### 经济代写|微观经济学代写Microeconomics代考|THE ANTI-TEXT

statistics-lab™ 为您的留学生涯保驾护航 在代写微观经济学Microeconomics方面已经树立了自己的口碑, 保证靠谱, 高质且原创的统计Statistics代写服务。我们的专家在代写微观经济学Microeconomics代写方面经验极为丰富，各种代写微观经济学Microeconomics相关的作业也就用不着说。

• Statistical Inference 统计推断
• Statistical Computing 统计计算
• (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
• Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
• Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

## 经济代写|微观经济学代写Microeconomics代考|Textbooks ignore their own methodology

Textbooks emphasize that models cannot be judged by the realism of their assumptions, but only by the accuracy of their predictions. Yet in this chapter of the typical mainstream textbook several models are presented and their predictions are not tested against the facts. Instead, predictions about the benefits of specialization and trade (for example) are stated as if they have been demonstrated by the model. This lack of testing can perhaps be forgiven in such an early chapter of a textbook. But this same omission continues throughout subsequent chapters. Rarely is any evidence presented to back up a model’s predictions, let alone a systematic consideration of evidence.

Further, the textbooks often fail to clarify the comparative nature of model testing. The real issue is always how well a model performs relative to an alternative model; how well one set of assumptions performs relative to an alternative set of assumptions. In practice, a poorly performing model will not be abandoned unless we have an alternative that can do better. Textbooks don’t mention difficulties associated with model selection.

Why don’t the textbooks consistently apply the test of predictive power to the models they present? One possible answer is that predictive power isn’t all it’s claimed to be. Predictive power may be fine in the natural sciences, such as physics or chemistry, but in a social science like economics, where there are so many variables that are impossible to control, it simply doesn’t give us conclusive answers. Consequently, if we restrict ourselves to talking about things that have been conclusively settled by empirical evidence, then we’d have little to say. Let’s consider this problem in more detail.

## 经济代写|微观经济学代写Microeconomics代考|Testing economic theories in practice

If the official methodology of positive economics worked reliably, there should be widespread consensus among economists about positive questions. Indeed, many texts claim that is the case. For example, Gregory Mankiw claims that 79 percent of economists agree that ‘minimum wage increases unemployment among young and unskilled workers’. Clearly, the figure comes from a 1990 survey cited in Table 2 .3. Let’s consider this purported consensus. There have been four surveys published, the results of which are shown in Table $2.3$.

From Table $2.3$ we see that to get 79 per cent agreeing with the minimum wage proposition on the 1990 survey, one must add the ‘generally agree’ category to the ‘agree with provisos’ category. This is taking a bit of a liberty, isn’t it? What if the proviso is related to the size of the minimum wage increase? For example, suppose a doubling of the minimum wage would increase youth unemployment, but a 20 per cent increase would not. If that were the proviso then the economists who ‘agreed with provisos’ would hold ‘heretical’ beliefs. As we will see in the next chapter, the textbook prediction is that any increase in minimum wages would increase unemployment. Since we really don’t know what the provisos are, we simply shouldn’t group the two categories.

Comparing the results of the four surveys, we see a clear trend: a decline in the percentage of those who generally agreed and a rise in the percentage of those who disagreed. If these surveys show anything at all, they show the gradual breakdown of consensus with regard to the minimum wage proposition.

This breakdown of consensus almost certainly reflects the work of David Card, Lawrence Katz, Allan Krueger and others, much of it published in the early 1990 s, which concluded that minimum wage increases often have a zero or even a positive impact on employment. These results were the subject of a lively debate, discussed in Card and Krueger’s 1995 book Myth and Measurement. ${ }^{6}$

The tone of the debate has often been rather heated. Card and Krueger have been accused of practicing ‘politically correct’ economics and of deliberately using suspect data in one of their studies. 7 For their part, Card and Krueger have presented evidence of ‘publication bias’ that makes results that are contrary to textbook conventional wisdom harder to publish. ${ }^{8}$a

## 经济代写|微观经济学代写Microeconomics代考|Labour markets are not like the market for bananas

When Tim Bray resigned as a Vice President of Amazon over the firing of employees who had protested workplace safety during the pandemic, he wrote the following on his blog: ‘At the end of the day, the big problem isn’t the specifics of Covid-19 response. It’s that Amazon treats the humans in the warehouses as fungible units of pick-and-pack potential. Only that’s not just Amazon, that’s how $21^{\text {st }}$-century capitalism is done. ${ }^{29}$

The treatment of workers that Mr. Bray describes is the very same treatment they receive in the standard text’s model of the labour market. It makes a critical assumption that it hides in plain sight: ‘it assumes that labour can be purchased in a manner similar to the way bananas change hands in some fruit market’, as Yanis Varoufakis describes it. ${ }^{3}$ He adds that once it’s assumed that labour can be quantified like this, it is also assumed that these quantities of labour can be combined with other factors of production to produce specific amounts of output. This is the assumption that was made in the Standard Text part of Chapter 5 when we consider the firm’s production and costs.

The ideas that we looked at in the previous section suggest that labour is a special commodity. The workers who are renting out their time care about fair treatment and are sensitive to their social status in the workplace, among other things. People also care about what they do, unlike in the standard model where hours of work are hired by whoever pays the most. ${ }^{31}$
The version of efficiency wages that appears in some texts (and in our Standard Text) acknowledges that the amount of work effort that the employer receives from hiring an hour of work is not constant, but it does not pursue its implications. Workerswill increase theirworkeffort the greater the opportunity cost of losing their jobs as reflected by time spent unemployed. The texts fail to note the link between the general level of unemployment and employers’ power to extract more work effort. If employers could costlessly monitor workers, that link would be even stronger. Technological developments now allow almost costless monitoring for some jobs, such as the pick-and-pack jobs in Amazon warehouses.

Because contracts between employers and workers are necessarily incomplete and can’t specify the level of work effort, employers can try to dictate the pace of work using ‘the threat of dismissal and other psychological methods. It is these important determinants of the profit/ wage link that the textbook theory does not account for’, as Yanis Varoufakis explains. ${ }^{32}$ By portraying labour as just another commodity, it serves to obscure, whether intentionally or not, the incentive and ability of employers to exercise some degree of power over employees, who may resist that in various ways.

## 有限元方法代写

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## MATLAB代写

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