### 统计代写|金融统计代写Financial Statistics代考|GRA6518

statistics-lab™ 为您的留学生涯保驾护航 在代写金融统计Financial Statistics方面已经树立了自己的口碑, 保证靠谱, 高质且原创的统计Statistics代写服务。我们的专家在代写金融统计Financial Statistics代写方面经验极为丰富，各种代写金融统计Financial Statistics相关的作业也就用不着说。

• Statistical Inference 统计推断
• Statistical Computing 统计计算
• (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
• Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
• Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

## 统计代写|金融统计代写Financial Statistics代考|Reflexivity and regulation

It is generally untrue that a free market, whose inherent instability was called its fatal flaw (see [186], pp. 183,322 ), will regulate itself. Excessive instability ${ }^{51}$ can be avoided only by introducing market regulation. The regulator must clearly recognize the strategic dangers inherent in the very nature of the market which it regulates. But the regulator always remains merely a participant in the reflexive historical process; other participants include competing companies. The regulator’s understanding of this process is necessarily imperfect, and as a result its

actions could lead to unintended consequences.
Therefore, the relationship between regulator and economy is reflexive; it gives rise to a certain cyclic behavior. In order to prevent arbitrariness and abuse of power on the part of the regulator, the rules under which the regulation is carried out must be pre-defined and known to all participants. But, as we have seen in Section 1.4.2.2, it is very difficult to develop rules which are able to anticipate all possible scenarios.

The judgment of how excessive instability may be, is often subjective. Criteria used to determine stability are constantly evolving. Methods of control are also being changed, but long ago it has been observed that they are constantly following the crises and control errors with a delay.

Thus, bearing in mind the above description of the causes of underwriting cycles, it is clear that the insurance regulator has to fight not only against the aggressiveness of the insurers in reducing prices to attract customers, but against the lack of information and the irresponsible actions of a very large number of other participants of the insurance process. Also, it has to fight against the rash desire of insureds to receive services at a lower price ${ }^{52}$, and against their migration to enticing insurers, without paying due attention to their reliability. It has to fight against the desire of individual managers seeking to obtain personal benefits from risky underwriting and from lowering prices, which they regard as a simple and guaranteed means of achieving these benefits ${ }^{53}$. It has to fight against the desire of shareholders to get, notwithstanding the circumstances, an always stable and possibly ever growing stream of dividends.

Therefore, the answer to the problems that create “medium-sized companies entering the market with low rates and large amount of advertising”54 should be systematic and careful cultivation of the insurance market, which includes increasing the awareness and responsibility of all its participants ${ }^{55}$.

## 统计代写|金融统计代写Financial Statistics代考|The need for modeling

The problem of regulation and successful management in insurance is much more complicated than any academic theory. Therefore, a frequently asked question is: “can a theory be useful at all?”.

We agree with T. Pentikäinen (see [152], p. 30) who noted that too often, mere intuition has guided the decision-making process of the management. The attitude of many “experienced” managers toward theoretical considerations is often one of suspicion and condescension. They leave them out, believing that they have no practical value. However, the refusal to clearly articulate the tasks and principles of their actions does not mean that in these actions, there is no strategy. On the contrary, each method of decision-making, even the decision not to make any decision, is a variant of strategy. The only difference is that the strategy of such “practical men” can be a random mixture of inert traditions, old habits, more or less adequate intuition, and the like. It may lack clear understanding and analysis of various alternative strategies. A discussion on theoretical aspects and points of view can contribute to a multifaceted analysis of the situation and to a conscious consideration of the available facts and possibilities as opposed to a random mixture of inert traditions and inadequate intuition.

It is now generally accepted that if regulation and insurance management are not based on comprehensive insurance process models, that can provide insight into how a company may come to ruin, they will act blindly.

Due to the peculiarities of the insurance industry, it would be wise to start with a model for probability mechanism of insurance, i.e., of how a sequence of insurance claims appears within a time period, e.g., one insurance year. Having studied this mechanism, the regulator or manager of a company will be able to formulate the minimum solvency requirements for the company within one insurance year. The most significant thing here is that this will not be done in an arbitrary manner, but in accordance with the natural laws of large-scale random phenomena.

When implementing this program, one should resist the temptation to simplify the model. These simplifications may compromise on the model’s applicability under real-world conditions. If this simplification is nevertheless performed, as is often in the case of classical risk theory, then a warning of its restricted applicability – or non-applicability – should be clearly made.

## 统计代写|金融统计代写Financial Statistics代考|Central aspects of Lundberg’s model: collective risk

Lundberg’s model provides a reasonable, albeit simplified description of largescale random phenomena encountered in the work of any insurance company. Fundamental to this model is the concept of collective risk, which allows us to monitor the financial position of the company over time.

The concept of collective risk implies that there exists a random mechanism for generating successive claims; the company’s portfolio is considered as a whole, rather than as the sum of a known number of individual policies. To illustrate this point, let us assume that the insurance company receives information online about the time and severity of each claim just occurred. This information is presented in the form of a risk reserve process, which is the initial capital, plus the total premiums collected, minus the aggregate claim payments. By ruin within time $t$ we refer to the event that the risk reserve process, evolving with time, drops

below zero at least once within the time interval $(0, t]$. In this setting, the most important objectives are calculations of the aggregate claim payout distribution and of the probability of ruin.

Formalizing Lundberg’s model, we address the intervals between claims and the corresponding claim severities. We model these by means of two sequences of positive random variables $T_{i}, i=1,2, \ldots$, and $Y_{i}, i=1,2, \ldots$ Together, these two sequences may be called the fundamental risk and denoted by $\mathcal{K}$ for brevity.
Within a multi-year control model of the insurance process of a company operating on a competitive market, Lundberg’s model will be built anew for each consecutive insurance year. Therefore, the fundamental risk may be referred to as annual fundamental risk pertaining to any individual company considered. The sequence of these annual risks is the basis of multi-year probabilistic modeling, i.e., the modeling of how claims occur over time and cause cumulative damage each consecutive year.

## 统计代写|金融统计代写Financial Statistics代考|Central aspects of Lundberg’s model: collective risk

Lundberg 的模型提供了对任何保险公司工作中遇到的大规模随机现象的合理但简化的描述。该模型的基础是集体风险的概念，它使我们能够随着时间的推移监控公司的财务状况。

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## MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。