### 经济代写|宏观经济学作业代写Macroeconomics代考|Flexible Exchange Rate System

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## 经济代写|宏观经济学作业代写Macroeconomics代考|Flexible Exchange Rate System

The flexible exchange rate system lies at the other extreme of the spectrum: it allows buffering of external shocks and the use of monetary policy to manage the money supply. This enables the central bank to help the banking system when it faces a possible crisis, for example. However, under this scheme, exaggerated increases in the money supply translate into a strong depreciation of the exchange rate and, consequently, higher inflation rates.

To keep inflation under control in a floating rate system, it is critical that the central bank be an autonomous entity and that it set explicit inflation targets, as in Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. Inflation targets, whether they are specific-value targets or within a target range, help create a predictable environment for decision-making by informing economic agents in advance of the path that is intended for monetary policy. At the same time, these targets must be credible. Credibility, though not easily obtained, can be gradually acquired through macroeconomic responsibility, particularly on the part of the monetary authority. This is most easily achieved when the central bank is independent of the government and hence able to resist pressure from the government to print money or finance fiscal deficits.

To see how the exchange rate is related to the financial market, let us look at the simple example shown in figure.

## 经济代写|宏观经济学作业代写Macroeconomics代考|The Debate over Exchange Rate Systems

What is the difference between adopting one or the other exchange rate regime? To answer this question, it is useful to analyze the reaction of a small country to a fall in the price of its exports. Suppose exports are concentrated in raw materials, such as copper in Chile and Peru, oil in Nigeria, Venezuela, and Ecuador, and oil and coffee in Colombia.

Consider Colombia. What if, for some reason, the world price of coffee dropped? First, export earnings would decrease, and therefore the overall income of Colombians would fall. In economies that are highly integrated (commercially and financially) with the rest of the world, such a drop would have a small effect on consumption, because, as will be seen in chapters 7 and 9 , the drop in national income would be compensated by greater borrowing from other countries, meaning that overall consumption of the inhabitants of that country could remain almost the same.

## 经济代写|宏观经济学作业代写Macroeconomics代考|economies with a high

However, some economies with a high level of previous debt have limited borrowing capacity, and therefore they are unlikely to obtain more financial resources to compensate for a drop in their income (as in the example).
Additionally, suppose that the physical volume of coffee exported remained unchanged. As fewer dollars would be entering the country for the same exported volume, dollars would be scarcer, and therefore the exchange rate would tend to rise. With a flexible exchange rate scheme, the Colombian peso would depreciate and Colombian exports would be more competitive. This would promote an increase in noncoffee exports, which would in turn help restore global economic activity and thus offset the decline in the price of coffee.

What would happen if the exchange rate was fixed? Think of an extreme case, like that of Ecuador, which currently uses the dollar for its transactions. If oil prices fell, the Central Bank of Ecuador would have to adopt a policy to reduce consumption and investment without being able to use the exchange rate because the exchange rate is irrevocably fixed. This would generate much more unemployment than a flexible exchange rate; higher unemployment would tend to reduce wages and prices to regain external competitiveness.

But, as many countries’ experiences have demonstrated, there is great resistance from workers to accepting a reduction in wages and from shops to lowering their

prices. In such a case, the adjustment becomes slower and more painful, as it will require a long period of high unemployment and low levels of sales before the economy recovers to the level of activity before the shock.

Already in the 1950 s, Nobel laureate Milton Friedman advocated using a flexible exchange rate system. Recent economic research tends to support Friedman’s proposal.

## 广义线性模型代考

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