### 统计代写|金融统计代写Financial Statistics代考|ST326

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• (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
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• Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

## 统计代写|金融统计代写Financial Statistics代考|Uncertainties external to insurance business

The most significant risks external to insurance businesses are complex risks, such as political risks. Even when they unfold in time in accordance with a certain scenario, they are difficult to be embedded into any formal scientific theory.

Such risks can be illustrated by various examples, as mentioned in [67] and [176]. In the 1980s Royal Dutch Shell, a Dutch-British oil and gas company, and one of the largest in the world, investigated scenarios in which the price of natural gas might fall. The only largest potential market influence was a liberalization of the Soviet Union’s policy regarding the use of its vast gas reserves. At that time, researchers from Shell identified a few little-known politicians, whose coming to power could lead to changes in the direction of liberalization. One of them was

Mikhail Gorbachev. The beginning of Gorbachev’s ascent to power was regarded by Shell as a harbinger of eventual change, which could save the company from potentially ruinous investment decisions.

Other sources of external risks include changes in laws (see [95], p. 11). These can make the claim inflation quite different from ordinary inflation, and make it difficult, or even impossible to predict in the longer term.

One example goes back to a Belgian experience in the mid-1970s, when an oil shock led to substantial increases in the price of gas. It was followed (see [104]) by laws that reduced speed limits, introduced tests for alcohol blood content, and mandated the use of seat belts. The near-simultaneous increase in overall awareness of the dangers of driving, and of driving cost also contributed to a drastic decrease in average claim frequencies and imbalance in the tariff structure.

## 统计代写|金融统计代写Financial Statistics代考|Uncertainties internal to insurance business, and its cyclicity

In insurance, two major types of cyclic behavior are known: irregular fluctuations of small amplitude, and relatively regular waves in which the ascending and descending phases alternate regularly; the latter being usually referred to as underwriting cycles. The first type of cyclic behavior occurs because of unpredictable random events; they always are present because of the inherent uncertainty of insurance. The second type of oscillation, as we shall see, is due to the presence on the market of uncertainties specific to the insurance business. In particular, it is related to price competition and its consequences.

For many years, the problem of underwriting cycles was central to the modeling of the insurance process, but discussions on how to determine, explain, and identify the existence of such cycles, and whether they even exist in real insurance practice, are still ongoing. On one hand, it is recognized (see [53], p. 333) that underwriting cycles are one of the most important factors affecting the business results and, ultimately, the financial strength of insurers. Because of their significance, it is useful to analyze the causes of these cycles and to explore some of their features. Empirical observations indicate that there are many potential background factors, which vary from period to period. On the other hand, underwriting cycles are regarded by some (see [158], p. 197) as scholarly pareidolia ${ }^{42}$.

## 统计代写|金融统计代写Financial Statistics代考|Origin of underwriting cycle, price competition

It is known that in the US one of the main aims of insurance regulation is to prevent destructive competition between companies (see [105], p. 32). Insurers, wishing to increase sales or market share, may perilously cut prices or assume excessive risks. Since the personal assets of insurance company owners are not at risk, they can underestimate the importance of or even neglect the reasons for maintaining a high level of safety. Insurance managers can conduct aggressive investment policies and aggressive underwriting. Such behavior can lead to short-term successes, but in the long run it can cause very large losses, leading to the insurer’s insolvency.
The aggressive behavior of an insurer seeking to win greater market share is the trigger for the competition-originated underwriting cycle. If the market perceives the threat coming from the aggressive insurer to be serious, simultaneous and massive price cuts may result. This activates the downward phase of the cycle which brings the insurance premiums closer, year-on-year, to the marginal cost of insurance. Eventually, the premiums fall below this level; and the result may be the ruin of many insurance companies.

This development represents a significant threat even for companies which have been operating in the market for a long time. It is consistent with the observation of practitioners that the downward phase of the cycle is correlated with mass insolvencies. For example (see [69], where reference is made to [19]), when industry-wide combined ratios ${ }^{45}$ peaked in the US at $109 \%$ in 1975 and $117 \%$ in 1984 , the insurance failure rate, or the ratio of insolvencies to total companies, peaked at $1.0 \%$ in 1975 and $1.4 \%$ in $1985 .$

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