### 经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Keynesian theory

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• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

## 经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Keynesian theory

John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946) is generally regarded as the most important economist of the 20th century. Prior to the publication in 1936 of his most important book, The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, the field of economics was known just as economics (or as political economy). After Keynes, economics was divided into microeconomics and macroeconomics. The purposes of this chapter are to present Keynesian theory as Keynes himself did, to explain why it was (and is) important. Then, Chapter 3 shows how Keynesians interpreted and extended the theory – somewhat at variance from Keynes in the General Theory. I believe that you, the student of macroeconomics, should know what Keynes said and why he said it. John Maynard Keynes is the subject of a three-volume biography by Robert Skidelsky $(1983,1992,2000)$ that is the best biography of any economist.
Keynes was the son of the English economist John Neville Keynes and a brilliant student of philosophy, mathematics, and economics at Cambridge University. He pursued an academic career at Cambridge and achieved international fame with the publication in 1919 of The Economic Consequences of Peace, a strong critique of the Versailles Treaty at the end of World War I that imposed harsh conditions on Germany that would inhibit the recovery of the entire European economy. He was a prominent member of the Bloomsbury Group, the remarkable literary group that flourished in London in the 1920 s and 1930 s. Keynes made a living from his writing, his investments, and lecturing at Cambridge. He also served as bursar of Kings College, Cambridge, which meant that he managed the investments of the college. He held a position at the Treasury during World War I and was recalled to an unpaid position at the Treasury in 1940 by the government of Prime Minister Winston Churchill. He suffered a heart attack on May 16, 1937 at age 53 after a series of illnesses and symptoms during the winter of 1936-1937. He spent the years of World War II working very hard on behalf of his country. While the General Theory is devoted to the analysis of a single nation, Keynes was also an internationalist who worked to improve the system of international trade for his entire career. He was England’s chief representative at the Bretton Woods conference in 1944 that set up the postwar international financial system that includes the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. Given the fragile nature of his health after 1937, Keynes’s biographer Robert Skidelsky (2000, p. xvii) began the third volume of his biography with:Keynes suffered a fatal heart attack on April 21, 1946, a victim of heart disease at age 62 . Thus, within the span of a year did heart disease claim at a relatively young age the century’s most important economist as well as the century’s most important political leader, Franklin Delano Roosevelt. FDR died on April 12, 1945 at age $63 .$ Heart disease was little understood and was essentially untreatable in those days. Thankfully, much progress has been made on heart disease since the days of FDR and Keynes.

If Keynes had lived to the age of 86 , he very likely (surely?) would have received the first Nobel Prize in economics that was awarded in 1969. That first Nobel Prize was awarded jointly to Ragnar Frisch and Jan Tinbergen for their statistical and modeling work in macroeconomics that had served to further Keynesian economics. Frisch had begun his work prior to the publication of the General Theory, but Tinbergen’s first book was published in 1939 and clearly is a statistical implementation of Keynesian theory.

We begin with a brief introduction to the state of macroeconomic thinking prior to the General Theory.

## 经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|classical macroeconomics

The boom-and-bust cycles of a market economy had been an important topic for economists long before Keynes. Indeed, it was a topic of vital concern for Keynes before he became the Keynes of the General Theory. There was no unified classical (i.e., pre-Keynesian) macroeconomic theory, but now there is some agreement on the major features of monetary theory prior to Keynes’s General Theory. This presentation follows the Snowdon and Vane (2005) history of macroeconomics. In essence, the classical economists separated the real and the monetary economies. Output and employment are determined in a perfectly competitive economy in which all markets clear and all participants in the economy have stable expectations, and the supply of money determines the overall price level.

The demand for labor depends upon the real wage rate. In the short run, capital is fixed and the demand for labor is equal to labor’s marginal product. The output produced by the last worker hired is presumed to decline as more workers are hired because the capital stock is fixed. Workers are hired as long as the marginal product of the last worker exceeds the real wage rate (by as little as one cent). The supply of labor increases with the real wage. The competitive labor market establishes a real wage equal to the marginal product of labor, so the total supply of output (in the short run) is set by the fixed capital stock, the schedule of the marginal product of labor, and the supply of labor. See Figure 2.1. This level of output is the fullemployment output because there is no unemployment – other than the normal, temporary movement of workers from one job to another.

How is the demand for output determined in the classical system? As you already know, and ignoring government and foreign trade for now, output of final goods and services is demanded for current consumption and for real investment goods. Workers earn wages and spend on consumption or save. Saving is presumed to be a function of the return to saving – the interest rate. Firms earn the return to capital, which is passed on to the owners, who also either spend on consumption or save. Total expenditure in real terms must equal total income, which equals the sum of consumption and saving in real terms. The supply of savings depends upon the interest rate, and those savings are provided to firms for the purpose of purchasing real investment goods. The demand for real investment goods also depends upon the interest rate; a lower interest rate increases the amount of investment that can earn a profit for the firm. The simplified statement of the theory is “supply creates its own demand.” This statement came to be known as Say’s Law.

## 经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Introduction to the general theory of employment

The General Theory was written during the depths of the Great Depression of the early $1930 \mathrm{~s}$. It is a product of its time, to be sure. As noted in Chapter 1, Keynes believed that useful economics is a product of its time. His purpose was to develop a theory that explained the obvious facts that the capitalist economies of the day were not generating anything close to full employment, and that this state of affairs had existed for several years. The economic theory of the time, as outlined in the previous section, which Keynes called the postulates of classical economics and dismissed in a few pages, was not capable of providing an explanation of these overwhelming facts.
Keynes did not invent his theory out of whole cloth. He used ideas that he and others had been formulating in the $1930 \mathrm{~s}$, added some new ideas, and produced a new and coherent theory of a national economy. His introductory summary of the theory (1936, Ch. 3) recalls his Marshallian supply-and-demand roots at Cambridge and is called the “Principle of Effective Demand.” Keynes starts with the concept of aggregate supply, in which the total output of the national economy is a function of employment. The aggregate supply function is $Q_{s}=\varphi(\mathrm{N})$

Here, $Q_{s}$ is aggregate output and $N$ is employment. The notation $\varphi(N)$ means “is a function of N.” The other half of the story is aggregate demand (1936, p. 25), “the proceeds which entrepreneurs expect to receive from the employment of $\mathrm{N}$ men.” The aggregate demand function is written
$$Q_{d}=f(N)$$
Aggregate demand is also a function of employment (i.e., the number of people earning money) but a different function than aggregate supply. The volume of aggregate employment is given by the intersection of the aggregate supply function and the aggregate demand function. The value of $Q_{d}$, aggregate demand, at this point is called effective demand. Keynes asserted that the classical economists believed that supply creates its own demand through the earning of wages, interest, and profits so that $Q_{s}=Q_{d}$ for all levels of employment.

## 经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Introduction to the general theory of employment

《通论》写于早期大萧条的最深处1930 s. 可以肯定的是，它是时代的产物。如第一章所述，凯恩斯相信有用的经济学是时代的产物。他的目的是发展一种理论来解释当时的资本主义经济并没有产生任何接近充分就业的明显事实，而且这种情况已经存在了好几年。当时的经济理论，如前一节所述，凯恩斯将其称为古典经济学的假设，并在几页纸中驳回，无法解释这些压倒性的事实。

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## MATLAB代写

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