经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|How the Economy as a Whole Works

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  • Statistical Inference 统计推断
  • Statistical Computing 统计计算
  • Advanced Probability Theory 高等概率论
  • Advanced Mathematical Statistics 高等数理统计学
  • (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
  • Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
  • Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
  • Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础
经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|How the Economy as a Whole Works

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|A Country’s Standard of Living Depends

The differences in living standards around the world are staggering. In 2017, the average American earned about $\$ 60,000$. In the same year, the average German earned about $\$ 51,000$, the average Chinese about $\$ 17,000$, and the average Nigerian only $\$ 6,000$. Not surprisingly, this large variation in average income is reflected in various measures of quality of life. Citizens of high-income countries have more computers, more cars, better nutrition, better healthcare, and a longer life expectancy than do citizens of low-income countries.

Changes in living standards over time are also large. In the United States, incomes have historically grown about 2 percent per year (after adjusting for changes in the cost of living). At this rate, average income doubles every 35 years. Over the past century, average U.S. income has risen about eightfold.

What explains these large differences in living standards among countries and over time? The answer is surprisingly simple. Almost all variation in living standards is attributable to differences in countries’ productivity – that is, the amount of goods and services produced by each unit of labor input. In nations where workers can produce a large quantity of goods and services per hour, most people enjoy a high standard of living; in nations where workers are less productive, most people endure a more meager existence. Similarly, the growth rate of a nation’s productivity determines the growth rate of its average income.

The relationship between productivity and living standards is simple, but its implications are far-reaching. If productivity is the primary determinant of living standards, other explanations must be less important. For example, it might be tempting to credit labor unions or minimum-wage laws for the rise in living standards of American workers over the past century. Yet the real hero of American workers is their rising productivity. As another example, some commentators have claimed that increased competition from Japan and other countries explained the slow growth in U.S. incomes during the 1970 s and 1980 s. Yet the real villain was flagging productivity growth in the United States.

The relationship between productivity and living standards also has profound implications for public policy. When thinking about how any policy will affect living standards, the key question is how it will affect our ability to produce goods and services. To boost living standards, policymakers need to raise productivity by ensuring that workers are well educated, have the tools they need to produce goods and services, and have access to the best available technology.

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Prices Rise When the Government Prints

In January 1921 , a daily newspaper in Germany cost $0.30$ marks. Less than 2 years later, in November 1922, the same newspaper cost $70,000,000$ marks. All other prices in the economy rose by similar amounts. This episode is one of history’s most spectacular examples of inflation, an increase in the overall level of prices in the economy.

Although the United States has never experienced inflation even close to that of Germany in the 1920 s, inflation has at times been a problem. During the 1970 s, the overall level of prices more than doubled, and President Gerald Ford called inflation “puhlic enemy numher noe” Dy rontrast inflation in the twn iterates of the 21 st century has run about 2 percent per year; at this rate, it takes 35 years for prices to double. Because high inflation imposes various costs on society, keeping inflation at a reasonable rate is a goal of economic policymakers around the world.

What causes inflation? In almost all cases of large or persistent inflation, the culprit is growth in the quantity of money. When a government creates large quantities of the nation’s money, the value of the money falls. In Germany in the early 1920 s, when prices were on average tripling every month, the quantity of money was also tripling every month. Although less dramatic, the economic history of the United States points to a similar conclusion: The high inflation of the 1970 s was associated with rapid growth in the quantity of money, and the return of low inflation in the 1980 s was associated with slower growth in the quantity of money.

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Society Faces a Short-Run Trade-Off

While an increase in the quantity of money primarily raises prices in the long run, the short-run story is more complex. Most economists describe the short-run effects of money growth as follows:

  • Increasing the amount of money in the economy stimulates the overall level of spending and thus the demand for goods and services.
  • Higher demand may over time cause firms to raise their prices, but in the meantime, it also encourages them to hire more workers and produce a larger quantity of goods and services.
  • More hiring means lower unemployment.
    This line of reasoning leads to one final economy-wide trade-off: a short-run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment.

Although some economists still question these ideas, most accept that society faces a short-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment. This simply means that, over a period of a year or two, many economic policies push inflation and unemployment in opposite directions. Policymakers face this trade-off regardless of whether inflation and unemployment both start out at high levels (as they did in the early 1980s), at low levels (as they did in the late 1990 s), or someplace in between. This short-run trade-off plays a key role in the analysis of the business cycle – the irregular and largely unpredictable fluctuations in economic activity, as measured by the production of goods and services or the number of people employed.

Policymakers can exploit the short-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment using various policy instruments. By changing the amount that the government spends, the amount it taxes, and the amount of money it prints, policymakers can influence the overall demand for goods and services. Changes in demand in turn influence the combination of inflation and unemployment that the economy experiences in the short run. Because these instruments of economic policy are so powerful, how policymakers should use them to control the economy, if at all, is a subject of continuing debate.

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|How the Economy as a Whole Works


经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|A Country’s Standard of Living Depends

世界各地生活水平的差异是惊人的。2017 年,美国人的平均收入约为$60,000. 同年,德国人的平均收入约为$51,000, 一般中国人大约$17,000,只有普通尼日利亚人$6,000. 毫不奇怪,平均收入的这种巨大差异反映在生活质量的各种衡量标准中。与低收入国家的公民相比,高收入国家的公民拥有更多的电脑、更多的汽车、更好的营养、更好的医疗保健和更长的预期寿命。

随着时间的推移,生活水平的变化也很大。在美国,收入历来每年增长约 2%(根据生活成本的变化进行调整后)。按照这个速度,平均收入每 35 年翻一番。在过去的一个世纪里,美国的平均收入增长了大约八倍。


生产力和生活水平之间的关系很简单,但其影响却是深远的。如果生产力是生活水平的主要决定因素,那么其他解释一定不那么重要。例如,过去一个世纪美国工人生活水平的提高可能会让人相信工会或最低工资法。然而,美国工人的真正英雄是他们不断提高的生产力。再举一个例子,一些评论家声称,来自日本和其他国家的竞争加剧解释了 1970 年代和 1980 年代美国收入增长缓慢的原因。然而,真正的恶棍是美国的生产力增长停滞不前。


经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Prices Rise When the Government Prints

1921年1月,德国的一份日报成本0.30分数。不到 2 年后,也就是 1922 年 11 月,同样的报纸成本70,000,000分数。经济中的所有其他价格都上涨了类似的幅度。这一事件是历史上最引人注目的通货膨胀例子之一,即经济中总体价格水平的上升。

尽管美国在 1920 年代从未经历过甚至接近德国的通货膨胀,但通货膨胀有时是个问题。在 1970 年代,总体价格水平翻了一番多,杰拉尔德·福特总统称通胀为“公敌数不胜数”,在 21 世纪的两次迭代中,Dyrontrast 的通胀率每年约为 2%;按照这个速度,价格翻一番需要35年。由于高通胀会给社会带来各种成本,因此将通胀保持在合理水平是全球经济决策者的目标。

什么导致通货膨胀?在几乎所有大规模或持续通货膨胀的情况下,罪魁祸首是货币数量的增长。当政府为国家创造大量货币时,货币的价值就会下降。在 1920 年代初期的德国,当价格平均每月翻三倍时,货币数量也每月翻三倍。美国的经济史虽然不那么引人注目,但也得出了类似的结论:1970 年代的高通胀与货币数量的快速增长有关,而 1980 年代低通胀的回归与增长放缓有关在货币数量上。

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Society Faces a Short-Run Trade-Off


  • 增加经济中的货币数量会刺激整体支出水平,从而刺激对商品和服务的需求。
  • 随着时间的推移,更高的需求可能会导致公司提高价格,但与此同时,它也鼓励他们雇用更多的工人并生产更多的商品和服务。
  • 更多的招聘意味着更低的失业率。

尽管一些经济学家仍然质疑这些观点,但大多数人接受社会面临通货膨胀和失业之间的短期权衡。这仅仅意味着,在一两年内,许多经济政策将通货膨胀和失业推向相反的方向。无论通货膨胀和失业率一开始是处于高水平(如 1980 年代初所做的那样)、处于低水平(如 1990 年代末所做的那样),还是介于两者之间,政策制定者都面临着这种权衡。这种短期权衡在商业周期分析中发挥着关键作用——经济活动的不规则且很大程度上不可预测的波动,以商品和服务的生产或就业人数来衡量。


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术语 广义线性模型(GLM)通常是指给定连续和/或分类预测因素的连续响应变量的常规线性回归模型。它包括多元线性回归,以及方差分析和方差分析(仅含固定效应)。



有限元是一种通用的数值方法,用于解决两个或三个空间变量的偏微分方程(即一些边界值问题)。为了解决一个问题,有限元将一个大系统细分为更小、更简单的部分,称为有限元。这是通过在空间维度上的特定空间离散化来实现的,它是通过构建对象的网格来实现的:用于求解的数值域,它有有限数量的点。边界值问题的有限元方法表述最终导致一个代数方程组。该方法在域上对未知函数进行逼近。[1] 然后将模拟这些有限元的简单方程组合成一个更大的方程系统,以模拟整个问题。然后,有限元通过变化微积分使相关的误差函数最小化来逼近一个解决方案。





随机过程,是依赖于参数的一组随机变量的全体,参数通常是时间。 随机变量是随机现象的数量表现,其时间序列是一组按照时间发生先后顺序进行排列的数据点序列。通常一组时间序列的时间间隔为一恒定值(如1秒,5分钟,12小时,7天,1年),因此时间序列可以作为离散时间数据进行分析处理。研究时间序列数据的意义在于现实中,往往需要研究某个事物其随时间发展变化的规律。这就需要通过研究该事物过去发展的历史记录,以得到其自身发展的规律。


多元回归分析渐进(Multiple Regression Analysis Asymptotics)属于计量经济学领域,主要是一种数学上的统计分析方法,可以分析复杂情况下各影响因素的数学关系,在自然科学、社会和经济学等多个领域内应用广泛。


MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中,其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括:数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发,包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统,其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题,尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题,而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问,这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展,得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中,它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域,MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要,工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数(M 文件)的综合集合,可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。