经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|The propensity to consume and the inducement to invest

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经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|The propensity to consume and the inducement to invest

Keynes hypothesized that consumption (measured as real consumption in wage units, of course) is a relatively stable function of the income (also measured in wage units) that corresponds to a particular level of employment. Consumption could have been made a function of employment, but Keynes decided to switch the variable to income because he thought that it is a good approximation to regard income as determined uniquely by employment. We shall use the conventional notation of $\mathrm{C}$ for consumption and $\mathrm{Y}$ for income, both in real terms, so consumption is a function of income:
$$C=c(Y)$$
Keynes asserted (1936, p. 96) that this function followed a “fundamental psychological law … that men are disposed, as a rule and on the average, to increase their consumption as their income increases, but not by as much as the increase in their income.” For example, a linear function with a slope less than $1.0$ matches this psychological law:
$\mathrm{C}=\mathrm{a}+\mathrm{bY}, \quad$ with b less than $1.0$ and greater than $0 .$
An increase in $Y$ of 1 wage unit increases $C$ by $b$ wage units, a number less than $1.0$ that is known as the marginal propensity to consume.
In Keynesian theory, saving is just the income not spent on consumption, so
$$S=Y-C=Y-(a+b Y)=Y(1-b)-a$$
Figure $2.3$ depicts this saving function. Note that saving increases with income at the rate of $(1-b)$. In Figure $2.3$, if $\mathrm{Y}$ increases by $1.0$, saving increases by $0.25$, and therefore consumption increases by $0.75$.

Keynes recognized that the position of the consumption function can be altered by several factors, including:

• Windfall changes in capital values (such as the value of one’s house);
• Changes in the rate of interest, which is both the cost of consumer borrowing and the return to saving;
• Changes in income taxes – fiscal policy; and
• Social incentives for saving.
Keynes (1936, pp. 92-95) thought that the first and third of these factors are potentially important in the short run but that the effect of changes in the rate of interest on consumption is relatively unimportant and that the social incentives for saving change slowly over time. In the end, Keynes believed that the demand for consumption was a stable function of current income. This conclusion led him to emphasize the famous multiplier, which was first introduced by his colleague R. F. Kahn in $1931 .$

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Interest rate theory

The remaining piece of Keynesian theory is his theory of the interest rate, the rate at which funds are supplied to those who would demand investment goods. His basic point is that the interest rate is the price of holding a portion of one’s assets in the form of cash or checking deposits, i.e., money (which earned no interest in those days). He called the demand for money liquidity preference. The Keynesian world has two assets – those that earn interest and the one that does not earn interest, called money. He believed that liquidity preference consisted of three parts. Money was demanded because of:

• The transactions motive (need for cash to carry on current exchanges), which is the basic motive assumed in the Quantity Theory of Money;
• The precautionary motive (desire for cash for security); and
• The speculative motive (desire for cash because the individual thinks he/she can outguess the market and make a profit from buying assets later at a lower price).

Consider this last motive, the speculative motive, a little more. People will hold money if they expect that the interest rate will increase (asset prices will fall). Why do asset prices fall when the interest rate rises? Suppose you own a $\$ 10,000$bond that pays$\$300$ in interest per year ( 3 percent). Suppose the general interest rate rises to 4 percent. Now an investor can earn $\$ 300$by investing less than$\$10,000(\$ 7,500$actually), and so now that investor is not willing to pay$\$10,000$ for your bond.

Keynes thought that, at some very low rate of interest, nearly everyone would expect that the interest rate will rise, asset prices will fall, and nearly everyone would demand money for speculative purposes. In this situation, any increase in the supply of money will simply be held by the public for speculation. Monetary policy is ineffective in this case. As Keynes (1936, p. 207) expressed:

There is the possibility … that, after the rate of interest has fallen to a certain level, liquidity preference may become virtually absolute in the sense that almost everyone prefers cash to holding a debt which yields so low a rate of interest. In this event the monetary authority would have lost effective control of the rate of interest.

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|The Keynesian system according to Keynes

We now have all of the elements of the Keynesian system. Keynes restated the basic theory in Chapter 18 of the General Theory. As any good economist does, he began by stating his assumptions that the following elements of the economy were taken as given:

• The quantity and quality of labor and capital;
• The tastes and habits of the consumers;
• The degree of competition; and
• Other factors having to do with the nature of employment and how it is organized by firms.

So, now we are ready. Keynes’s first summary of the model is that the independent variables are the propensity to consume, the schedule of the marginal efficiency of capital, and the rate of interest. Given a rate of interest, the level of investment demand is determined by the schedule of the marginal efficiency of capital. The level of investment determines the level of income and employment through the propensity to consume by establishing the income level at which investment equals saving. A reduction in the interest rate causes an increase in investment and therefore an increase in income via the multiplier effect.
Keynes (1936, p. 246) went on to say that
the rate of interest depends partly on the state of liquidity-preference (i.e., on the liquidity function) and partly on the quantity of money measured in terms of wage-units. Thus we can sometimes regard our ultimate independent variables as consisting of the three fundamental psychological factors, namely, the psychological propensity to consume, the psychological attitude to liquidity, and the psychological expectation of future yield from capital-assets.

Note the word “sometimes” in this statement. Sometimes we can take the interest rate as given, and sometimes we work back to the demand for and supply of money to determine the interest rate. This version of the model is shown in Figure 2.5.

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|The propensity to consume and the inducement to invest

C=C(是)

C=一个+b是,b 小于1.0并且大于0.

• 资本价值的意外变化（如房屋价值）；
• 利率的变化，既是消费者借贷的成本，也是储蓄的回报；
• 所得税的变化——财政政策；和
• 储蓄的社会激励。
Keynes (1936, pp. 92-95) 认为这些因素中的第一个和第三个因素在短期内可能很重要，但利率变化对消费的影响相对不重要，储蓄改变的社会激励随着时间的推移慢慢地。最后，凯恩斯认为消费需求是当前收入的稳定函数。这个结论使他强调了著名的乘数，这是由他的同事 RF Kahn 在1931.

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Interest rate theory

• 交易动机（需要现金进行流通交易），这是货币数量论假设的基本动机；
• 预防动机（以现金换取安全）；和
• 投机动机（渴望现金，因为个人认为他/她可以猜透市场并从以后以较低价格购买资产中获利）。

经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|The Keynesian system according to Keynes

• 劳动力和资本的数量和质量；
• 消费者的口味和习惯；
• 竞争程度；和
• 其他与就业性质和公司组织方式有关的因素。

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