经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|ECON1120

statistics-lab™ 为您的留学生涯保驾护航 在代写宏观经济学Macroeconomics方面已经树立了自己的口碑, 保证靠谱, 高质且原创的统计Statistics代写服务。我们的专家在代写宏观经济学Macroeconomics代写方面经验极为丰富，各种代写宏观经济学Macroeconomics相关的作业也就用不着说。

• Statistical Inference 统计推断
• Statistical Computing 统计计算
• (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
• Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
• Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|The Shipbuilding Model and the Lambert Function

In his 1931 article on the “Shipbuilding cycle,” Tinbergen was interested in the increase of tonnage that followed the building of ships with a lag of about one year due to the construction period. From this connection a relation emerged between the increase of total tonnage and the volume of total tonnage two years before (Tinbergen, 1959: 2). Tinbergen proposed to model this relation as a differential equation with a delay, of the form:
$$\dot{f}(t)=-a f(t-\theta),$$
where $f(t)$ is the tonnage as a function of time, $\theta$ represents the delay between the tonnage and its increase in $t$, and $a$ is the intensity of the relation, the volume of increase above the trend (Tinbergen, 1959: 3). Tinbergen assumed a solution to his equation of the form $f(t)=C e^{\lambda t}$, which, inserted into the equation above yields $\lambda=-a e^{-\lambda \theta}$, once we have simplified the $C$ which only depends on the initial conditions. $\lambda$ can be a real or complex number, but because it appears both in the exponential function and alone this equation is transcendental. Now, “transcendental” means that usually the answer will only be found “experimentally” as Tinbergen put it. Indeed a transcendental equation is periodic, in the same sense that the exponential function with an imaginary argument traces a circle repeating itself as the argument increases. To find a general solution, Tinbergen (and after him Frisch and Kalecki) separated the real and the imaginary part of this equation and solved for one of the two in terms of trigonometric functions; for instance Tinbergen obtained the equation:
$$b \frac{\sin (y)}{y}=e^{-\frac{y}{\tan (y)}},$$
where $b=a \theta$ and $\lambda=x+i y, i=\sqrt{-1}$. To find the solutions for $y$ of this type of equations, they took the same approach of plotting both sides and looking for points of intersection, before improving on this solution with simple algorithms. Figure $2.4$ shows in the solid red lines the right hand side of the Eq. $2.2$, while the dashed lines are the left hand side, for three different values of $b$ and both as a function of $y$.

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|From Natural Sciences to Economics

Hamburger claimed that it was only with new mathematical tools that economists would be able to account quantitatively and qualitatively for economic processes. Ultimately, the aim was to transform economics into a science similar to biology, ${ }^5 \mathrm{a}$ science capable of understanding the operation of social organisms beset by recurrent “pathologies.” It should be noted that Hamburger was not the only economist interested in business cycles who was showing some discontent with a mechanical analogy. Ernst Wagemann, the German head of the imperial statistical office and of the business cycle research institute of Berlin, in a book published in 1928, called as well for a biological metaphor.

Although Wagemann wrote in German, his book met enough success to warrant its translation in English only two years later under the title Economic Rhythm: A Theory of Business Cycles, with a prefatory note from Wesley C. Mitchell (Wagemann, 1930). In the preface to the English edition, Wagemann presented his contribution as a small step “toward the repayment of the debt which Europe owes to America in the field of research into economic dynamics” (Wagemann, 1930: v). However, the type of dynamics that was applied remained very empirical; although Wagemann was searching for a theory, he steered resolutely away from abstract constructions which were heavily criticized. His review of existing theories led him to propose that “while the American methods are those of engineering, and the Russian those of astronomy, the German institute represents the medical, or, better, the organicbiological point of view” (1930: 10). The “organic-biological principle” which he described (with reference to Menger) was meant to capture both the interconnection of the separate parts of an (economic) organism as well as “a peculiarity which may be defined as consisting in the power to regulate its own movement” (1930: 11), an approach which he emphasized as “anything but mechanical” (1930: 11).

Another radical opinion on the business cycle was that it was only a “myth.” This opinion was shared among American economists and statisticians, such as Carl Snyder (1930) and Irving Fisher (1925). ${ }^6$ While the former based his claim on the fact that compared to the growth of the economy, the amplitude of fluctuations remained within certain limits, the second doubted that “inherent” cyclical regularity in business could be detected. For Fisher, even if there existed a simple self-generating cycle similar to that of a pendulum swinging under the influence of the force of gravity, its tendency to materialize would be necessarily “defeated in practice”

宏观经济学代考

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|The Shipbuilding Model and the Lambert Function

$$\dot{f}(t)=-a f(t-\theta),$$

$$b \frac{\sin (y)}{y}=e^{-\frac{y}{\tan (y)}},$$

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|From Natural Sciences to Economics

Hamburger 声称，只有使用新的数学工具，经济学家才能对经济过程进行定量和定性分析。最终，目标是将经济学转变为类似于生物学的科学，5一种能够理解被反复出现的“病态”困扰的社会有机体运作的科学。应该指出的是，汉堡并不是唯一对商业周期感兴趣并对机械类比表示不满的经济学家。德国帝国统计局局长兼柏林商业周期研究所所长恩斯特·瓦格曼 (Ernst Wagemann) 在 1928 年出版的一本书中也呼吁使用生物学隐喻。

有限元方法代写

tatistics-lab作为专业的留学生服务机构，多年来已为美国、英国、加拿大、澳洲等留学热门地的学生提供专业的学术服务，包括但不限于Essay代写，Assignment代写，Dissertation代写，Report代写，小组作业代写，Proposal代写，Paper代写，Presentation代写，计算机作业代写，论文修改和润色，网课代做，exam代考等等。写作范围涵盖高中，本科，研究生等海外留学全阶段，辐射金融，经济学，会计学，审计学，管理学等全球99%专业科目。写作团队既有专业英语母语作者，也有海外名校硕博留学生，每位写作老师都拥有过硬的语言能力，专业的学科背景和学术写作经验。我们承诺100%原创，100%专业，100%准时，100%满意。

MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|ECON6002

statistics-lab™ 为您的留学生涯保驾护航 在代写宏观经济学Macroeconomics方面已经树立了自己的口碑, 保证靠谱, 高质且原创的统计Statistics代写服务。我们的专家在代写宏观经济学Macroeconomics代写方面经验极为丰富，各种代写宏观经济学Macroeconomics相关的作业也就用不着说。

• Statistical Inference 统计推断
• Statistical Computing 统计计算
• (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
• Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
• Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Supply Lags and Market Movements

Tinbergen proposed a supply lag scheme as early as 1928 , in a paper published in $D e$ Socialistische Gids. The paper was rather long considering that the journal usually published articles of only a dozen pages, and most of it was concerned with problems of exchange related to Cournot’s theories of competition. Incidentally, Tinbergen deplored the fact that Cournot’s work had remained mostly ignored, adding that the mathematical form in which it was published (in 1838) was probably to blame for this (Tinbergen, 1928: 543). ${ }^{14}$

The last part of this paper was concerned with the problem of the temporal element in his analysis, recognizing that this influence was mostly ignored in the previous sections. Tinbergen studied a problem of fluctuations around an equilibrium and based his discussion on a mechanical analogy: solving the “dynamic problem” meant that “as in mechanical dynamics, further data is needed, data which we can denote by inertia and delay, the inertia being related to the effort, the delay to the time of displacement” (Tinbergen, 1928: 544). Tinbergen then proposed to observe the behavior of one market where supply would adjust with a lag, while “demand adapts to supply without delay” (Tinbergen, 1928: 544). Although he did not explicitly present the equations behind his scheme, he did propose a numerical example with a figure of the temporal evolution of the quantities exchanged of a good, which took the form of damped oscillations that were in fact the result of a cobweb mechanism (reproduced in Fig. 2.2).

Obviously this example showed somewhat trivial oscillations from a high point to a low point each period, the only kind allowed by a first-order difference equation. ${ }^{15}$ This did not prevent him from discussing the conclusions one could draw from such a model for the economy as a whole and the observed cycles of three to four years or the longer cycles of seven to ten years, and the problems they posed for the social welfare of workers. Tinbergen also touched upon the problem of the damping of those oscillations, in connection with similar problems in physical system, and briefly considered the case where “the deviations are getting bigger (as in cases of unstable equilibrium),” but he added that these fluctuations could occur “only occasionally” (Tinbergen, 1928: 547).

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|The Shipbuilding Model and Mixed Equations

In the introduction of his 1931 paper “Ein Problem der Dynamik,” when Tinbergen distinguished several lines of research that expanded “the static theory of social economy,” he finished his review by remarking that no one had yet tried to combine time derivatives and lags into a “systematic design of the dynamic theory” (Tinbergen, 1931a: 169). A scheme was proposed in the paper but it was still floundering; nevertheless, that same year, Tinbergen proposed a straightforward combination of time derivatives and lags, through his model of the shipbuilding cycle.

The choice of shipbuilding was not anecdotal; in a paper published in De Nederlandsche Conjunctuur, the journal of the Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (CBS) where he was working at the time, Tinbergen explained that “[t]he branch of industry concerned with shipbuilding has a number of peculiarities which make a study of the relationship between the business cycle and this branch of industry of great importance, especially for shipbuilding itself and for shipping companies” (Tinbergen, 1931c: 14). Shipbuilding was one of the biggest branches of activity in the Netherlands, and Tinbergen saw at least three characteristics that made its study worthwhile: the Iong production process of building ships, the strong fluctuations in its activity, and the long life of its means of production. This meant that the shipbuilding industry was quite different from the agricultural markets that had spurred the cobweb models of Moore, Schultz, Ricci and Tinbergen. Clearly, trying to explain the fluctuations of a market of durable instead of perishable goods led Tinbergen to important new ideas.

The first study that he published on the question (Tinbergen, 1931c) was very empirical as he tried to determine the lifespan of ships and other characteristics of the cycle. Nevertheless, he was also clearly searching for an explanation of the cycle, for a mechanism that would explain the fluctuations he had found empirically. He argued that a causal mechanism existed in particular between tonnage and its own increase: “[t]here is indeed a clear interaction between tonnage and increase in tonnage, an interaction which will be referred to in the remainder of this article as the ‘own mechanism’ of the development of tonnage” (Tinbergen, 1931c: 17). But he did not try in this paper to give a more mathematical form to this finding, which he reserved for a paper written in German for the Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, the journal of the Kiel group of economists (Tinbergen 1931b, which was translated in Tinbergen 1959 from which we quote hereafter). ${ }^{24}$

宏观经济学代考

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Supply Lags and Market Movements

Tinbergen 早在 1928 年就在一篇发表于丁和Socialistische Gids。考虑到该杂志通常发表的文章通常只有十几页，而且大部分都是与古诺竞争理论相关的交流问题，所以这篇论文相当长。顺便说一句，Tinbergen 对古诺的工作几乎一直被忽视这一事实感到遗憾，并补充说它出版时所用的数学形式（1838 年）可能是造成这种情况的原因（Tinbergen，1928：543）。14

有限元方法代写

tatistics-lab作为专业的留学生服务机构，多年来已为美国、英国、加拿大、澳洲等留学热门地的学生提供专业的学术服务，包括但不限于Essay代写，Assignment代写，Dissertation代写，Report代写，小组作业代写，Proposal代写，Paper代写，Presentation代写，计算机作业代写，论文修改和润色，网课代做，exam代考等等。写作范围涵盖高中，本科，研究生等海外留学全阶段，辐射金融，经济学，会计学，审计学，管理学等全球99%专业科目。写作团队既有专业英语母语作者，也有海外名校硕博留学生，每位写作老师都拥有过硬的语言能力，专业的学科背景和学术写作经验。我们承诺100%原创，100%专业，100%准时，100%满意。

MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|ECOS3007

statistics-lab™ 为您的留学生涯保驾护航 在代写宏观经济学Macroeconomics方面已经树立了自己的口碑, 保证靠谱, 高质且原创的统计Statistics代写服务。我们的专家在代写宏观经济学Macroeconomics代写方面经验极为丰富，各种代写宏观经济学Macroeconomics相关的作业也就用不着说。

• Statistical Inference 统计推断
• Statistical Computing 统计计算
• (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
• Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
• Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Economic Barometers and “Cumulation”

The hunt for mechanisms responsible for cyclical fluctuations was clearly visible in Tinbergen’s first published article, where he recognized the importance of Aftalion’s theory of crisis, one of the few that was able, in his view, to account for the fact that “in each cycle there is already the seed for the next one” (Tinbergen, 1927: 715). But Tinbergen did not build a model of the economy in this article, which was aimed at the readers of De Economist to inform them of the latest developments in statistical and mathematical economics and business cycle analysis. At this time, what this covered was essentially the latest debates around the barometers, and the critiques they were subjected to.

One debate in particular interested Tinbergen, it was the “new interpretation” of Karl Karsten which had been discussed-among others -by Warren Persons and Alvin Hansen. Karsten was the main proponent in the 1920s of the “quadrature theory,” which had been developed by Charles Edge in 1908 (Karsten, 1924: 14). Being in “quadrature,” a term borrowed from electrical engineering, meant that the fluctuations of one curve corresponded to the fluctuations of the cumulation of another curve, or in other terms, its integral. ${ }^2$ For Karsten, the main advantage of this approach was to show how to obtain cycles of different length or amplitude: “By the quadrature theory, it seems possible to interpret the various phases of the economic cycle as entirely orderly and in accordance with theory, and yet wholly irregular in point of time” (Karsten, 1924: 16).

It was on the basis of this theory that Karsten suggested a new interpretation of the Harvard Business Index in Karsten (1926). While in the “official” interpretation of the barometer, the A curve (speculation) preceded and caused the B curve (production), Karsten thought that the second curve was in fact the causal predecessor of the first and the real driver of the cycle. His theoretical argument was that what counted was not so much business conditions represented by the B curve but the flow of money into the markets that accompanied poor business conditions and inversely the flow of money toward business when it was booming; in terms of “cumulation,” the A curve, representing the prices of securities, “shows the cumulative effects of the flow of money (into the market out of business, or out of the market into business)” (Karsten, 1926: 406). This led him to argue that the B curve was plotted upside down, and he showed that he could obtain a much larger correlation coefficient by following his theory.

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Time Derivatives and the Theories of Maximum Production

By the time he defended his thesis in 1929 , Tinbergen had already published at least two papers in De Economist and one in De Socialistische Gids. The economic appendix of his thesis, which he wrote up under the direction of renowned physicist Paul Ehrenfest, was published the same year in German in the Archiv für Sozialwissenschaft und Sozialpolitik, and the contents of his thesis were reviewed for $D e$

Economist by Ludwig Hamburger (see Chap. 3). This was a strong start for the 26-year-old Tinbergen, although those works bear little resemblance to the large macroeconometric models that he later developed and became known for. In fact, the thesis was taking an approach wholly different from what was hinted at in Tinbergen’s earlier article on barometers, but it opened a research program that he pursued for several years and that connected him to many other researchers in Europe and the USA.

The thesis title was “Minimum problems in physics and in the economy,” although Tinbergen warned from the beginning that the economic problems were only pointed out in the appendix. The title was also misleading in that the object of the work was not so much “minimum problems” but problems involving stationarity, neglecting the problem of knowing whether the solution obtained was a maximum or a minimum, and the latter term was used in this general meaning. Tinbergen argued that he was merely interested in the “formal analogy” between a number of problems that could be represented under this form of a “minimum problem.” This allowed him to avoid the treacherous question of the teleological aspect of such an idea, although he was inclined to think that the “striving for a minimum” was something that lied in the nature of an economic system (Tinbergen, 1929:2), something he shared with Evans, one of the main proponents of maximum principles. ${ }^6$

The thesis was mostly concerned with the demonstration that much of contemporary physics could be derived from extremal principles, Tinbergen taking throughout his work examples of mechanical motions, thermodynamics, optics, electrostatics and electrodynamics. Historically, minimum principles had been developed in optics and mechanics, and had first culminated in the middle of the eighteenth century with Maupertuis’ principle of least action. Maupertuis saw in his principle the proof that God existed and had built the world according to an harmonious principle, a Leibnizian idea that was the subject of Voltaire’s derision in Candide ${ }^7$ While these teleological aspects marked the developments of the idea, the most important works on the question became those that managed to keep a safe distance from it, first in Euler’s work and especially in Lagrange’s analytical mechanics. The works of the latter two formed the basis of the calculus of variation, and the solutions of such problems are still called today Euler-Lagrange equations.

宏观经济学代考

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Economic Barometers and “Cumulation”

Tinbergen 特别感兴趣的一场辩论是 Warren Persons 和 Alvin Hansen 讨论过的 Karl Karsten 的“新解释”。Karsten 是 1920 年代“正交理论”的主要支持者，该理论由 Charles Edge 于 1908 年提出 (Karsten, 1924: 14)。处于“正交”（从电气工程中借用的一个术语）意味着一条曲线的波动对应于另一条曲线的累积波动，或者换句话说，它的积分。2对于 Karsten 来说，这种方法的主要优点是展示了如何获得不同长度或幅度的周期：“通过正交理论，似乎可以将经济周期的各个阶段解释为完全有序且符合理论，并且但在时间点上完全不规则”（Karsten，1924：16）。

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Time Derivatives and the Theories of Maximum Production

Ludwig Hamburger 的经济学家（见第 3 章）。对于 26 岁的 Tinbergen 来说，这是一个良好的开端，尽管这些作品与他后来开发并成名的大型宏观计量模型几乎没有相似之处。事实上，这篇论文采用的方法与 Tinbergen 早期关于气压计的文章中暗示的方法完全不同，但它开启了一个他追求了数年的研究计划，并将他与欧洲和美国的许多其他研究人员联系起来。

有限元方法代写

tatistics-lab作为专业的留学生服务机构，多年来已为美国、英国、加拿大、澳洲等留学热门地的学生提供专业的学术服务，包括但不限于Essay代写，Assignment代写，Dissertation代写，Report代写，小组作业代写，Proposal代写，Paper代写，Presentation代写，计算机作业代写，论文修改和润色，网课代做，exam代考等等。写作范围涵盖高中，本科，研究生等海外留学全阶段，辐射金融，经济学，会计学，审计学，管理学等全球99%专业科目。写作团队既有专业英语母语作者，也有海外名校硕博留学生，每位写作老师都拥有过硬的语言能力，专业的学科背景和学术写作经验。我们承诺100%原创，100%专业，100%准时，100%满意。

MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|ECON1120

statistics-lab™ 为您的留学生涯保驾护航 在代写宏观经济学Macroeconomics方面已经树立了自己的口碑, 保证靠谱, 高质且原创的统计Statistics代写服务。我们的专家在代写宏观经济学Macroeconomics代写方面经验极为丰富，各种代写宏观经济学Macroeconomics相关的作业也就用不着说。

• Statistical Inference 统计推断
• Statistical Computing 统计计算
• (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
• Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
• Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|The Shipbuilding Model and the Lambert Function

In his 1931 article on the “Shipbuilding cycle,” Tinbergen was interested in the increase of tonnage that followed the building of ships with a lag of about one year due to the construction period. From this connection a relation emerged between the increase of total tonnage and the volume of total tonnage two years before (Tinbergen, 1959: 2). Tinbergen proposed to model this relation as a differential equation with a delay, of the form:
$$\dot{f}(t)=-a f(t-\theta),$$
where $f(t)$ is the tonnage as a function of time, $\theta$ represents the delay between the tonnage and its increase in $t$, and $a$ is the intensity of the relation, the volume of increase above the trend (linbergen, 1959: 3). Tinbergen assumed a solution to his equation of the form $f(t)=C e^{\lambda t}$, which, inserted into the equation above yields $\lambda=-a e^{-\lambda \theta}$, once we have simplified the $C$ which only depends on the initial conditions. $\lambda$ can be a real or complex number, but because it appears both in the exponential function and alone this equation is transcendental. Now, “transcendental” means that usually the answer will only be found “experimentally” as Tinbergen put it. Indeed a transcendental equation is periodic, in the same sense that the exponential function with an imaginary argument traces a circle repeating itself as the argument increases. To find a general solution, Tinbergen (and after him Frisch and Kalecki) separated the real and the imaginary part of this equation and solved for one of the two in terms of trigonometric functions; for instance Tinbergen obtained the equation:
$$b \frac{\sin (y)}{y}=e^{-\frac{y}{\tan (y)}},$$
where $b=a \theta$ and $\lambda=x+i y, i=\sqrt{-1}$. To find the solutions for $y$ of this type of equations, they took the same approach of plotting both sides and looking for points of intersection, before improving on this solution with simple algorithms. Figure $2.4$ shows in the solid red lines the right hand side of the Eq. 2.2, while the dashed lines are the left hand side, for three different values of $b$ and both as a function of $y$.
It is readily apparent that there will be only one solution in each interval of length $2 \pi$. We can see that the leftmost solution will have the lowest frequency, that is, the largest period, and that all other solutions will have a higher frequency; thus the roots of the characteristic equation above will be ordered by their decreasing period or increasing frequency.

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|From Natural Sciences to Economics

Hamburger claimed that it was only with new mathematical tools that economists would be able to account quantitatively and qualitatively for economic processes. Ultimately, the aim was to transform economics into a science similar to biology, ${ }^5$ a science capable of understanding the operation of social organisms beset by recurrent “pathologies.” It should be noted that Hamburger was not the only economist interested in business cycles who was showing some discontent with a mechanical analogy. Ernst Wagemann, the German head of the imperial statistical office and of the business cycle research institute of Berlin, in a book published in 1928, called as well for a biological metaphor.

Although Wagemann wrote in German, his book met enough success to warrant its translation in English only two years later under the title Economic Rhythm: A Theory of Business Cycles, with a prefatory note from Wesley C. Mitchell (Wagemann, 1930). In the preface to the English edition, Wagemann presented his contribution as a small step “toward the repayment of the debt which Europe owes to America in the field of research into economic dynamics” (Wagemann, 1930: v). However, the type of dynamics that was applied remained very empirical: although Wagemann was searching for a theory, he steered resolutely away from abstract constructions which were heavily criticized. His review of existing theories led him to propose that “while the American methods are those of engineering, and the Russian those of astronomy, the German institute represents the medical, or, better, the organicbiological point of view” (1930: 10). The “organic-biological principle” which he described (with reference to Menger) was meant to capture both the interconnection of the separate parts of an (economic) organism as well as “a peculiarity which may be defined as consisting in the power to regulate its own movement” (1930: 11), an approach which he emphasized as “anything but mechanical” (1930: 11).

Another radical opinion on the business cycle was that it was only a “myth.” This opinion was shared among American economists and statisticians, such as Carl Snyder (1930) and Irving Fisher (1925). ${ }^6$ While the former based his claim on the fact that compared to the growth of the economy, the amplitude of fluctuations remained within certain limits, the second doubted that “inherent” cyclical regularity in business could be detected. For Fisher, even if there existed a simple self-generating cycle similar to that of a pendulum swinging under the influence of the force of gravity, its tendency to materialize would be necessarily “defeated in practice” (Fisher, 1925: 192). To show this, he proposed to move away from the pendulum metaphor, toward the “physical analogue” of “the sway of the trees or of their branches.” For instance, after a tree is bended, one observes a swaying movement similar to that of the cycle: but Fisher did not think that such a movement was actually observed in the woods: “in actual experience […] twigs or tree tops seldom oscillate so regularly, even temporarily; they register instead, chiefly the variations in wind velocity” (Fisher, 1925: 192). A steady wind as well as any “outside forces”7 may thus bend the trees for weeks and annihilate completely their tendency to swing back and forth while changes in wind speed or in its direction will simply modify the angle of the tree with the ground.

宏观经济学代考

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|The Shipbuilding Model and the Lambert Function

$$\dot{f}(t)=-a f(t-\theta),$$

$$b \frac{\sin (y)}{y}=e^{-\frac{y}{\tan (y)}},$$

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|From Natural Sciences to Economics

Hamburger 声称，只有使用新的数学工具，经济学家才能对经济过程进行定量和定性分析。最终，目标 是将经济学转变为类似于生物学的科学， ${ }^5$ 一门能够理解被反复出现的”病态” 困扰的社会有机体运作的科 学。应该指出的是，汉堡并不是唯一对商业周期感兴趣并对机械类比表示不满的经济学家。德国帝国统 计局局长兼柏林商业周期研究所所长恩斯特. 瓦格曼 (Ernst Wagemann) 在 1928 年出版的一本书中也呼 吁使用生物学隐喻。

有限元方法代写

tatistics-lab作为专业的留学生服务机构，多年来已为美国、英国、加拿大、澳洲等留学热门地的学生提供专业的学术服务，包括但不限于Essay代写，Assignment代写，Dissertation代写，Report代写，小组作业代写，Proposal代写，Paper代写，Presentation代写，计算机作业代写，论文修改和润色，网课代做，exam代考等等。写作范围涵盖高中，本科，研究生等海外留学全阶段，辐射金融，经济学，会计学，审计学，管理学等全球99%专业科目。写作团队既有专业英语母语作者，也有海外名校硕博留学生，每位写作老师都拥有过硬的语言能力，专业的学科背景和学术写作经验。我们承诺100%原创，100%专业，100%准时，100%满意。

MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|ECON6002

statistics-lab™ 为您的留学生涯保驾护航 在代写宏观经济学Macroeconomics方面已经树立了自己的口碑, 保证靠谱, 高质且原创的统计Statistics代写服务。我们的专家在代写宏观经济学Macroeconomics代写方面经验极为丰富，各种代写宏观经济学Macroeconomics相关的作业也就用不着说。

• Statistical Inference 统计推断
• Statistical Computing 统计计算
• (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
• Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
• Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Supply Lags and Market Movements

Tinbergen proposed a supply lag scheme as early as 1928 , in a paper published in $D e$ Socialistische Gids. The paper was rather long considering that the journal usually published articles of only a dozen pages, and most of it was concerned with problems of exchange related to Cournot’s theories of competition. Incidentally, Tinbergen deplored the fact that Cournot’s work had remained mostly ignored, adding that the mathematical form in which it was published (in 1838) was probably to blame for this (Tinbergen, 1928: 543). ${ }^{14}$

The last part of this paper was concerned with the problem of the temporal element in his analysis, recognizing that this influence was mostly ignored in the previous sections. Tinbergen studied a problem of fluctuations around an equilibrium and based his discussion on a mechanical analogy: solving the “dynamic problem” meant that “as in mechanical dynamics, further data is needed, data which we can denote by inertia and delay, the inertia being related to the effort, the delay to the time of displacement” (Tinbergen, 1928: 544). Tinbergen then proposed to observe the behavior of one market where supply would adjust with a lag, while “demand adapts to supply without delay” (Tinbergen, 1928: 544). Although he did not explicitly present the equations behind his scheme, he did propose a numerical example with a figure of the temporal evolution of the quantities exchanged of a good, which took the form of damped oscillations that were in fact the result of a cobweb mechanism (reproduced in Fig. 2.2).

Obviously this example showed somewhat trivial oscillations from a high point to a low point each period, the only kind allowed by a first-order difference equation. ${ }^{15}$ This did not prevent him from discussing the conclusions one could draw from such a model for the economy as a whole and the observed cycles of three to four years or the longer cycles of seven to ten years, and the problems they posed for the social welfare of workers. Tinbergen also touched upon the problem of the damping of those oscillations, in connection with similar problems in physical system, and briefly considered the case where “the deviations are getting bigger (as in cases of unstable equilibrium),” but he added that these fluctuations could occur “only occasionally” (Tinbergen, 1928: 547).

At the very end of his article, Tinbergen concluded with a reference to another work: “a very fine example of an isolated fluctuating market (with a period of 3-4 years) is that of the … pigs!” (Tinbergen, 1928: 547). He was referring here to the work of Arthur Hanau on the cycles in the pig market that had just been published in the Vierteljahreshefte zur Konjunkturforschung, the journal of the Berlin Business Cycle Institute where Hanau was working at the time. Tinbergen would refer to this work enthusiastically many times afterward; its empirical conclusions clearly showed the importance of introducing lags and considering the dynamics of supply and demand on a market, and almost sixty years later he still gave credit to Hanau for the discovery of the mechanism of the supply lag (Tinbergen et al., 1987: 120). ${ }^{16}$

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|The Shipbuilding Model and Mixed Equations

In the introduction of his 1931 paper “Ein Problem der Dynamik,” when Tinbergen distinguished several lines of research that expanded “the static theory of social economy,” he finished his review by remarking that no one had yet tried to combine time derivatives and lags into a “systematic design of the dynamic theory” (Tinbergen, 1931a: 169). A scheme was proposed in the paper but it was still floundering; nevertheless, that same year, Tinbergen proposed a straightforward combination of time derivatives and lags, through his model of the shipbuilding cycle.

The choice of shipbuilding was not anecdotal; in a paper published in De Nederlandsche Conjunctuur, the journal of the Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (CBS) where he was working at the time, Tinhergen explained that “[t]he hranch of industry concerned with shipbuilding has a number of peculiarities which make a study of the relationship between the business cycle and this branch of industry of great importance, especially for shipbuilding itself and for shipping companies” (Tinbergen, 1931c: 14). Shipbuilding was one of the biggest branches of activity in the Netherlands, and Tinbergen saw at least three characteristics that made its study worthwhile: the long production process of building ships, the strong fluctuations in its activity, and the long life of its means of production. This meant that the shipbuilding industry was quite different from the agricultural markets that had spurred the cobweb models of Moore, Schultz, Ricci and Tinbergen. Clearly, trying to explain the fluctuations of a market of durable instead of perishable goods led Tinbergen to important new ideas.

The first study that he published on the question (Tinbergen, 1931c) was very empirical as he tried to determine the lifespan of ships and other characteristics of the cycle. Nevertheless, he was also clearly searching for an explanation of the cycle, for a mechanism that would explain the fluctuations he had found empirically. $\mathrm{He}$ argued that a causal mechanism existed in particular between tonnage and its own increase: “[t]here is indeed a clear interaction between tonnage and increase in tonnage, an interaction which will be referred to in the remainder of this article as the ‘own mechanism’ of the development of tonnage” (Tinbergen, 1931c: 17). But he did not try in this paper to give a more mathematical form to this finding, which he reserved for a paper written in German for the Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, the journal of the Kiel group of economists (Tinbergen 1931b, which was translated in Tinbergen 1959 from which we quote hereafter). ${ }^{24}$

Characteristically, Tinbergen started this second paper on shipbuilding with a nod to Moore and Hanau, hinting that this study was similar in character. But although it was concerned with fluctuations as well, the form he gave to his model was rather different than the simple cobweb, and most of the paper was concerned with the detailed presentation of Tinbergen’s solution of an equation of the type $\dot{f}(t)=-a f(t-\theta)$, which states that the time derivative of tonnage $\dot{f}$ is inversely proportional to the total tonnage a time $\theta$ ago (taken to be two years in his second paper). Although this is the simplest type of mixed differential-difference equations, it still poses some challenges to solve and Tinbergen’s background in theoretical physics served him well to work out an answer. Indeed this class of equations had not yet been studied extensively, and the absence of a road map to solve dynamic systems relying on them hindered the early development of macro-dynamic models, eventually leading to the abandonment of this approach in favor of simpler difference equations models in the late $1930 \mathrm{~s}$.

宏观经济学代考

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Supply Lags and Market Movements

Tinbergen 早在 1928 年就在一篇发表于丁和Socialistische Gids。考虑到该杂志通常发表的文章通常只有十几页，而且大部分都是与古诺竞争理论相关的交流问题，所以这篇论文相当长。顺便说一句，Tinbergen 对古诺的工作几乎一直被忽视这一事实感到遗憾，并补充说它出版时所用的数学形式（1838 年）可能是造成这种情况的原因（Tinbergen，1928：543）。14

有限元方法代写

tatistics-lab作为专业的留学生服务机构，多年来已为美国、英国、加拿大、澳洲等留学热门地的学生提供专业的学术服务，包括但不限于Essay代写，Assignment代写，Dissertation代写，Report代写，小组作业代写，Proposal代写，Paper代写，Presentation代写，计算机作业代写，论文修改和润色，网课代做，exam代考等等。写作范围涵盖高中，本科，研究生等海外留学全阶段，辐射金融，经济学，会计学，审计学，管理学等全球99%专业科目。写作团队既有专业英语母语作者，也有海外名校硕博留学生，每位写作老师都拥有过硬的语言能力，专业的学科背景和学术写作经验。我们承诺100%原创，100%专业，100%准时，100%满意。

MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|ECOS3007

statistics-lab™ 为您的留学生涯保驾护航 在代写宏观经济学Macroeconomics方面已经树立了自己的口碑, 保证靠谱, 高质且原创的统计Statistics代写服务。我们的专家在代写宏观经济学Macroeconomics代写方面经验极为丰富，各种代写宏观经济学Macroeconomics相关的作业也就用不着说。

• Statistical Inference 统计推断
• Statistical Computing 统计计算
• (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
• Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
• Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Economic Barometers and “Cumulation”

The hunt for mechanisms responsible for cyclical fluctuations was clearly visible in Tinbergen’s first published article, where he recognized the importance of Aftalion’s theory of crisis, one of the few that was able, in his view, to account for the fact that “in each cycle there is already the seed for the next one” (Tinbergen, 1927: 715). But Tinbergen did not build a model of the economy in this article, which was aimed at the readers of De Economist to inform them of the latest developments in statistical and mathematical economics and business cycle analysis. At this time, what this covered was essentially the latest debates around the barometers, and the critiques they were subjected to.

One debate in particular interested Tinbergen, it was the “new interpretation” of Karl Karsten which had been discussed-among others-by Warren Persons and Alvin Hansen. Karsten was the main proponent in the 1920s of the “quadrature theory,” which had been developed hy Charles Fdge in 1908 (Karsten, 1924: 14). Being in “quadrature,” a term borrowed from electrical engineering, meant that the fluctuations of one curve corresponded to the fluctuations of the cumulation of another curve, or in other terms, its integral. ${ }^2$ For Karsten, the main advantage of this approach was to show how to obtain cycles of different length or amplitude: “By the quadrature theory, it seems possible to interpret the various phases of the economic cycle as entirely orderly and in accordance with theory, and yet wholly irregular in point of time” (Karsten, 1924: 16).

It was on the basis of this theory that Karsten suggested a new interpretation of the Harvard Business Index in Karsten (1926). While in the “official” interpretation of the barometer, the A curve (speculation) preceded and caused the B curve (production), Karsten thought that the second curve was in fact the causal predecessor of the first and the real driver of the cycle. His theoretical argument was that what counted was not so much business conditions represented by the B curve but the flow of money into the markets that accompanied poor business conditions and inversely the flow of money toward business when it was booming; in terms of “cumulation,” the A curve, representing the prices of securities, “shows the cumulative effects of the flow of money (into the market out of business, or out of the market into business)” (Karsten, 1926: 406). This led him to argue that the B curve was plotted upside down, and he showed that he could obtain a much larger correlation coefficient by following his theory.

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Time Derivatives and the Theories of Maximum

By the time he defended his thesis in 1929 , Tinbergen had already published at least two papers in De Economist and one in De Socialistische Gids. The economic appendix of his thesis, which he wrote up under the direction of renowned physicist Paul Ehrenfest, was published the same year in German in the Archiv für Sozialwissenschaft und Sozialpolitik, and the contents of his thesis were reviewed for De Economist by Ludwig Hamburger (see Chap. 3). This was a strong start for the 26-year-old Tinbergen, although those works bear little resemblance to the large macroeconometric models that he later developed and became known for. In fact, the thesis was taking an approach wholly different from what was hinted at in Tinbergen’s earlier article on barometers, but it opened a research program that he pursued for several years and that connected him to many other researchers in Europe and the USA.

The thesis title was “Minimum problems in physics and in the economy,” although Tinbergen warned from the beginning that the economic problems were only pointed out in the appendix. The title was also misleading in that the object of the work was not so much “minimum problems” but problems involving stationarity, neglecting the problem of knowing whether the solution obtained was a maximum or a minimum, and the latter term was used in this general meaning. Tinbergen argued that he was merely interested in the “formal analogy” between a number of problems that could be represented under this form of a “minimum problem.” This allowed him to avoid the treacherous question of the teleological aspect of such an idea, although he was inclined to think that the “striving for a minimum” was something that lied in the nature of an economic system (Tinbergen, 1929: 2), something he shared with Evans, one of the main proponents of maximum principles. ${ }^6$

The thesis was mostly concerned with the demonstration that much of contemporary physics could be derived from extremal principles, Tinbergen taking throughout his work examples of mechanical motions, thermodynamics, optics, electrostatics and electrodynamics. Historically, minimum principles had been developed in optics and mechanics, and had first culminated in the middle of the eighteenth century with Maupertuis’ principle of least action. Maupertuis saw in his principle the proof that God existed and had built the world according to an harmonious principle, a Leibnizian idea that was the subject of Voltaire’s derision in Candide. ${ }^7$ While these teleological aspects marked the developments of the idea, the most important works on the question became those that managed to keep a safe distance from it, first in Euler’s work and especially in Lagrange’s analytical mechanics. The works of the latter two formed the basis of the calculus of variation, and the solutions of such problems are still called today Euler-Lagrange equations.

宏观经济学代考

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Economic Barometers and “Cumulation”

Tinbergen 特别感兴趣的一场辩论是 Warren Persons 和 Alvin Hansen 讨论过的 Karl Karsten 的“新解释”。Karsten 是 1920 年代“正交理论”的主要支持者，该理论由 Charles Fdge 于 1908 年提出 (Karsten, 1924: 14)。处于“正交”（从电气工程中借用的一个术语）意味着一条曲线的波动对应于另一条曲线的累积波动，或者换句话说，它的积分。2对于 Karsten 来说，这种方法的主要优点是展示了如何获得不同长度或幅度的周期：“通过正交理论，似乎可以将经济周期的各个阶段解释为完全有序且符合理论，并且但在时间点上完全不规则”（Karsten，1924：16）。

有限元方法代写

tatistics-lab作为专业的留学生服务机构，多年来已为美国、英国、加拿大、澳洲等留学热门地的学生提供专业的学术服务，包括但不限于Essay代写，Assignment代写，Dissertation代写，Report代写，小组作业代写，Proposal代写，Paper代写，Presentation代写，计算机作业代写，论文修改和润色，网课代做，exam代考等等。写作范围涵盖高中，本科，研究生等海外留学全阶段，辐射金融，经济学，会计学，审计学，管理学等全球99%专业科目。写作团队既有专业英语母语作者，也有海外名校硕博留学生，每位写作老师都拥有过硬的语言能力，专业的学科背景和学术写作经验。我们承诺100%原创，100%专业，100%准时，100%满意。

MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|ECON1120

statistics-lab™ 为您的留学生涯保驾护航 在代写宏观经济学Macroeconomics方面已经树立了自己的口碑, 保证靠谱, 高质且原创的统计Statistics代写服务。我们的专家在代写宏观经济学Macroeconomics代写方面经验极为丰富，各种代写宏观经济学Macroeconomics相关的作业也就用不着说。

• Statistical Inference 统计推断
• Statistical Computing 统计计算
• (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
• Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
• Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Calibration: An example

Let us consider the basic RBC model, and the calibration proposed by Prescott (1986) which is the actual kick-off of this approach and where Prescott tackles the issue of assigning parameters to the coefficients of the model. For example, at the time, he took as good a capital share of $\alpha=0.36{ }^4$ To estimate the production function, he starts with a Cobb-Douglas specification we’ve used repeatedly
$$f(k)=k^\alpha .$$
Remember that the interest rate has to equal the marginal product of capital,
$$f^{\prime}(k)=\alpha k^{\alpha-1},$$
which means that we have an equation for the return on capital:
$$r=\alpha \frac{Y}{K}-\delta .$$
Now let’s put numbers to this. What is a reasonable rate of depreciation? Let’s use (14.27) itself to figure it out. If we assume that the rate of depreciation is $10 \%$ per year (14.27) becomes $$\begin{gathered} 0.04=0.36 \frac{Y}{K}-0.10 \ 0.14=0.36 \frac{Y}{K} \ \frac{0.36}{0.14}=\frac{K}{Y}=2.6 \end{gathered}$$
This value for the capital output ratio is considered reasonable, so the $10 \%$ rate of depreciation seems to be a reasonable guess.

How about the discount factor? It is assumed equal to the interest rate. (This is not as restrictive as it may seem, but we can skip that for now.) This implies a yearly discount rate of about $4 \%$ (the real interest rate), so that $\frac{1}{1+\rho}=0.96$ (again, per year).

As for the elasticity of intertemporal substitution, he argues that $\sigma=1$ is a good approximation, and uses the share of leisure equal to $2 / 3$, as we had anticipated (this gives a labour allocation of half, which is reasonable if we consider that possible working hours are 16 per day).

Finally, the productivity shock process is derived from Solow-residual-type estimations (as discussed in Chapter 6 when we talked about growth accounting), which, in the case of the U.S. at the time, yielded:
$$z_{t+1}=0.9 * z_t+\varepsilon_{t+1^*}$$
This is a highly persistent process, in which shocks have very long-lasting effects. The calibration for the standard deviation of the disturbance $\varepsilon$ is $0.763$.

So, endowed with all these parameters, we can pour them into the specification and run the model over time – in fact, multiple times, with different random draws for the productivity shock. This will give a time series for the economy in the theoretical model. We will now see how the properties of this economy compare to those of the real economy.

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Does it work?

Let’s start with some basic results taken directly from Prescott’s paper. Figure $14.2$ shows log U.S. GDP and its trend. The trend is computed as a Hodrick-Prescott filter (think of this as a smoothed, but not fixed, line tracing the data). It is not a great way to compute the business cycle (particularly at the edges of the data set), but one that has become quite popular. Once the trend is computed, the cycle is easily estimated as the difference between the two and is showing in figure 14.3.

Figure $14.3$ also shows the variation over the cycle in hours worked. As you can see, there is a large positive correlation between the two.

Real business cycle papers will typically include a table with the properties of the economy, understood as the volatility of the variables and their cross-correlation over time. Table $14.1$ and $14.2$ show this from Prescott’s original paper for both the real data and the calibrated model.

As you can see, things work surprisingly well in the sense that most characteristics of the economy match. The volatility of output and the relative volatility of consumption and investment appear to be the optimal response to the supply shocks. The only caveat is that hours do not seem to move as much as in the data. This is why Prescott implemented Hansen’s extension. Figure $14.4$ shows how labour and output move in the Hansen economy (they seem to match better the pattern in Figure 14.1).
The Appendix to this chapter (at the end of the book) will walk you through an actual example so that you learn to numerically solve and simulate an RBC-style model yourself!

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Calibration: An example

$$f(k)=k^\alpha .$$

$$f^{\prime}(k)=\alpha k^{\alpha-1},$$

$$r=\alpha \frac{Y}{K}-\delta .$$

$$0.04=0.36 \frac{Y}{K}-0.100 .14=0.36 \frac{Y}{K} \frac{0.36}{0.14}=\frac{K}{Y}=2.6$$

$$z_{t+1}=0.9 * z_t+\varepsilon_{t+1^*}$$

有限元方法代写

tatistics-lab作为专业的留学生服务机构，多年来已为美国、英国、加拿大、澳洲等留学热门地的学生提供专业的学术服务，包括但不限于Essay代写，Assignment代写，Dissertation代写，Report代写，小组作业代写，Proposal代写，Paper代写，Presentation代写，计算机作业代写，论文修改和润色，网课代做，exam代考等等。写作范围涵盖高中，本科，研究生等海外留学全阶段，辐射金融，经济学，会计学，审计学，管理学等全球99%专业科目。写作团队既有专业英语母语作者，也有海外名校硕博留学生，每位写作老师都拥有过硬的语言能力，专业的学科背景和学术写作经验。我们承诺100%原创，100%专业，100%准时，100%满意。

MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|ECON6002

statistics-lab™ 为您的留学生涯保驾护航 在代写宏观经济学Macroeconomics方面已经树立了自己的口碑, 保证靠谱, 高质且原创的统计Statistics代写服务。我们的专家在代写宏观经济学Macroeconomics代写方面经验极为丰富，各种代写宏观经济学Macroeconomics相关的作业也就用不着说。

• Statistical Inference 统计推断
• Statistical Computing 统计计算
• (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
• Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
• Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|The basic mechanics

In its essence, the RBC story goes as follows: consider a positive productivity shock that hits the economy, making it more productive. As a result of that shock, wages (i.e. MPL) and interest rates (i.e. MPK) go up, and individuals want to work more as a result. Because of that, output goes up. It follows that the elasticity of labour supply (and the closely related elasticity of intertemporal substitution) are crucial parameters for RBC models. One can only obtain large fluctuations in employment, as needed to match the data, if this elasticity is sufficiently high. What is the elasticity of labour supply in this basic model? Consider the case when $\frac{(i+r)}{(1+\rho)}=1$, in which consumption is a constant. We can read $(14.8)$ as implying a labour supply curve (a relation between $l_t$ and $w_t$ ):
$$\phi v^{\prime}\left(1-l_t\right)=\lambda w_t,$$

where $\lambda$ is the (constant) marginal utility of consumption. Let’s assume a slightly more general, functional form for the utility of leisure:
$$v(h)=\frac{\sigma}{1-\sigma} h^{\frac{\sigma-1}{\sigma}},$$
plugging this in (14.15) gives
$$\phi h_{t^{-\frac{1}{0}}}=\lambda w_t$$
or
$$h_t=\left(\frac{\lambda w_t}{\phi}\right)^{-\sigma},$$
which can be used to compute the labour supply:
$$l_t=1-\left(\frac{\lambda w_t}{\phi}\right)^{-\sigma} .$$
This equation has a labour supply elasticity in the short run equal to
$$\frac{d l}{d w} \frac{w}{l}=\varepsilon_{l, w}=\frac{\sigma\left(\frac{\lambda w_t}{\phi}\right)^{-\sigma-1}\left(\frac{\lambda w_t}{\phi}\right)}{1-\left(\frac{\lambda w_t}{\phi}\right)^{-\sigma}}=\frac{\sigma\left(\frac{\lambda w_t}{\phi}\right)^{-\sigma}}{1-\left(\frac{\lambda w_t}{\phi}\right)^{-\sigma}}=\frac{\sigma h_t}{l_t}$$
If we assume that $\sigma=1$ (logarithmic utility in leisure), and that $\phi$ and $\lambda$ are such that $\frac{h}{l}=2$ (think about an 8-hour workday), this gives you $\varepsilon_{l, w}=2$. This doesn’t seem to be enough to replicate the employment fluctuations observed in the data. On the other hand, it seems to be quite high if compared to micro data on the elasticity of labour supply. Do you think a decrease of $10 \%$ in real wages (because of inflation, for instance) would lead people to work $20 \%$ fewer hours?

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|The indivisible labour solution

The RBC model thus delivers an elasticity of labour supply that is much higher than what micro evidence suggests, posing a challenge when it comes to matching real-world fluctuations in employment. One proposed solution for the conundrum is to incorporate the fact that labour decisions are often indivisible. This means that people may not make adjustments so much on the intensive margin of hôw mány hours to work in your joob, but moré oftenn on thẻ extensive margin of whéther to work at all. This implies that the aggregate elasticity is large even when the individual elasticity is small.

Hansen (1985) models that by assuming that there are fixed costs of going to work. This can actually make labour supply very responsive for a range of wage levels. The decision variables are both days of work: $d \leq \bar{d}$. and, then, the hours of work each day: $n$. We assume there is a fixed commuting cost in terms of utility $\kappa$, which you pay if you decide to work on that day, regardless of how many hours you work (this would be a sort of commuting time).

The objective function is now
$$\operatorname{MaxE}\left[\sum_t\left(\frac{1}{1+\rho}\right)^t\left[u\left(c_t\right)-d_t v\left(n_t\right)-\kappa_t d_t\right]\right],$$
where we leave aside the term $\phi$ to simplify notation, and abuse notation to have $v(\cdot)$ be a function of hours worked, rather than leisure, entering negatively in the utility function. The budget constraint is affected in that now wage income is equal to $w_t d_t n_t$.

It is easy to see that we have the same FOCs, (14.7) – which is unchanged because the terms in consumption in both maximand and budget constraint are still the same -, and (14.8) – because the term in $n_t$ is multiplied by $d_t$ in both maximand and budget constraint, so that $d_t$ cancels out. What changes is that now we have an extra FOC with respect to $d_t$ :
$$\left[v\left(n_t\right)+k_t\right] \geq u^{\prime}\left(c_t\right) w_t n_t .$$
Assume $\frac{(1+r)}{(1+\rho)}=1$, so that $c_t$ is constant. Then (14.8) simplifies to
$$v^{\prime}\left(n_t\right)=\lambda w_t \Longrightarrow n^(w),$$ which gives the optimal amount of hours worked (when the agent decides to work). Then (14.22) simplifies to $$v\left(n^\right)+k_t \geq \lambda w_t n^* .$$
If $v\left(n^\right)+k>\lambda w n^$, then $d=0$, otherwise $d=\bar{d}$. This gives rise to a labour supply as shown in Figure $14.1$

The important point is that this labour supply curve is infinitely elastic at a certain wage. The intuition is that on the margin at which people decide whether to work at all or not, the labour supply will be very sensitive to changes in wages. ${ }^3$

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|The basic mechanics

$$\phi v^{\prime}\left(1-l_t\right)=\lambda w_t,$$

$$v(h)=\frac{\sigma}{1-\sigma} h^{\frac{\sigma-1}{\sigma}},$$

$$\phi h_{t-\frac{1}{0}}=\lambda w_t$$

$$h_t=\left(\frac{\lambda w_t}{\phi}\right)^{-\sigma}$$

$$l_t=1-\left(\frac{\lambda w_t}{\phi}\right)^{-\sigma}$$

$$\frac{d l}{d w} \frac{w}{l}=\varepsilon_{l, w}=\frac{\sigma\left(\frac{\lambda w_t}{\phi}\right)^{-\sigma-1}\left(\frac{\lambda w_t}{\phi}\right)}{1-\left(\frac{\lambda w_t}{\phi}\right)^{-\sigma}}=\frac{\sigma\left(\frac{\lambda w_t}{\phi}\right)^{-\sigma}}{1-\left(\frac{\lambda w_t}{\phi}\right)^{-\sigma}}=\frac{\sigma h_t}{l_t}$$

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|The indivisible labour solution

Hansen (1985) 通过假设上班有固定成本来建模。这实际上可以使劳动力供应对一系列工资水平非常敏感。决策 变量都是工作天数： $d \leq \bar{d}$. 然后是每天的工作时间： $n$. 我们假设在公用事业方面存在固定的通勤成本 $\kappa$ ，如果 您决定在那一天工作，无论您工作多少小时（这将是一种通勤时间），您都需要支付这笔费用。

$$\operatorname{MaxE}\left[\sum_t\left(\frac{1}{1+\rho}\right)^t\left[u\left(c_t\right)-d_t v\left(n_t\right)-\kappa_t d_t\right]\right]$$

$$\left[v\left(n_t\right)+k_t\right] \geq u^{\prime}\left(c_t\right) w_t n_t$$

$$\left.v^{\prime}\left(n_t\right)=\lambda w_t \Longrightarrow n^{(} w\right)$$

vleft(n^1right)+k_t lgeq \ambda w_t $n^{n^{\star}}$ 。

有限元方法代写

tatistics-lab作为专业的留学生服务机构，多年来已为美国、英国、加拿大、澳洲等留学热门地的学生提供专业的学术服务，包括但不限于Essay代写，Assignment代写，Dissertation代写，Report代写，小组作业代写，Proposal代写，Paper代写，Presentation代写，计算机作业代写，论文修改和润色，网课代做，exam代考等等。写作范围涵盖高中，本科，研究生等海外留学全阶段，辐射金融，经济学，会计学，审计学，管理学等全球99%专业科目。写作团队既有专业英语母语作者，也有海外名校硕博留学生，每位写作老师都拥有过硬的语言能力，专业的学科背景和学术写作经验。我们承诺100%原创，100%专业，100%准时，100%满意。

MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|ECOS3007

statistics-lab™ 为您的留学生涯保驾护航 在代写宏观经济学Macroeconomics方面已经树立了自己的口碑, 保证靠谱, 高质且原创的统计Statistics代写服务。我们的专家在代写宏观经济学Macroeconomics代写方面经验极为丰富，各种代写宏观经济学Macroeconomics相关的作业也就用不着说。

• Statistical Inference 统计推断
• Statistical Computing 统计计算
• (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
• Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
• Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|The importance of labour supply

As we’ve pointed out, one of the RBC literature’s main departures from the standard NGM is the presence of a labour supply choice. This is crucial to generate fluctuations in employment, which are a pervasive feature of actual business cycles. Let us consider this choice within the context of the basic model. With log utility, the consumer’s objective function can be thought of as:
$$E\left[\sum_t\left(\frac{1}{1+\rho}\right)^t\left[(1-\phi) \log \left(c_t\right)+\phi \log \left(h_t\right)\right] .\right.$$
Notice that the household has two control variables, consumption and leisure. We have seen before the solution to the problem of optimal intertemporal allocation of consumption; it is the familiar Euler equation:
$$u^{\prime}\left(c_t\right)=\frac{1+r_{t+1}}{1+\rho} E\left[u^{\prime}\left(c_{t+1}\right)\right] .$$
Leaving aside uncertainty, for the moment, and using the log assumption, we can rewrite this as:
$$c_{t+1}=\frac{1+r_{t+1}}{1+\rho} c_t .$$
The labour-leisure choice, in contrast, is static; it takes place in each period with no implication for the next period. The FOC equates the marginal benefit of additional consumption to the marginal cost of lost leisure:
$$w_t(1-\phi) u^{\prime}\left(c_t\right)=\phi v^{\prime}\left(h_t\right) .$$
Again using the log utility assumption, we get
$$w_t(1-\phi) h_t=\phi c_t .$$
To simplify things further, assume for the moment that $r$ is exogenous – think of a small open economy. In this setup, we can use (14.9) into (14.7) to obtain
$$\frac{h_{t+1}}{h_t}=\frac{1+r}{1+\rho} \frac{w_t}{w_{t+1}} \Rightarrow \frac{1-l_{t+1}}{1-l_t}=\frac{1+r}{1+\rho} \frac{w_t}{w_{t+1}} .$$
This means that leisure will be relatively high in those periods when the wage is relatively low; in other words, a higher wage increases the supply of labour. We can also see the impact of the interest rate: a high interest rate will lead to a higher supply of labour. The intuition is that it is worth working more in the present the higher the interest rate, as it provides a higher return in terms of future leisure. These responses of the labour supply, driven by intertemporal substitution in labour and leisure, are at the very heart of the fluctuations in employment in RBC models.

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|The long-run labour supply

Let’s pause for a minute to explore a bit deeper the shape of this labour supply curve. Consider the case when wages and income are constant, a case that would be akin to analysing the effect of permanent shocks to these variables. Let’s see the form of the labour supply in this case.

Since consumption is constant at income level
$$c_t=w\left(1-h_t\right)$$
substituting this into (14.8) we obtain
$$(1-\phi) u^{\prime}\left(w\left(1-h_t\right)\right)=\frac{\phi v^{\prime}\left(h_t\right)}{w}$$
Using the log specification for consumption and allowing for $\phi=\frac{2}{3}$ allows us to simplify
$$\left(\frac{1}{3}\right) \frac{1}{w\left(1-h_t\right)}=\frac{2}{3} \frac{1}{w h_t}$$
This is a strong result that says that leisure is independent of the wage level. You may think this is too strong but, surprisingly, it fits the data very well, at least when thinking about labour supply in the very, very long run. ${ }^2$ It does seem that for humans income and substitution effects just cancel out (or maybe you prefer a more Leontieff setup in which people just can’t work more than eight hours per day, or where the disutility of labour beyond eight hours a day becomes unbearable if repeated every day).
Does this mean that labour supply does not move at all? Not really. The above was derived under the assumption of the constancy of the wage. This is akin to assuming that any change in wages is permanent, which induces a very large response in the shadow value of consumption that works to offset the labour supply effect of the change in wages (totally cancelling it in the log case). But if the wage moves for a very short period of time we can assume the shadow value of consumption to remain constant, and then changes in the wage will elicit a labour supply response. Thus, while the long-run elasticity of labour supply may be zero, it is positive in the short run.

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|The importance of labour supply

$$E\left[\sum_t\left(\frac{1}{1+\rho}\right)^t\left[(1-\phi) \log \left(c_t\right)+\phi \log \left(h_t\right)\right] .\right.$$

$$u^{\prime}\left(c_t\right)=\frac{1+r_{t+1}}{1+\rho} E\left[u^{\prime}\left(c_{t+1}\right)\right] .$$

$$c_{t+1}=\frac{1+r_{t+1}}{1+\rho} c_t .$$

$$w_t(1-\phi) u^{\prime}\left(c_t\right)=\phi v^{\prime}\left(h_t\right) .$$

$$w_t(1-\phi) h_t=\phi c_t .$$

$$\frac{h_{t+1}}{h_t}=\frac{1+r}{1+\rho} \frac{w_t}{w_{t+1}} \Rightarrow \frac{1-l_{t+1}}{1-l_t}=\frac{1+r}{1+\rho} \frac{w_t}{w_{t+1}} .$$

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|The long-run labour supply

$$c_t=w\left(1-h_t\right)$$

$$(1-\phi) u^{\prime}\left(w\left(1-h_t\right)\right)=\frac{\phi v^{\prime}\left(h_t\right)}{w}$$

$$\left(\frac{1}{3}\right) \frac{1}{w\left(1-h_t\right)}=\frac{2}{3} \frac{1}{w h_t}$$

有限元方法代写

tatistics-lab作为专业的留学生服务机构，多年来已为美国、英国、加拿大、澳洲等留学热门地的学生提供专业的学术服务，包括但不限于Essay代写，Assignment代写，Dissertation代写，Report代写，小组作业代写，Proposal代写，Paper代写，Presentation代写，计算机作业代写，论文修改和润色，网课代做，exam代考等等。写作范围涵盖高中，本科，研究生等海外留学全阶段，辐射金融，经济学，会计学，审计学，管理学等全球99%专业科目。写作团队既有专业英语母语作者，也有海外名校硕博留学生，每位写作老师都拥有过硬的语言能力，专业的学科背景和学术写作经验。我们承诺100%原创，100%专业，100%准时，100%满意。

MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|ECON1120

statistics-lab™ 为您的留学生涯保驾护航 在代写宏观经济学Macroeconomics方面已经树立了自己的口碑, 保证靠谱, 高质且原创的统计Statistics代写服务。我们的专家在代写宏观经济学Macroeconomics代写方面经验极为丰富，各种代写宏观经济学Macroeconomics相关的作业也就用不着说。

• Statistical Inference 统计推断
• Statistical Computing 统计计算
• (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
• Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
• Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|The dynamics of technology, education and population

In order to close the picture, we need to have a model of how technological progress takes place. Inspired by the models of endogenous growth that we have seen, we think of productivity growth being driven by the accumulation of knowledge, which is enhanced by human capital and by scale effects. Quite simply, we posit
$$g_{t+1} \equiv \frac{A_{t+1}-A_t}{A_t}=g\left(e_t, L_t\right),$$
where $g(\cdot, \cdot)$ is increasing and concave in both arguments: more and more educated people increase the rate of growth, at decreasing rates. (Remember that our discussion of scale effects argued that there is good evidence for their presence in this very long-run context, as per the models of innovation studied in Chapter 6 and synthesised in Kremer (1993).)

Obviously, the evolution of the size of the adult population is described by $L_{t+1}=n_t L_t$, since $n_t$ is the number of children that each individual adult alive at time $t$ chooses to have. The model of demographic decisions shows that $n_t$ is a function of the rate of technological progress and, when the subsistence constraint is binding, also of potential income. Potential income, in turn, is a function of the existing technology, education levels, and the amount of effective resources per worker.

The one thing that is missing is the evolution of potential resources per worker, $x_t \equiv \frac{A_t X}{L_t}$, but that is easy to state: $x_{t+1}=\frac{1+g_{t+1}}{n_t} x_t$, that is, effective resources per worker grow at the rate of productivity, adjusted by the growth of population.

We now have a dynamic system in four variables: $g_t, x_t, e_t$, and $L_t$. These capture all of our variables of interest, namely productivity growth, productivity levels, human capital investment, and population.

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|The full picture

Figure $10.5$ encompasses all of our story, from the Malthusian regime to sustained growth. Consider an economy in early stages of development. Population size is relatively small and the implied slow rate of technological progress does not provide an incentive to invest in the education of children: this is the world of Figure $10.5 \mathrm{~A}$ – the Malthusian Regime. Over time, the slow growth in population that takes place in the Malthusian Regime raises the rate of technological progress and shifts the $g$ in Panel A enough to generate a qualitative change to Panel B. This is characterised by multiple, historydependent, stable steady-state equilibria: some countries may take off and start investing in human capital, while others lag behind. However, since the economy started in the Malthusian steady state, it initially sticks in the vicinity of that steady state, which is still stable in the absence of major shocks.
Eventually, the continued increase in population leads us to Panel $\mathrm{C}$ : the Malthusian steady state disappears, and the economy starts converging to the steady state with high education. The resulting increase in the pace of technological progress, due to the increased levels of education, has two opposing effects on the evolution of population. On the one hand, it allows for the allocation of more resources for raising children. On the other hand, it induces a reallocation of these additional resources toward child quality. Initially, there is low demand for human capital, and the first effect dominates: this is the Post-Malthusian Regime.

The interaction between investment in human capital and technological progress generates a virtuous circle: human capital formation pushes faster technological progress, which further raises the demand for human capital, which fosters more investment in child quality. Eventually, the subsistence constraint seizes to bind, triggering a demographic transition and sustained economic growth.

经济代写|宏观经济学代写宏观经济学代考|技术、教育和人口的动态

$$g_{t+1} \equiv \frac{A_{t+1}-A_t}{A_t}=g\left(e_t, L_t\right),$$
，其中$g(\cdot, \cdot)$在两个论证中都是递增和凹的:越来越多受教育的人增加了增长率，但增长率在下降。(请记住，我们对规模效应的讨论认为，在这个非常长期的背景下，有很好的证据证明它们的存在，根据第六章研究的创新模型，并由Kremer(1993)综合。

有限元方法代写

tatistics-lab作为专业的留学生服务机构，多年来已为美国、英国、加拿大、澳洲等留学热门地的学生提供专业的学术服务，包括但不限于Essay代写，Assignment代写，Dissertation代写，Report代写，小组作业代写，Proposal代写，Paper代写，Presentation代写，计算机作业代写，论文修改和润色，网课代做，exam代考等等。写作范围涵盖高中，本科，研究生等海外留学全阶段，辐射金融，经济学，会计学，审计学，管理学等全球99%专业科目。写作团队既有专业英语母语作者，也有海外名校硕博留学生，每位写作老师都拥有过硬的语言能力，专业的学科背景和学术写作经验。我们承诺100%原创，100%专业，100%准时，100%满意。

MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。