### 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|ECON3400

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• Statistical Inference 统计推断
• Statistical Computing 统计计算
• (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
• Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
• Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Testable implications of the models

This study uses data on declining chemical products to test the predictions of the theoretical models. The fundamental question is the following: Is large firm size a strategic liability in a declining industry, and, if so, is this liability substantial enough to outweigh the cost advantage of achieving economies of scale? The liability of size could appear as higher exit rates for large firms (as implied by G\&N (1985) and Londregan (1987)) or as higher rates of incremental capacity reduction (as implied by G\&N, 1990 and Reynolds, 1988). If large and small size confer disadvantages of similar magnitude, the two liabilities might offset each other, so that comparable rates of divestment would be observed for both large and small firms.

The potential strategic liability of size is straightforward to detect if it appears as a higher rate of exit by larger firms. (Such a test is provided in section 4 below.) Less drastic forms of divestment are more difficult to assess, but I present several indicator measures in section 4. These include the rate of incremental capacity reduction, the rate of total divestment (exits and incremental reductions combined), and the change over time in the coefficient of variation in firm sizes.

The G\&N (1990) findings imply that as demand declines, capacity would gradually be shed by the largest firms. Producers with large capacity shares would therefore exhibit higher rates of incremental capacity reduction. But large producers may also show higher rates of incremental cutback for the simple reason that they tend to operate multiple plants. (Note that a plant closure constitutes an exit when made by a single-plant firm but an incremental reduction when made by a multi-plant firm.) To determine whether the strategic liability of large firm size is substantial enough to offset cost advantages due to economies of scale, it is necessary to examine the distribution of total divestment. If the liability of large firm size outweighs the benefits of achieving economies of scale, then large-share firms would account for a disproportionate fraction of the total capacity shed from the industry.

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Evidence from prior empirical studies

Empirical evidence on the pattern of capacity reduction in declining industries has been developed primarily from case studies. Many studies have found higher rates of closure for small firms and plants, but only limited evidence has been presented on the strategic liability of large firm size. $G \& N(1985,1990)$ cite case studies of divestment in synthetic soda ash, steel castings, and basic steel. In all three of these industries, early capacity reductions were concentrated among the largest producers. ${ }^{2}$

Studies based on growing as well as declining industries have commonly found that smaller firms have higher exit probabilities. Mansfield (1962) uncovered this tendency in early work. Lieberman (1989) found that smaller entrants had significantly higher mortality rates in growing chemical markets. Evans (1987) and Dunne, Roberts, and Samuelson (1989b) confirmed this relation between exit and firm size using broad, cross-sectional data.

Similar findings have been obtained at the plant level. Deily (1988) and Tang (1989) noted that following the onset of industry decline, US steelmakers divested first from their smaller, high-cost plants. In petroleum refining, Londregan (1988) observed that small refineries were more likely to be closed. Dunne, Roberts, and Samuelson (1989a) found a similar pattern of plant closure in a range of industries.

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Testable implications of the models

G\&N (1990) 的研究结果表明，随着需求的下降，最大的公司将逐渐失去产能。因此，拥有大容量份额的生产商将表现出更高的增量产能减少率。但大型生产商也可能表现出更高的增量削减率，原因很简单，他们倾向于经营多个工厂。（请注意，工厂关闭在单工厂公司时构成退出，但在多工厂公司时构成增量减少。）确定大型公司规模的战略责任是否足以抵消成本优势，因为规模经济，有必要考察总撤资的分布情况。如果大公司规模的责任超过了实现规模经济的好处，

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## MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。