• Statistical Inference 统计推断
• Statistical Computing 统计计算
• (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
• Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
• Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

What types of business problems warrant $B D A$ ? The types are too numerous to mention, but to give a sense of them consider a few examples:

• Anomaly Detection: production surveillance, predictive maintenance, manufacturing yield optimization;
• Fraud detection;
• Identity theft;
• Account and transaction anomalies;
• Customer analytics:
• Customer Relationship Management (CRM);
• Churn analysis and prevention;
• Customer Satisfaction;
• Marketing cross-sell and up-sell;
• Pricing: leakage monitoring, promotional effects tracking, competitive price responses;
• Fulfillment: management and pipeline tracking;
• Competitive monitoring;
• Competitive Environment Analysis (CEA); and
• New Product Development.
And the list goes on, and on.
A decision of some type is required for all these problems. New product development best exemplifies a complex decision process. Decisions are made throughout a product development pipeline. This is a series of stages from ideation or conceptualization to product launch and post-launch tracking. Paczkowski (2020) identifies five stages for a pipeline: ideation, design, testing, launch, and post-launch tracking. Decisions are made between each stage whether to proceed to the next one or abort development or even production. Each decision point is marked by a business case analysis that examines the expected revenue and market share for the product. Expected sales, anticipated price points (which are refined as the product moves through the pipeline), production and marketing cost estimates, and competitive analyses that include current products, sales, pricing, and promotions plus competitive responses to the proposed new product, are all needed for each business case assessment. If any of these has a negative implication for the concept, then it will be canceled and removed from the pipeline. Information is needed for each business case check point.

The expected revenue and market share are refined for each business case analysis as new and better information -not data-become available for the items I listed above. More data do become available, of course, as the product is developed, but it is the analysis of that data based on methods described in this book, that provide the information needed to approve or not approve the advancement of the concept to the next stage in the pipeline. The first decision, for example, is simply to begin developing a new product. Someone has to say “Yes” to the question “Should we develop a new product?” The business case analysis provides that decision maker with the information for this initial “Go/No Go” decision. Similar decisions are made at other stages.

Another example is product pricing. This is actually a two-fold decision involving a structure (e.g., uniform pricing or price discrimination to mention two possibilities) and a level within the structure. These decisions are made throughout the product life cycle beginning at the development stage (the launch stage of the pipeline I discussed above) and then throughout the post-launch period until the product is ultimately removed from the market. The wrong price structure and/or level could cost your business lost profit, lost market share, or a lost business. See Paczkowski (2018) for a discussion of the role of pricing and the types of analysis for identifying the best price structure and level. Also see Paczkowski (2020) for new product development pricing at each stage of the pipeline.

## 商科代写|商业分析作业代写Statistical Modelling for Business代考|The Role of Information in Business Decision Making

Decisions are effective if they solve a problem, such as those I discussed above, and aid rather than hinder your business in succeeding in the market. I will assume your business succeeds if it earns a profit and has a positive return for its owners (shareholders, partners, employees in an employee-owned company) or a sole owner. Information could be about

• current sales;
• future sales;
• the state of the market;
• consumer, social, and technology trends and developments;
• customer needs and wants;
• customer willingness-to-pay;
• key customer segments;
• financial developments;
• supply chain developments; and
• the size of customer churn.
This information is input into decisions and like any input, if it is bad, then the decisions will be bad. Basically, the GIGO Principle (Garbage In-Garbage Out) holds. This should be obvious and almost trite. Unfortunately, you do not know when you make your decision if your information is good or bad, or even sufficient. You face uncertainty due to the amount and quality of the information you have available.

Without any information you would just be guessing, and guessing is costly. In Fig. 1.1, I illustrate what happens to the cost of decisions based on the amount of information you have. Without any information, all your decisions are based on pure guesses, hunches, so you are forced to approximate their effect. The approximation could be very naive, based on gut instinct (i.e., an unfounded belief that you know everything) or what happened yesterday or in another business similar to yours (i.e., an analog business).

The cost of these approximations in terms of financial losses, lost market share, or outright bankruptcy can be very high. As the amount of information increases, however, you will have more insight so your approximations (i.e., guesses) improve and the cost of approximations declines. This is exactly what happens during the business case process I described above. More and better information helps the decision makers at each business case stage. The approximations could now be based on trends, statistically significant estimates of impact, or model-based what-if analyses. These are not “data”; they are information.

# 商业分析代写

• 异常检测：生产监控、预测性维护、制造良率优化；
• 欺诈识别;
• 身份盗用；
• 账户及交易异常；
• 客户分析：
• 客户关系管理（CRM）；
• 客户流失分析与预防；
• 顾客满意度;
• 营销交叉销售和追加销售；
• 定价：泄漏监控、促销效果跟踪、有竞争力的价格响应；
• 履行：管理和管道跟踪；
• 竞争监控；
• 竞争环境分析（CEA）；和
• 新产品开发。
这样的例子不胜枚举。
所有这些问题都需要某种类型的决定。新产品开发最能说明复杂的决策过程。决策是在整个产品开发流程中做出的。这是从构思或概念化到产品发布和发布后跟踪的一系列阶段。Paczkowski (2020) 确定了管道的五个阶段：构思、设计、测试、发布和发布后跟踪。在每个阶段之间做出决定是继续下一阶段还是中止开发甚至生产。每个决策点都由业务案例分析标记，该分析检查产品的预期收入和市场份额。预期销售额、预期价格点（随着产品在管道中移动而细化）、生产和营销成本估算以及包括当前产品的竞争分析，每个业务案例评估都需要销售、定价和促销以及对拟议新产品的竞争性反应。如果其中任何一个对该概念有负面影响，那么它将被取消并从管道中删除。每个业务案例检查点都需要信息。

## 商科代写|商业分析作业代写Statistical Modelling for Business代考|The Role of Information in Business Decision Making

• 当前销售额；
• 未来的销售；
• 市场状况；
• 消费者、社会和技术趋势和发展；
• 客户的需求和愿望；
• 客户支付意愿；
• 关键客户群；
• 金融发展；
• 供应链发展；和
• 客户流失的规模。
这些信息被输入到决策中，就像任何输入一样，如果它是错误的，那么决策就会是错误的。基本上，GIGO 原则（垃圾进垃圾出）成立。这应该是显而易见的，几乎是陈腐的。不幸的是，您不知道您何时做出决定，您的信息是好是坏，甚至是充分的。由于可用信息的数量和质量，您面临着不确定性。

## 广义线性模型代考

statistics-lab作为专业的留学生服务机构，多年来已为美国、英国、加拿大、澳洲等留学热门地的学生提供专业的学术服务，包括但不限于Essay代写，Assignment代写，Dissertation代写，Report代写，小组作业代写，Proposal代写，Paper代写，Presentation代写，计算机作业代写，论文修改和润色，网课代做，exam代考等等。写作范围涵盖高中，本科，研究生等海外留学全阶段，辐射金融，经济学，会计学，审计学，管理学等全球99%专业科目。写作团队既有专业英语母语作者，也有海外名校硕博留学生，每位写作老师都拥有过硬的语言能力，专业的学科背景和学术写作经验。我们承诺100%原创，100%专业，100%准时，100%满意。

## MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。