### 统计代写|金融统计代写Financial Statistics代考|AEM4070

statistics-lab™ 为您的留学生涯保驾护航 在代写金融统计Financial Statistics方面已经树立了自己的口碑, 保证靠谱, 高质且原创的统计Statistics代写服务。我们的专家在代写金融统计Financial Statistics代写方面经验极为丰富，各种代写金融统计Financial Statistics相关的作业也就用不着说。

• Statistical Inference 统计推断
• Statistical Computing 统计计算
• (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
• Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
• Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

## 统计代写|金融统计代写Financial Statistics代考|Main aspects of integral model

The period of time for which the integral model is constructed, should consist of a few waves of the underwriting cycle. The integral model is multi-component. It includes a number of different partial models, with each different phase of the

cycle. Within each partial model, the specific behavior of the market as a whole and of the individual companies on it has its own internal reasons; its investigation will be our most important task.

Thus, we imbed the theory of competition-originated underwriting cycles into the general theory of complex reflexive systems. We emphasize the role of human error, and of incomplete understanding of the real market situation. Our challenge is the development of an integral model suitable for quantitative, rather than merely qualitative analysis.

Of particular interest to us are long-term strategies, rather than annual control decisions. This is because we cannot be sure that a growing company will not face solvency problems in the next few years, even though at present it successfully fulfills all solvency requirements set by the regulator. Moreover, the insolvency of such a company may be unexpected to an external observer, especially after growth in the volume of its business and its revenue for several years due to the influx of insurers. In other words, besides ruin within an insurance year, another threat is the inability to meet the minimum solvency requirements in the next new year $^{8}$, known as default. This threat is especially grave when a company grows, as the capital needed to maintain solvency may grow even faster than its revenues.

## 统计代写|金融统计代写Financial Statistics代考|Factors used in quantitative analysis

We have already discussed (see Section 1.4.4.1) the interconnection between underwriting cycles, price competition and migration of insureds. To continue, let us say that the insurers’ behavior on the competitive insurance market has internal causes linked with the following observations.

The insureds who desire to reduce their expenses may opt to switch insurer $^{9}$, which explains the possibility of business expansion by means of price cut amongst aggressive insurers. Besides that, on a profitable market, price cuts usually aim to show greater profit in the annual report; this is directly connected with income on equity. Therefore, a second factor is the desire of insurance managers to enhance the attractiveness of the company in the opinion of investors. Further, it is required (e.g., by regulation) to meet solvency requirements. In principle, managers are responsible not only for the current activity of the company, but for

its long-term survival. To protect insureds and creditors from the consequences of insolvency, all companies are inspected periodically by regulators, which keeps the competitive zeal of their managers in check.

For a quantitative analysis of rational strategies and internal causes of insurers” behavior in each partial model, we will consider the combined influence of three factors: Expansion, Revenue and Solvency. In [123], it is called $E R S$-analysis. It is consistent with the opinion of practitioners (see, e.g., [173]) and theorists (see, e.g., [102]) that since single-factorial approaches are unable to explain the real causes of underwriting cycles and crisis phenomena satisfactorily, multifactorial approaches should be applied instead.

In the following chapters, we will measure solvency in monetary units ${ }^{10}$ when performing quantitative $E R S$-analysis. To do this, we turn to the concept of nonruin capital which allows solvency to be annually maintained at a predetermined level. In Lundberg’s collective risk model (see Section 1.5.2), or in the diffusion risk model (see Section 1.5.4), the non-ruin capital is defined as a solution to a nonlinear equation, in which the left-hand side is the probability of ruin within finite time, and the right-hand side is the small number $\alpha \in(0,1)$, i.e., the predetermined solvency’s level. The non-ruin capital is harder to evaluate than the probability of ruin, but its use makes $E R S$-analysis more intuitive and instructive.

## 统计代写|金融统计代写Financial Statistics代考|Driving forces behind the cycles and two main causal connections

The casualties of misfortune, accidental errors, stubbornness of some shareholders, or a reluctance of managers to follow good advices are hardly among the main

driving forces of underwriting cycles ${ }^{15}$. These real driving forces come from the difference between the market participants’ interests.
On the profitable market, the typical interest of

• a company which recently entered the market is the growth of its business. Such a growth-seeking company is often impelled, regardless of potential loss, to resort to price cut to attract new customers. This move is not illegal in itself. However, it can lead to cumulative errors in the company’s assessment of its long-term financial strength. For an aggressive company, the main mistake in the perception of reality lies usually in inaccurate evaluation, or in neglecting the evaluation, of its own solvency. The negative consequences of these errors are most fully manifested when the profitableness of the market falls;
• an incumbent company that has a large portfolio is getting stable profit from conducting regular insurance operations. But this business goal of a profitseeking company can sometimes be achieved through indirect means. For example, wanting to force the aggressive newcomers to change their goal to profit-seeking, the incumbent company may resort to a reduction of its own prices. Such sacrifice of possible income, an unnatural move on the market without competition, is an instrument for protecting a position on the market with growing competition;
• a company that tries to take immediate advantage of the current situation is using any chance to increase its volume and income, as circumstances permit. This pursuit of mercantile interests sometimes leads the opportunistic company to undertake a mercenary behavior.

## 统计代写|金融统计代写Financial Statistics代考|Driving forces behind the cycles and two main causal connections

• 一家最近进入市场的公司是其业务的增长。这种寻求增长的公司往往会被迫不顾潜在的损失，诉诸降价来吸引新客户。这一举动本身并不违法。但是，它可能导致公司对其长期财务实力的评估出现累积错误。对于一家进取的公司来说，对现实认识的主要错误通常在于对自身偿付能力的评估不准确，或者忽略了评估。当市场的盈利能力下降时，这些错误的负面后果最为明显；
• 一家拥有庞大投资组合的老牌公司正通过开展常规保险业务获得稳定的利润。但有时可以通过间接的方式来实现营利公司的这一商业目标。例如，为了迫使激进的新来者改变他们的目标，寻求利润，老牌公司可能会降低自己的价格。这种牺牲可能的收入，在没有竞争的情况下在市场上的不自然举动，是在竞争日益激烈的市场上保护地位的工具；
• 一家试图立即利用当前形势的公司正在利用任何机会在情况允许的情况下增加其销量和收入。这种对商业利益的追求有时会导致机会主义公司采取唯利是图的行为。

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