经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|The Economist as Policy Adviser

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宏观经济学,对国家或地区经济整体行为的研究。它关注的是了解整个经济的事件,如商品和服务的生产总量、失业水平和价格的一般行为。

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  • Statistical Inference 统计推断
  • Statistical Computing 统计计算
  • Advanced Probability Theory 高等概率论
  • Advanced Mathematical Statistics 高等数理统计学
  • (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
  • Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
  • Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
  • Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础
经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|The Economist as Policy Adviser

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Positive versus Normative Analysis

To clarify the two roles that economists play, let’s examine the use of language. Because scientists and policy advisers have different goals, they use language in different ways.

For example, suppose that two people are discussing minimum-wage laws. Here are two statements you might hear:
PRISHA: Minimum-wage laws cause unemployment.
NOAH: The government should raise the minimum wage.

Ignoring for now whether you agree with these statements, notice that Prisha and Noah differ in what they are trying to do. Prisha is speaking like a scientist: She is making a claim about how the world works. Noah is speaking like a policy adviser: He is making a claim about how he would like to change the world.

In general, statements about the world come in two types. One type, such as Prisha’s, is positive. Positive statements are descriptive. They make a claim about how the world is. A second type of statement, such as Noah’s, is normative. Normative statements are prescriptive. They make a claim about how the world ought to be.

A key difference between positive and normative statements is how we judge their validity. We can, in principle, confirm or refute positive statements by examining evidence. An economist might evaluate Prisha’s statement by analyzing data on changes in minimum wages and changes in unemployment over time. By contrast, evaluating normative statements involves values as well as facts. Noah’s statement cannot be judged using data alone. Deciding what is good or bad policy is not just a matter of science. It also involves our views on ethics, religion, and political philosophy.

Positive and normative statements are fundamentally different, but within a person’s set of beliefs, they are often intertwined. In particular, positive views about how the world works affect normative views about what policies are desirable.

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Economists in Washington

President Harry Truman once said that he wanted to find a one-armed economist. When he asked his economists for advice, they always answered, “On the one hand, …. On the other hand, …. “

Truman was right that economists’ advice is not always straightforward. This tendency is rooted in one of the Ten Principles of Economics: People face trade-offs. Economists are aware that trade-offs are involved in most policy decisions. A policy might increase efficiency at the cost of equality. It might help future generations but hurt the current generation. An economist who says that all policy decisions are easy is an economist not to be trusted.

Truman was not the only president who relied on economists’ advice. Since 1946, the president of the United States has received guidance from the Council of Economic Advisers, which consists of three members and a staff of a few dozen economists. The council, whose offices are just a few steps from the White House, has no duty other than to advise the president and to write the annual Economic Report of the President, which discusses recent developments in the economy and presents the council’s analysis of current policy issues.

The president also receives input from economists in many administrative departments. Economists at the Office of Management and Budget help formulate spending plans and regulatory policies. Economists at the Department of the Treasury help design tax policy. Economists at the Department of Labor analyze data on workers and those looking for work to help formulate labor-market policies. Economists at the Department of Justice help enforce the nation’s antitrust laws.

Economists are also found outside the executive branch of government. To obtain independent evaluations of policy proposals, Congress relies on the advice of the Congressional Budget Office, which is staffed by economists. The Federal Reserve, the institution that sets the nation’s monetary policy, employs hundreds of economists to analyze developments in the United States and throughout the world.

The influence of economists on policy goes beyond their role as advisers: Their research and writings can affect policy indirectly. Economist John Maynard Keynes offered this observation:

The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed, the world is ruled by little else. Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from intellectual influences, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist. Madmen in authority, who hear voices in the air, are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years back.

These words were written in 1935 , but they remain true today. Indeed, the “academic scribbler” now influencing public policy is often Keynes himself.

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Why Economists’ Advice Is Not Always Followed

Economists who advise presidents and other elected leaders know that their recommendations are not always heeded. Frustrating as this can be, it is easy to understand. The process by which economic policy is actually made differs in many ways from the idealized policy process assumed in economics textbooks.

Throughout this text, whenever we discuss policy, we often focus on one question: What is the best policy for the government to pursue? We act as if policy were set by a benevolent king. Once the king figures out the right policy, he has no trouble putting his ideas into action.

In the real world, figuring out the right policy is only part of a leader’s job, sometimes the easiest part. After a president hears from his economic advisers what policy they deem best, he turns to other advisers for related input. His communications advisers will tell him how best to explain the proposed policy to the public, and they will try to anticipate any misunderstandings that might make the challenge more difficult. His press advisers will tell him how the news media will report on his proposal and what opinions will likely be expressed on the nation’s editorial pages. His legislative affairs advisers will tell him how Congress will

view the proposal, what amendments members of Congress will suggest, and the likelihood that Congress will pass some version of the president’s proposal into law. His political advisers will tell him which groups will organize to support or oppose the proposed policy, how this proposal will affect his standing among different groups in the electorate, and whether it will change support for any of the president’s other policy initiatives. After weighing all this advice, the president then decides how to proceed.

Making economic policy in a representative democracy is a messy affair, and there are often good reasons why presidents (and other politicians) do not advance the policies that economists advocate. Economists offer crucial input to the policy process, but their advice is only one ingredient of a complex recipe.

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|The Economist as Policy Adviser

宏观经济学代考

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Positive versus Normative Analysis

为了阐明经济学家所扮演的两个角色,让我们来看看语言的使用。因为科学家和政策顾问有不同的目标,他们使用语言的方式也不同。

例如,假设两个人正在讨论最低工资法。以下是您可能听到的两种说法:
PRISHA:最低工资法导致失业。
诺亚:政府应该提高最低工资。

暂时忽略您是否同意这些陈述,请注意 Prisha 和 Noah 在他们试图做的事情上有所不同。Prisha 像科学家一样说话:她正在对世界如何运作提出主张。诺亚说话的方式像一个政策顾问:他在宣称他想如何改变世界。

一般来说,关于世界的陈述有两种类型。一种类型,例如 Prisha 的,是积极的。积极的陈述是描述性的。他们声称世界是怎样的。第二种类型的陈述,例如诺亚的陈述,是规范性的。规范性陈述是规定性的。他们声称世界应该是怎样的。

正面陈述和规范陈述之间的一个关键区别是我们如何判断它们的有效性。原则上,我们可以通过检查证据来确认或反驳正面陈述。经济学家可能会通过分析最低工资变化和失业率随时间变化的数据来评估 Prisha 的陈述。相比之下,评估规范性陈述涉及价值和事实。诺亚的陈述不能仅用数据来判断。决定什么是好政策或坏政策不仅仅是科学问题。它还涉及我们对伦理、宗教和政治哲学的看法。

正面陈述和规范陈述根本不同,但在一个人的一套信念中,它们往往交织在一起。特别是,关于世界如何运作的积极观点会影响关于哪些政策是可取的规范观点。

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Economists in Washington

哈里·杜鲁门总统曾经说过,他想找一位独臂经济学家。当他向他的经济学家寻求建议时,他们总是回答:“一方面,……。另一方面, …。“

杜鲁门是对的,经济学家的建议并不总是直截了当的。这种趋势植根于经济学十大原理之一:人们面临取舍。经济学家意识到,大多数政策决策都涉及权衡取舍。一项政策可能会以平等为代价提高效率。它可能会帮助后代,但会伤害当代。一个说所有政策决定都很容易的经济学家是一个不值得信任的经济学家。

杜鲁门并不是唯一依赖经济学家建议的总统。自 1946 年以来,美国总统接受经济顾问委员会的指导,该委员会由三名成员和数十名经济学家组成。该委员会的办公室距离白宫仅几步之遥,除了向总统提供建议和撰写总统年度经济报告外,没有其他职责,该报告讨论了经济的最新发展并介绍了委员会对当前政策的分析问题。

总统还接受了许多行政部门经济学家的意见。管理和预算办公室的经济学家帮助制定支出计划和监管政策。财政部的经济学家帮助设计税收政策。劳工部的经济学家分析有关工人和求职者的数据,以帮助制定劳动力市场政策。司法部的经济学家帮助执行国家的反垄断法。

经济学家也出现在政府行政部门之外。为了获得对政策提案的独立评估,国会依赖由经济学家组成的国会预算办公室的建议。美联储是制定国家货币政策的机构,它雇佣了数百名经济学家来分析美国和世界各地的事态发展。

经济学家对政策的影响超出了他们作为顾问的作用:他们的研究和著作可以间接影响政策。经济学家约翰梅纳德凯恩斯提供了这样的观察:

经济学家和政治哲学家的思想,无论是正确的还是错误的,都比通常所理解的更强大。事实上,世界几乎没有其他人统治。务实的人,他们认为自己完全不受知识分子的影响,通常是某个已故经济学家的奴隶。权威的疯子,听到空气中的声音,正在从几年前的一些学术涂鸦中提炼出他们的狂热。

这些话写于 1935 年,但今天仍然适用。事实上,现在影响公共政策的“学术涂鸦者”往往是凯恩斯本人。

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Why Economists’ Advice Is Not Always Followed

为总统和其他民选领导人提供建议的经济学家知道,他们的建议并不总是得到重视。这可能令人沮丧,但很容易理解。实际制定经济政策的过程在许多方面不同于经济学教科书中假设的理想化政策过程。

在整本书中,每当我们讨论政策时,我们经常关注一个问题:政府追求的最佳政策是什么?我们的行为就好像政策是由仁慈的国王制定的。一旦国王制定了正确的政策,他就可以毫不费力地将自己的想法付诸行动。

在现实世界中,制定正确的政策只是领导者工作的一部分,有时是最简单的部分。总统从他的经济顾问那里听到他们认为最好的政策后,他会向其他顾问寻求相关意见。他的沟通顾问将告诉他如何最好地向公众解释拟议的政策,他们将尝试预测任何可能使挑战变得更加困难的误解。他的新闻顾问将告诉他新闻媒体将如何报道他的提议,以及在国家的社论页面上可能会表达什么意见。他的立法事务顾问将告诉他国会将如何

查看提案,国会议员将提出哪些修正案,以及国会将总统提案的某些版本通过成为法律的可能性。他的政治顾问将告诉他哪些团体将组织起来支持或反对提议的政策,该提议将如何影响他在选民中不同团体中的地位,以及它是否会改变对总统任何其他政策倡议的支持。在权衡所有这些建议后,总统然后决定如何进行。

在代议制民主国家制定经济政策是一件麻烦事,总统(和其他政治家)不推进经济学家所倡导的政策通常有充分的理由。经济学家为政策过程提供了至关重要的意见,但他们的建议只是复杂配方的一个组成部分。

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考 请认准statistics-lab™

统计代写请认准statistics-lab™. statistics-lab™为您的留学生涯保驾护航。

金融工程代写

金融工程是使用数学技术来解决金融问题。金融工程使用计算机科学、统计学、经济学和应用数学领域的工具和知识来解决当前的金融问题,以及设计新的和创新的金融产品。

非参数统计代写

非参数统计指的是一种统计方法,其中不假设数据来自于由少数参数决定的规定模型;这种模型的例子包括正态分布模型和线性回归模型。

广义线性模型代考

广义线性模型(GLM)归属统计学领域,是一种应用灵活的线性回归模型。该模型允许因变量的偏差分布有除了正态分布之外的其它分布。

术语 广义线性模型(GLM)通常是指给定连续和/或分类预测因素的连续响应变量的常规线性回归模型。它包括多元线性回归,以及方差分析和方差分析(仅含固定效应)。

有限元方法代写

有限元方法(FEM)是一种流行的方法,用于数值解决工程和数学建模中出现的微分方程。典型的问题领域包括结构分析、传热、流体流动、质量运输和电磁势等传统领域。

有限元是一种通用的数值方法,用于解决两个或三个空间变量的偏微分方程(即一些边界值问题)。为了解决一个问题,有限元将一个大系统细分为更小、更简单的部分,称为有限元。这是通过在空间维度上的特定空间离散化来实现的,它是通过构建对象的网格来实现的:用于求解的数值域,它有有限数量的点。边界值问题的有限元方法表述最终导致一个代数方程组。该方法在域上对未知函数进行逼近。[1] 然后将模拟这些有限元的简单方程组合成一个更大的方程系统,以模拟整个问题。然后,有限元通过变化微积分使相关的误差函数最小化来逼近一个解决方案。

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随机分析代写


随机微积分是数学的一个分支,对随机过程进行操作。它允许为随机过程的积分定义一个关于随机过程的一致的积分理论。这个领域是由日本数学家伊藤清在第二次世界大战期间创建并开始的。

时间序列分析代写

随机过程,是依赖于参数的一组随机变量的全体,参数通常是时间。 随机变量是随机现象的数量表现,其时间序列是一组按照时间发生先后顺序进行排列的数据点序列。通常一组时间序列的时间间隔为一恒定值(如1秒,5分钟,12小时,7天,1年),因此时间序列可以作为离散时间数据进行分析处理。研究时间序列数据的意义在于现实中,往往需要研究某个事物其随时间发展变化的规律。这就需要通过研究该事物过去发展的历史记录,以得到其自身发展的规律。

回归分析代写

多元回归分析渐进(Multiple Regression Analysis Asymptotics)属于计量经济学领域,主要是一种数学上的统计分析方法,可以分析复杂情况下各影响因素的数学关系,在自然科学、社会和经济学等多个领域内应用广泛。

MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中,其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括:数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发,包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统,其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题,尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题,而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问,这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展,得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中,它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域,MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要,工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数(M 文件)的综合集合,可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。

R语言代写问卷设计与分析代写
PYTHON代写回归分析与线性模型代写
MATLAB代写方差分析与试验设计代写
STATA代写机器学习/统计学习代写
SPSS代写计量经济学代写
EVIEWS代写时间序列分析代写
EXCEL代写深度学习代写
SQL代写各种数据建模与可视化代写

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