### 统计代写|贝叶斯分析代写Bayesian Analysis代考|MAST90125

statistics-lab™ 为您的留学生涯保驾护航 在代写贝叶斯分析Bayesian Analysis方面已经树立了自己的口碑, 保证靠谱, 高质且原创的统计Statistics代写服务。我们的专家在代写贝叶斯分析Bayesian Analysis代写方面经验极为丰富，各种代写贝叶斯分析Bayesian Analysis相关的作业也就用不着说。

• Statistical Inference 统计推断
• Statistical Computing 统计计算
• Advanced Probability Theory 高等概率论
• Advanced Mathematical Statistics 高等数理统计学
• (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
• Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
• Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

## 统计代写|贝叶斯分析代写Bayesian Analysis代考|Frequentist versus Subjective View of Uncertainty

When we consider statements about uncertain events like
The next toss on a coin will be a head.

• A hurricane will destroy the White House within the next 5 years.
what we really want to do is measure the uncertainty of such events. In other words we want to be able to make statements like
• There is a 1 in 2 (or equivalently $50 \%$ ) chance that the next toss on a coin will be a head.
• There is a 1 in 10 million (or equivalently $0.000001 \%$ ) chance that a hurricane will destroy the White House within the next 5 years.
Although these statements are superficially similar, there are fundamental differences between them, which come down to the nature of the experiments that give rise to these outcomes. Specifically, whether the following assumptions are reasonable:
• Assumption 1 (repeatability of experiment)-The experiment is repeatable many times under identical conditions.
• Assumption 2 (independence of experiments)-Assuming the experiment is repeatable then the outcome of one experiment does not influence the result of any subsequent experiment.

## 统计代写|贝叶斯分析代写Bayesian Analysis代考|What If You Toss 100 Consecutive Heads

Your job (as a risk expert) is not to calculate the chance of tossing a head. Rather, your job is to calculate the chance that the next toss of the coin is a head (just look back at the original problems posed at the start of this chapter). So, if you observe what is known to be a fair coin being tossed 100 times and each time the result is heads, what do you believe are the chances of the next coin being heads?

A frequentist, given the fair coin assumption, would insist the answer is still $50 \%$. This is because the frequentist, with these assumptions, does not actually require any coin tosses to take place in practice. To the frequentist, the fair coin assumption means that the chance is always $50 \%$ on each throw. In other words, in making a prediction the frequentist must ignore the actual data that has been seen. The 100 consecutive heads would simply be considered a freak coincidence, that is, no more or less likely than any other random sequence of heads and tails. But then, the frequentist must ignore, for example,

1. The possibility that a fair coin can be tossed in such a way that makes heads more likely
2. That the coin tossed was not actually the fair coin assumed
In fact, we will see that such assumptions are irrational given the type of actual data observed. Only the subjective approach coupled with Bayesian reasoning will work effectively in such cases.

## 统计代写|贝叶斯分析代写Bayesian Analysis代考|Frequentist versus Subjective View of Uncertainty

• 飓风将在未来 5 年内摧毁白宫。
我们真正想做的是衡量此类事件的不确定性。换句话说，我们希望能够做出如下陈述
• 有 2 个中的 1 个（或等效的50%) 下一次掷硬币的机会是正面。
• 1000 万分之一（或同等0.000001%) 飓风将在未来 5 年内摧毁白宫的可能性。
尽管这些陈述表面上相似，但它们之间存在根本差异，这归结为产生这些结果的实验​​的性质。具体来说，以下假设是否合理：
• 假设 1（实验的可重复性）——实验在相同条件下可重复多次。
• 假设 2（实验的独立性）——假设实验是可重复的，那么一个实验的结果不会影响任何后续实验的结果。

## 统计代写|贝叶斯分析代写Bayesian Analysis代考|What If You Toss 100 Consecutive Heads

1. 可以以更容易出现正面的方式投掷公平硬币的可能性
2. 投掷的硬币实际上并不是假设的公平硬币
事实上，我们将看到，鉴于观察到的实际数据类型，这种假设是不合理的。在这种情况下，只有结合贝叶斯推理的主观方法才能有效地发挥作用。

## 有限元方法代写

tatistics-lab作为专业的留学生服务机构，多年来已为美国、英国、加拿大、澳洲等留学热门地的学生提供专业的学术服务，包括但不限于Essay代写，Assignment代写，Dissertation代写，Report代写，小组作业代写，Proposal代写，Paper代写，Presentation代写，计算机作业代写，论文修改和润色，网课代做，exam代考等等。写作范围涵盖高中，本科，研究生等海外留学全阶段，辐射金融，经济学，会计学，审计学，管理学等全球99%专业科目。写作团队既有专业英语母语作者，也有海外名校硕博留学生，每位写作老师都拥有过硬的语言能力，专业的学科背景和学术写作经验。我们承诺100%原创，100%专业，100%准时，100%满意。

## MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。