### 经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Why Economists Disagree

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• Statistical Inference 统计推断
• Statistical Computing 统计计算
• (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
• Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
• Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

## 经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Differences in Scientific Judgments

Several centuries ago, astronomers debated whether the earth or the sun was at the center of the solar system. More recently, climatologists have debated whether the earth is experiencing global warming and, if so, why. Science is an ongoing search to understand the world around us. It is not surprising that as the search continues, scientists sometimes disagree about the direction in which truth lies.

Economists often disagree for the same reason. Although the field of economics sheds light on much about the world (as you will see throughout this book),

there is still much to be learned. Sometimes economists disagree because they have different hunches about the validity of alternative theories. Sometimes they disagree because of different judgments about the size of the parameters that measure how economic variables are related.

For example, economists debate whether the government should tax a household’s income or its consumption (spending). Advocates of a switch from the current income tax to a consumption tax believe that the change would encourage households to save more because income that is saved would not be taxed. Higher saving, in turn, would free resources for capital accumulation, leading to more rapid growth in productivity and living standards. Advocates of the current income tax system believe that household saving would not respond much to a change in the tax laws. These two groups of economists hold different normative views about the tax system because they have different positive views about saving’s responsiveness to tax incentives.

## 经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Differences in Values

Suppose that Jack and Jill both take the same amount of water from the town well. To pay for maintaining the well, the town taxes its residents. Jill has income of $\$ 150,000$and is taxed$\$15,000$, or 10 percent of her income. Jack has income of $\$ 40,000$and is taxed$\$6,000$, or 15 percent of his income.

Is this policy fair? If not, who pays too much and who pays too little? Does it matter whether Jack’s low income is due to a medical disability or to his decision to pursue an acting career? Does it matter whether Jill’s high income is due to a large inheritance or to her willingness to work long hours at a dreary job?

These are difficult questions about which people are likely to disagree. If the town hired two experts to study how it should tax its residents to pay for the well, it would not be surprising if they offered conflicting advice.

This simple example shows why economists sometimes disagree about public policy. As we know from our discussion of normative and positive analysis, policies cannot be judged on scientific grounds alone. Sometimes, economists give conflicting advice because they have different values or political philosophies. Perfecting the science of economics will not tell us whether Jack or Jill pays too much.

## 经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Perception versus Reality

Because of differences in scientific judgments and differences in values, some disagreement among economists is inevitable. Yet one should not overstate the amount of disagreement. Economists agree with one another more often than is sometimes understood.

Table 1 contains twenty propositions about economic policy. In surveys of professional economists, these propositions were endorsed by an overwhelming majority of respondents. Most of these propositions would fail to command a similar consensus among the public.

The first proposition in the table is about rent control, a policy that sets a legal maximum on the amount landlords can charge for their apartments. Almost all economists believe that rent control adversely affects the availability and quality of housing and is a costly way of helping the neediest members of society. Nonetheless, many city governments ignore the advice of economists and place ceilings on the rents that landlords may charge their tenants.

The second proposition in the table concerns policies that restrict trade among nations: tariffs (taxes on imports) and import quotas (limits on how much of a good can be purchased from abroad). For reasons we discuss more fully in later chapters,

almost all economists oppose such barriers to free trade. Nonetheless, over the years, presidents and Congress have often chosen to restrict the import of certain goods. The policies of the Trump administration are a vivid example.

Why do policies such as rent control and trade barriers persist if the experts are united in their pposition? It may he that the realities of the political process stand

as immovable obstacles. But it also may be that economists have not yet convinced enough of the public that these policies are undesirable. One purpose of this book is to help you understand the economist’s view on these and other subjects and, perhaps, to persuade you that it is the right one.
As you read the book, you will occasionally see small boxes called “Ask the Experts.” These are based on the IGM Economics Experts Panel, an ongoing survey of several dozen prominent economists. Every few weeks, these experts are offered a proposition and then asked whether they agree with it, disagree with it, or are uncertain. The results in these boxes will give you a sense of when economists are united, when they are divided, and when they just don’t know what to think.

You can see an example here regarding the resale of tickets to entertainment and sporting events. Lawmakers sometimes try to prohibit reselling tickets, or “scalping” as it is sometimes called. The survey results show that many economists side with the scalpers rather than the lawmakers.

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