经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|ECOS3007

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宏观经济学,对国家或地区经济整体行为的研究。它关注的是了解整个经济的事件,如商品和服务的生产总量、失业水平和价格的一般行为。

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我们提供的宏观经济学Macroeconomics及其相关学科的代写,服务范围广, 其中包括但不限于:

  • Statistical Inference 统计推断
  • Statistical Computing 统计计算
  • Advanced Probability Theory 高等概率论
  • Advanced Mathematical Statistics 高等数理统计学
  • (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
  • Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
  • Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
  • Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础
经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|ECOS3007

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Economic Barometers and “Cumulation”

The hunt for mechanisms responsible for cyclical fluctuations was clearly visible in Tinbergen’s first published article, where he recognized the importance of Aftalion’s theory of crisis, one of the few that was able, in his view, to account for the fact that “in each cycle there is already the seed for the next one” (Tinbergen, 1927: 715). But Tinbergen did not build a model of the economy in this article, which was aimed at the readers of De Economist to inform them of the latest developments in statistical and mathematical economics and business cycle analysis. At this time, what this covered was essentially the latest debates around the barometers, and the critiques they were subjected to.

One debate in particular interested Tinbergen, it was the “new interpretation” of Karl Karsten which had been discussed-among others-by Warren Persons and Alvin Hansen. Karsten was the main proponent in the 1920s of the “quadrature theory,” which had been developed hy Charles Fdge in 1908 (Karsten, 1924: 14). Being in “quadrature,” a term borrowed from electrical engineering, meant that the fluctuations of one curve corresponded to the fluctuations of the cumulation of another curve, or in other terms, its integral. ${ }^2$ For Karsten, the main advantage of this approach was to show how to obtain cycles of different length or amplitude: “By the quadrature theory, it seems possible to interpret the various phases of the economic cycle as entirely orderly and in accordance with theory, and yet wholly irregular in point of time” (Karsten, 1924: 16).

It was on the basis of this theory that Karsten suggested a new interpretation of the Harvard Business Index in Karsten (1926). While in the “official” interpretation of the barometer, the A curve (speculation) preceded and caused the B curve (production), Karsten thought that the second curve was in fact the causal predecessor of the first and the real driver of the cycle. His theoretical argument was that what counted was not so much business conditions represented by the B curve but the flow of money into the markets that accompanied poor business conditions and inversely the flow of money toward business when it was booming; in terms of “cumulation,” the A curve, representing the prices of securities, “shows the cumulative effects of the flow of money (into the market out of business, or out of the market into business)” (Karsten, 1926: 406). This led him to argue that the B curve was plotted upside down, and he showed that he could obtain a much larger correlation coefficient by following his theory.

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Time Derivatives and the Theories of Maximum

By the time he defended his thesis in 1929 , Tinbergen had already published at least two papers in De Economist and one in De Socialistische Gids. The economic appendix of his thesis, which he wrote up under the direction of renowned physicist Paul Ehrenfest, was published the same year in German in the Archiv für Sozialwissenschaft und Sozialpolitik, and the contents of his thesis were reviewed for De Economist by Ludwig Hamburger (see Chap. 3). This was a strong start for the 26-year-old Tinbergen, although those works bear little resemblance to the large macroeconometric models that he later developed and became known for. In fact, the thesis was taking an approach wholly different from what was hinted at in Tinbergen’s earlier article on barometers, but it opened a research program that he pursued for several years and that connected him to many other researchers in Europe and the USA.

The thesis title was “Minimum problems in physics and in the economy,” although Tinbergen warned from the beginning that the economic problems were only pointed out in the appendix. The title was also misleading in that the object of the work was not so much “minimum problems” but problems involving stationarity, neglecting the problem of knowing whether the solution obtained was a maximum or a minimum, and the latter term was used in this general meaning. Tinbergen argued that he was merely interested in the “formal analogy” between a number of problems that could be represented under this form of a “minimum problem.” This allowed him to avoid the treacherous question of the teleological aspect of such an idea, although he was inclined to think that the “striving for a minimum” was something that lied in the nature of an economic system (Tinbergen, 1929: 2), something he shared with Evans, one of the main proponents of maximum principles. ${ }^6$

The thesis was mostly concerned with the demonstration that much of contemporary physics could be derived from extremal principles, Tinbergen taking throughout his work examples of mechanical motions, thermodynamics, optics, electrostatics and electrodynamics. Historically, minimum principles had been developed in optics and mechanics, and had first culminated in the middle of the eighteenth century with Maupertuis’ principle of least action. Maupertuis saw in his principle the proof that God existed and had built the world according to an harmonious principle, a Leibnizian idea that was the subject of Voltaire’s derision in Candide. ${ }^7$ While these teleological aspects marked the developments of the idea, the most important works on the question became those that managed to keep a safe distance from it, first in Euler’s work and especially in Lagrange’s analytical mechanics. The works of the latter two formed the basis of the calculus of variation, and the solutions of such problems are still called today Euler-Lagrange equations.

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|ECOS3007

宏观经济学代考

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Economic Barometers and “Cumulation”

在 Tinbergen 发表的第一篇文章中清楚地看到了对周期性波动机制的追寻,他认识到 Aftalion 危机理论的重要性,在他看来,这是少数能够解释“在每个周期中”这一事实的理论之一已经有了下一个种子”(Tinbergen,1927:715)。但丁伯根在这篇文章中并没有建立经济模型,其目的是为了让《经济学人》的读者了解统计和数理经济学以及商业周期分析的最新进展。此时,它所涵盖的基本上是围绕晴雨表的最新辩论,以及它们受到的批评。

Tinbergen 特别感兴趣的一场辩论是 Warren Persons 和 Alvin Hansen 讨论过的 Karl Karsten 的“新解释”。Karsten 是 1920 年代“正交理论”的主要支持者,该理论由 Charles Fdge 于 1908 年提出 (Karsten, 1924: 14)。处于“正交”(从电气工程中借用的一个术语)意味着一条曲线的波动对应于另一条曲线的累积波动,或者换句话说,它的积分。2对于 Karsten 来说,这种方法的主要优点是展示了如何获得不同长度或幅度的周期:“通过正交理论,似乎可以将经济周期的各个阶段解释为完全有序且符合理论,并且但在时间点上完全不规则”(Karsten,1924:16)。

正是基于这一理论,Karsten 在 Karsten (1926) 中提出了对哈佛商业指数的新解释。虽然在晴雨表的“官方”解释中,A 曲线(投机)先于并导致 B 曲线(生产),但 Karsten 认为第二条曲线实际上是第一条曲线的因果前身,也是周期的真正驱动因素。他的理论论点是,重要的不是 B 曲线所代表的商业状况,而是伴随着商业状况不佳而流入市场的资金流量,以及相反的资金流向繁荣时期的业务;就“累积”而言,代表证券价格的 A 曲线“显示了资金流动的累积效应(进入市场的业务,或退出市场的业务)”(Karsten,1926:406 ).

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Time Derivatives and the Theories of Maximum

到 1929 年为论文答辩时,丁伯根已经在《经济学人》上发表了至少两篇论文,在《社会主义未来》上发表了一篇论文。他在著名物理学家保罗·埃伦费斯特 (Paul Ehrenfest) 的指导下撰写的论文的经济附录于同年以德文发表在 Archiv für Sozialwissenschaft und Sozialpolitik 上,路德维希·汉堡 (Ludwig Hamburger) 为《经济学人》审阅了他论文的内容 (见第 3 章)。对于 26 岁的 Tinbergen 来说,这是一个良好的开端,尽管这些作品与他后来开发并成名的大型宏观计量模型几乎没有相似之处。事实上,这篇论文采用的方法与 Tinbergen 早期关于气压计的文章中暗示的方法完全不同,

论文题目是“物理学和经济中的最小问题”,尽管丁伯根从一开始就警告经济问题只在附录中指出。标题也具有误导性,因为该工作的对象与其说是“最小问题”,不如说是涉及平稳性的问题,而忽略了知道所获得的解决方案是最大值还是最小值的问题,而后一个术语在本文中使用意义。Tinbergen 争辩说,他只对可以用这种“最小问题”形式表示的许多问题之间的“形式类比”感兴趣。这让他避免了这种想法的目的论方面的危险问题,6

这篇论文主要关注的是证明当代物理学的大部分内容都可以从极值原理中推导出来,丁伯根在他的整个工作中都采用了机械运动、热力学、光学、静电学和电动力学的例子。从历史上看,最小值原理是在光学和力学领域发展起来的,并在 18 世纪中叶以莫佩尔蒂的最小作用原理首次达到顶峰。莫佩尔蒂在他的原则中看到了上帝存在并根据和谐原则建造世界的证据,莱布尼茨的思想是伏尔泰在《老实人》中嘲笑的主题。7虽然这些目的论方面标志着这个想法的发展,但关于这个问题的最重要的工作变成了那些设法与它保持安全距离的工作,首先是欧拉的工作,尤其是拉格朗日的分析力学。后两者的工作构成了变分法的基础,这些问题的解在今天仍被称为欧拉-拉格朗日方程。

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考 请认准statistics-lab™

统计代写请认准statistics-lab™. statistics-lab™为您的留学生涯保驾护航。

金融工程代写

金融工程是使用数学技术来解决金融问题。金融工程使用计算机科学、统计学、经济学和应用数学领域的工具和知识来解决当前的金融问题,以及设计新的和创新的金融产品。

非参数统计代写

非参数统计指的是一种统计方法,其中不假设数据来自于由少数参数决定的规定模型;这种模型的例子包括正态分布模型和线性回归模型。

广义线性模型代考

广义线性模型(GLM)归属统计学领域,是一种应用灵活的线性回归模型。该模型允许因变量的偏差分布有除了正态分布之外的其它分布。

术语 广义线性模型(GLM)通常是指给定连续和/或分类预测因素的连续响应变量的常规线性回归模型。它包括多元线性回归,以及方差分析和方差分析(仅含固定效应)。

有限元方法代写

有限元方法(FEM)是一种流行的方法,用于数值解决工程和数学建模中出现的微分方程。典型的问题领域包括结构分析、传热、流体流动、质量运输和电磁势等传统领域。

有限元是一种通用的数值方法,用于解决两个或三个空间变量的偏微分方程(即一些边界值问题)。为了解决一个问题,有限元将一个大系统细分为更小、更简单的部分,称为有限元。这是通过在空间维度上的特定空间离散化来实现的,它是通过构建对象的网格来实现的:用于求解的数值域,它有有限数量的点。边界值问题的有限元方法表述最终导致一个代数方程组。该方法在域上对未知函数进行逼近。[1] 然后将模拟这些有限元的简单方程组合成一个更大的方程系统,以模拟整个问题。然后,有限元通过变化微积分使相关的误差函数最小化来逼近一个解决方案。

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随机分析代写


随机微积分是数学的一个分支,对随机过程进行操作。它允许为随机过程的积分定义一个关于随机过程的一致的积分理论。这个领域是由日本数学家伊藤清在第二次世界大战期间创建并开始的。

时间序列分析代写

随机过程,是依赖于参数的一组随机变量的全体,参数通常是时间。 随机变量是随机现象的数量表现,其时间序列是一组按照时间发生先后顺序进行排列的数据点序列。通常一组时间序列的时间间隔为一恒定值(如1秒,5分钟,12小时,7天,1年),因此时间序列可以作为离散时间数据进行分析处理。研究时间序列数据的意义在于现实中,往往需要研究某个事物其随时间发展变化的规律。这就需要通过研究该事物过去发展的历史记录,以得到其自身发展的规律。

回归分析代写

多元回归分析渐进(Multiple Regression Analysis Asymptotics)属于计量经济学领域,主要是一种数学上的统计分析方法,可以分析复杂情况下各影响因素的数学关系,在自然科学、社会和经济学等多个领域内应用广泛。

MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中,其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括:数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发,包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统,其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题,尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题,而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问,这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展,得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中,它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域,MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要,工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数(M 文件)的综合集合,可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。

R语言代写问卷设计与分析代写
PYTHON代写回归分析与线性模型代写
MATLAB代写方差分析与试验设计代写
STATA代写机器学习/统计学习代写
SPSS代写计量经济学代写
EVIEWS代写时间序列分析代写
EXCEL代写深度学习代写
SQL代写各种数据建模与可视化代写

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