+一世)(1+一世)(1+一世)=(1+一世)4=1.0673 这里，一世是产生增加的年度百分比变化6.73超过四年的百分比。这是投资复利的方程式$1四年利率一世. 诀窍是解决 i。清楚地(1+一世)等于的第四个根1.0673，但较高的根很难计算。相反，取等式两边的自然对数，其中 ln 代表自然对数：

4ln⁡(1+一世)=ln⁡(1.0673)

## 经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|schools of thought in macroeconomics

• 凯恩斯理论，讨论了金融不稳定和多年来对基本凯恩斯理论的其他补充。凯恩斯主义者强调总需求及其组成部分作为经济波动来源的作用。图中需求曲线的移动1.1给出了基本思路。他们主张使用积极的货币政策和财政政策（政府支出和税收）来影响总需求并稳定经济。
• 与米尔顿弗里德曼和其他人相关的货币主义，延伸到包括理性期望（人们形成影响他们当前行为的现实期望的想法）。货币主义者将货币供应的变化视为经济起伏的主要原因。人们认为货币供应的变化主要影响经济的需求方面。他们认为激进的货币政策是危险的，应该避免。他们认为货币供应应该遵循一个简单的规则。

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## MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。