经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Keynesian theory

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经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Keynesian theory

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Keynesian theory

John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946) is generally regarded as the most important economist of the 20th century. Prior to the publication in 1936 of his most important book, The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, the field of economics was known just as economics (or as political economy). After Keynes, economics was divided into microeconomics and macroeconomics. The purposes of this chapter are to present Keynesian theory as Keynes himself did, to explain why it was (and is) important. Then, Chapter 3 shows how Keynesians interpreted and extended the theory – somewhat at variance from Keynes in the General Theory. I believe that you, the student of macroeconomics, should know what Keynes said and why he said it. John Maynard Keynes is the subject of a three-volume biography by Robert Skidelsky $(1983,1992,2000)$ that is the best biography of any economist.
Keynes was the son of the English economist John Neville Keynes and a brilliant student of philosophy, mathematics, and economics at Cambridge University. He pursued an academic career at Cambridge and achieved international fame with the publication in 1919 of The Economic Consequences of Peace, a strong critique of the Versailles Treaty at the end of World War I that imposed harsh conditions on Germany that would inhibit the recovery of the entire European economy. He was a prominent member of the Bloomsbury Group, the remarkable literary group that flourished in London in the 1920 s and 1930 s. Keynes made a living from his writing, his investments, and lecturing at Cambridge. He also served as bursar of Kings College, Cambridge, which meant that he managed the investments of the college. He held a position at the Treasury during World War I and was recalled to an unpaid position at the Treasury in 1940 by the government of Prime Minister Winston Churchill. He suffered a heart attack on May 16, 1937 at age 53 after a series of illnesses and symptoms during the winter of 1936-1937. He spent the years of World War II working very hard on behalf of his country. While the General Theory is devoted to the analysis of a single nation, Keynes was also an internationalist who worked to improve the system of international trade for his entire career. He was England’s chief representative at the Bretton Woods conference in 1944 that set up the postwar international financial system that includes the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. Given the fragile nature of his health after 1937, Keynes’s biographer Robert Skidelsky (2000, p. xvii) began the third volume of his biography with:Keynes suffered a fatal heart attack on April 21, 1946, a victim of heart disease at age 62 . Thus, within the span of a year did heart disease claim at a relatively young age the century’s most important economist as well as the century’s most important political leader, Franklin Delano Roosevelt. FDR died on April 12, 1945 at age $63 .$ Heart disease was little understood and was essentially untreatable in those days. Thankfully, much progress has been made on heart disease since the days of FDR and Keynes.

If Keynes had lived to the age of 86 , he very likely (surely?) would have received the first Nobel Prize in economics that was awarded in 1969. That first Nobel Prize was awarded jointly to Ragnar Frisch and Jan Tinbergen for their statistical and modeling work in macroeconomics that had served to further Keynesian economics. Frisch had begun his work prior to the publication of the General Theory, but Tinbergen’s first book was published in 1939 and clearly is a statistical implementation of Keynesian theory.

We begin with a brief introduction to the state of macroeconomic thinking prior to the General Theory.

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|classical macroeconomics

The boom-and-bust cycles of a market economy had been an important topic for economists long before Keynes. Indeed, it was a topic of vital concern for Keynes before he became the Keynes of the General Theory. There was no unified classical (i.e., pre-Keynesian) macroeconomic theory, but now there is some agreement on the major features of monetary theory prior to Keynes’s General Theory. This presentation follows the Snowdon and Vane (2005) history of macroeconomics. In essence, the classical economists separated the real and the monetary economies. Output and employment are determined in a perfectly competitive economy in which all markets clear and all participants in the economy have stable expectations, and the supply of money determines the overall price level.

The demand for labor depends upon the real wage rate. In the short run, capital is fixed and the demand for labor is equal to labor’s marginal product. The output produced by the last worker hired is presumed to decline as more workers are hired because the capital stock is fixed. Workers are hired as long as the marginal product of the last worker exceeds the real wage rate (by as little as one cent). The supply of labor increases with the real wage. The competitive labor market establishes a real wage equal to the marginal product of labor, so the total supply of output (in the short run) is set by the fixed capital stock, the schedule of the marginal product of labor, and the supply of labor. See Figure 2.1. This level of output is the fullemployment output because there is no unemployment – other than the normal, temporary movement of workers from one job to another.

How is the demand for output determined in the classical system? As you already know, and ignoring government and foreign trade for now, output of final goods and services is demanded for current consumption and for real investment goods. Workers earn wages and spend on consumption or save. Saving is presumed to be a function of the return to saving – the interest rate. Firms earn the return to capital, which is passed on to the owners, who also either spend on consumption or save. Total expenditure in real terms must equal total income, which equals the sum of consumption and saving in real terms. The supply of savings depends upon the interest rate, and those savings are provided to firms for the purpose of purchasing real investment goods. The demand for real investment goods also depends upon the interest rate; a lower interest rate increases the amount of investment that can earn a profit for the firm. The simplified statement of the theory is “supply creates its own demand.” This statement came to be known as Say’s Law.

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Introduction to the general theory of employment

The General Theory was written during the depths of the Great Depression of the early $1930 \mathrm{~s}$. It is a product of its time, to be sure. As noted in Chapter 1, Keynes believed that useful economics is a product of its time. His purpose was to develop a theory that explained the obvious facts that the capitalist economies of the day were not generating anything close to full employment, and that this state of affairs had existed for several years. The economic theory of the time, as outlined in the previous section, which Keynes called the postulates of classical economics and dismissed in a few pages, was not capable of providing an explanation of these overwhelming facts.
Keynes did not invent his theory out of whole cloth. He used ideas that he and others had been formulating in the $1930 \mathrm{~s}$, added some new ideas, and produced a new and coherent theory of a national economy. His introductory summary of the theory (1936, Ch. 3) recalls his Marshallian supply-and-demand roots at Cambridge and is called the “Principle of Effective Demand.” Keynes starts with the concept of aggregate supply, in which the total output of the national economy is a function of employment. The aggregate supply function is $Q_{s}=\varphi(\mathrm{N})$

Here, $Q_{s}$ is aggregate output and $N$ is employment. The notation $\varphi(N)$ means “is a function of N.” The other half of the story is aggregate demand (1936, p. 25), “the proceeds which entrepreneurs expect to receive from the employment of $\mathrm{N}$ men.” The aggregate demand function is written
$$
Q_{d}=f(N)
$$
Aggregate demand is also a function of employment (i.e., the number of people earning money) but a different function than aggregate supply. The volume of aggregate employment is given by the intersection of the aggregate supply function and the aggregate demand function. The value of $Q_{d}$, aggregate demand, at this point is called effective demand. Keynes asserted that the classical economists believed that supply creates its own demand through the earning of wages, interest, and profits so that $Q_{s}=Q_{d}$ for all levels of employment.

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Keynesian theory

宏观经济学代考

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Keynesian theory

约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯(John Maynard Keynes,1883-1946)被普遍认为是 20 世纪最重要的经济学家。在他最重要的著作《就业、利息和货币通论》于 1936 年出版之前,经济学领域被称为经济学(或政治经济学)。凯恩斯之后,经济学分为微观经济学和宏观经济学。本章的目的是像凯恩斯本人一样介绍凯恩斯理论,解释为什么它是(并且是)重要的。然后,第 3 章展示了凯恩斯主义者是如何解释和扩展该理论的——这与凯恩斯在《通论》中的说法有些不同。我相信你,宏观经济学的学生,应该知道凯恩斯说了什么,为什么说。约翰梅纳德凯恩斯是罗伯特斯基德尔斯基三卷传记的主题(1983,1992,2000)这是任何经济学家最好的传记。
凯恩斯是英国经济学家约翰·内维尔·凯恩斯的儿子,也是剑桥大学哲学、数学和经济学的杰出学生。他在剑桥从事学术生涯,并因 1919 年出版的《和平的经济后果》而享誉国际,这是对第一次世界大战结束时的凡尔赛条约的强烈批评,该条约对德国施加了严厉的条件,阻碍了德国的复苏。整个欧洲经济。他是 Bloomsbury Group 的杰出成员,这是 1920 年代和 1930 年代在伦敦蓬勃发展的杰出文学团体。凯恩斯以他的写作、投资和在剑桥的演讲为生。他还担任剑桥国王学院的财务主管,这意味着他管理着学院的投资。他在第一次世界大战期间曾在财政部任职,并于 1940 年被温斯顿·丘吉尔总理的政府召回为财政部的无薪职位。在 1936 年至 1937 年冬季期间出现一系列疾病和症状后,他于 1937 年 5 月 16 日心脏病发作,享年 53 岁。他在二战期间为他的国家努力工作。虽然《通论》致力于分析单个国家,但凯恩斯也是一位国际主义者,他的整个职业生涯都致力于改善国际贸易体系。他是英国在 1944 年布雷顿森林会议上的首席代表,该会议建立了包括国际货币基金组织和世界银行在内的战后国际金融体系。鉴于 1937 年后他的健康状况脆弱,凯恩斯的传记作者罗伯特·斯基德尔斯基 (Robert Skidelsky, 2000, 页。xvii) 在他的传记第三卷的开头是:凯恩斯于 1946 年 4 月 21 日心脏病发作,享年 62 岁。因此,在一年的时间里,心脏病夺走了本世纪最重要的经济学家和本世纪最重要的政治领袖富兰克林·德拉诺·罗斯福的年龄。罗斯福于 1945 年 4 月 12 日去世,享年63.在那些日子里,人们对心脏病知之甚少,而且基本上无法治愈。值得庆幸的是,自罗斯福和凯恩斯时代以来,心脏病方面取得了很大进展。

如果凯恩斯活到 86 岁,他很可能(肯定?)会获得 1969 年颁发的第一个诺贝尔经济学奖。第一个诺贝尔奖是由 Ragnar Frisch 和 Jan Tinbergen 联合授予的,以表彰他们的统计和建模从事宏观经济学的工作有助于推动凯恩斯主义经济学的发展。弗里施在《通论》出版之前就开始了他的工作,但廷伯根的第一本书于 1939 年出版,显然是凯恩斯理论的统计实施。

我们首先简要介绍通论之前的宏观经济思想状况。

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|classical macroeconomics

早在凯恩斯之前,市场经济的繁荣与萧条周期就已成为经济学家的重要话题。事实上,在凯恩斯成为通论的凯恩斯之前,这是他非常关心的话题。没有统一的经典(即前凯恩斯主义)宏观经济理论,但现在对凯恩斯通论之前的货币理论的主要特征有了一些一致意见。本演讲遵循 Snowdon 和 Vane (2005) 的宏观经济学历史。本质上,古典经济学家将实体经济与货币经济分开。产出和就业是在一个完全竞争的经济体中决定的,在这个经济体中,所有市场都出清,经济中的所有参与者都有稳定的预期,货币供应量决定了总体价格水平。

对劳动力的需求取决于实际工资率。在短期内,资本是固定的,对劳动力的需求等于劳动力的边际产量。由于资本存量是固定的,因此随着更多工人被雇用,最后雇用的工人的产出被假定为下降。只要最后一个工人的边际产品超过实际工资率(低至一美分),就会雇用工人。劳动力供给随着实际工资的增加而增加。竞争性劳动力市场建立了等于劳动力边际产量的实际工资,因此总产出(在短期内)由固定资本存量、劳动力边际产量表和劳动力供给决定. 请参见图 2.1。这一产出水平是充分就业产出,因为没有失业——除了正常,

经典系统中的产出需求是如何确定的?如您所知,暂时忽略政府和对外贸易,最终商品和服务的产出是当前消费和实际投资商品的需求。工人赚取工资并用于消费或储蓄。储蓄被认为是储蓄回报——利率的函数。公司获得资本回报,这些回报转嫁给所有者,他们也要么花在消费上,要么储蓄。实际总支出必须等于总收入,即实际消费和储蓄之和。储蓄的供给取决于利率,这些储蓄被提供给公司用于购买实际投资商品。对实际投资品的需求也取决于利率;较低的利率会增加可以为公司赚取利润的投资量。该理论的简化表述是“供给创造自己的需求”。这种说法后来被称为萨伊定律。

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Introduction to the general theory of employment

《通论》写于早期大萧条的最深处1930 s. 可以肯定的是,它是时代的产物。如第一章所述,凯恩斯相信有用的经济学是时代的产物。他的目的是发展一种理论来解释当时的资本主义经济并没有产生任何接近充分就业的明显事实,而且这种情况已经存在了好几年。当时的经济理论,如前一节所述,凯恩斯将其称为古典经济学的假设,并在几页纸中驳回,无法解释这些压倒性的事实。
凯恩斯并不是凭空捏造他的理论。他使用了他和其他人在1930 s,增加了一些新思想,产生了一个新的、连贯的国民经济理论。他对该理论的介绍性总结(1936 年,第 3 章)回顾了他在剑桥的马歇尔式供需根源,并被称为“有效需求原理”。凯恩斯从总供给的概念开始,其中国民经济的总产出是就业的函数。总供给函数为问s=披(ñ)

这里,问s是总产出和ñ是就业。符号披(ñ)意思是“是 N 的函数”。故事的另一半是总需求(1936 年,第 25 页),“企业家期望从ñ男人。” 总需求函数写成

问d=F(ñ)
总需求也是就业(即赚钱的人数)的函数,但与总供给不同。总就业量由总供给函数和总需求函数的交集给出。的价值问d,总需求,此时称为有效需求。凯恩斯断言,古典经济学家认为,供给通过赚取工资、利息和利润来创造自己的需求,因此问s=问d适用于所有级别的就业。

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考 请认准statistics-lab™

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金融工程代写

金融工程是使用数学技术来解决金融问题。金融工程使用计算机科学、统计学、经济学和应用数学领域的工具和知识来解决当前的金融问题,以及设计新的和创新的金融产品。

非参数统计代写

非参数统计指的是一种统计方法,其中不假设数据来自于由少数参数决定的规定模型;这种模型的例子包括正态分布模型和线性回归模型。

广义线性模型代考

广义线性模型(GLM)归属统计学领域,是一种应用灵活的线性回归模型。该模型允许因变量的偏差分布有除了正态分布之外的其它分布。

术语 广义线性模型(GLM)通常是指给定连续和/或分类预测因素的连续响应变量的常规线性回归模型。它包括多元线性回归,以及方差分析和方差分析(仅含固定效应)。

有限元方法代写

有限元方法(FEM)是一种流行的方法,用于数值解决工程和数学建模中出现的微分方程。典型的问题领域包括结构分析、传热、流体流动、质量运输和电磁势等传统领域。

有限元是一种通用的数值方法,用于解决两个或三个空间变量的偏微分方程(即一些边界值问题)。为了解决一个问题,有限元将一个大系统细分为更小、更简单的部分,称为有限元。这是通过在空间维度上的特定空间离散化来实现的,它是通过构建对象的网格来实现的:用于求解的数值域,它有有限数量的点。边界值问题的有限元方法表述最终导致一个代数方程组。该方法在域上对未知函数进行逼近。[1] 然后将模拟这些有限元的简单方程组合成一个更大的方程系统,以模拟整个问题。然后,有限元通过变化微积分使相关的误差函数最小化来逼近一个解决方案。

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随机分析代写


随机微积分是数学的一个分支,对随机过程进行操作。它允许为随机过程的积分定义一个关于随机过程的一致的积分理论。这个领域是由日本数学家伊藤清在第二次世界大战期间创建并开始的。

时间序列分析代写

随机过程,是依赖于参数的一组随机变量的全体,参数通常是时间。 随机变量是随机现象的数量表现,其时间序列是一组按照时间发生先后顺序进行排列的数据点序列。通常一组时间序列的时间间隔为一恒定值(如1秒,5分钟,12小时,7天,1年),因此时间序列可以作为离散时间数据进行分析处理。研究时间序列数据的意义在于现实中,往往需要研究某个事物其随时间发展变化的规律。这就需要通过研究该事物过去发展的历史记录,以得到其自身发展的规律。

回归分析代写

多元回归分析渐进(Multiple Regression Analysis Asymptotics)属于计量经济学领域,主要是一种数学上的统计分析方法,可以分析复杂情况下各影响因素的数学关系,在自然科学、社会和经济学等多个领域内应用广泛。

MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中,其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括:数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发,包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统,其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题,尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题,而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问,这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展,得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中,它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域,MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要,工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数(M 文件)的综合集合,可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。

R语言代写问卷设计与分析代写
PYTHON代写回归分析与线性模型代写
MATLAB代写方差分析与试验设计代写
STATA代写机器学习/统计学习代写
SPSS代写计量经济学代写
EVIEWS代写时间序列分析代写
EXCEL代写深度学习代写
SQL代写各种数据建模与可视化代写

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