经济代写|微观经济学代写Microeconomics代考|THE ANTI-TEXT

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微观经济学是主流经济学的一个分支,研究个人和企业在做出有关稀缺资源分配的决策时的行为以及这些个人和企业之间的相互作用。

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我们提供的微观经济学Microeconomics及其相关学科的代写,服务范围广, 其中包括但不限于:

  • Statistical Inference 统计推断
  • Statistical Computing 统计计算
  • Advanced Probability Theory 高等概率论
  • Advanced Mathematical Statistics 高等数理统计学
  • (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
  • Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
  • Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
  • Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础
经济代写|微观经济学代写Microeconomics代考|THE ANTI-TEXT

经济代写|微观经济学代写Microeconomics代考|Textbooks ignore their own methodology

Textbooks emphasize that models cannot be judged by the realism of their assumptions, but only by the accuracy of their predictions. Yet in this chapter of the typical mainstream textbook several models are presented and their predictions are not tested against the facts. Instead, predictions about the benefits of specialization and trade (for example) are stated as if they have been demonstrated by the model. This lack of testing can perhaps be forgiven in such an early chapter of a textbook. But this same omission continues throughout subsequent chapters. Rarely is any evidence presented to back up a model’s predictions, let alone a systematic consideration of evidence.

Further, the textbooks often fail to clarify the comparative nature of model testing. The real issue is always how well a model performs relative to an alternative model; how well one set of assumptions performs relative to an alternative set of assumptions. In practice, a poorly performing model will not be abandoned unless we have an alternative that can do better. Textbooks don’t mention difficulties associated with model selection.

Why don’t the textbooks consistently apply the test of predictive power to the models they present? One possible answer is that predictive power isn’t all it’s claimed to be. Predictive power may be fine in the natural sciences, such as physics or chemistry, but in a social science like economics, where there are so many variables that are impossible to control, it simply doesn’t give us conclusive answers. Consequently, if we restrict ourselves to talking about things that have been conclusively settled by empirical evidence, then we’d have little to say. Let’s consider this problem in more detail.

经济代写|微观经济学代写Microeconomics代考|Testing economic theories in practice

If the official methodology of positive economics worked reliably, there should be widespread consensus among economists about positive questions. Indeed, many texts claim that is the case. For example, Gregory Mankiw claims that 79 percent of economists agree that ‘minimum wage increases unemployment among young and unskilled workers’. Clearly, the figure comes from a 1990 survey cited in Table 2 .3. Let’s consider this purported consensus. There have been four surveys published, the results of which are shown in Table $2.3$.

From Table $2.3$ we see that to get 79 per cent agreeing with the minimum wage proposition on the 1990 survey, one must add the ‘generally agree’ category to the ‘agree with provisos’ category. This is taking a bit of a liberty, isn’t it? What if the proviso is related to the size of the minimum wage increase? For example, suppose a doubling of the minimum wage would increase youth unemployment, but a 20 per cent increase would not. If that were the proviso then the economists who ‘agreed with provisos’ would hold ‘heretical’ beliefs. As we will see in the next chapter, the textbook prediction is that any increase in minimum wages would increase unemployment. Since we really don’t know what the provisos are, we simply shouldn’t group the two categories.

Comparing the results of the four surveys, we see a clear trend: a decline in the percentage of those who generally agreed and a rise in the percentage of those who disagreed. If these surveys show anything at all, they show the gradual breakdown of consensus with regard to the minimum wage proposition.

This breakdown of consensus almost certainly reflects the work of David Card, Lawrence Katz, Allan Krueger and others, much of it published in the early 1990 s, which concluded that minimum wage increases often have a zero or even a positive impact on employment. These results were the subject of a lively debate, discussed in Card and Krueger’s 1995 book Myth and Measurement. ${ }^{6}$

The tone of the debate has often been rather heated. Card and Krueger have been accused of practicing ‘politically correct’ economics and of deliberately using suspect data in one of their studies. 7 For their part, Card and Krueger have presented evidence of ‘publication bias’ that makes results that are contrary to textbook conventional wisdom harder to publish. ${ }^{8}$a

经济代写|微观经济学代写Microeconomics代考|Labour markets are not like the market for bananas

When Tim Bray resigned as a Vice President of Amazon over the firing of employees who had protested workplace safety during the pandemic, he wrote the following on his blog: ‘At the end of the day, the big problem isn’t the specifics of Covid-19 response. It’s that Amazon treats the humans in the warehouses as fungible units of pick-and-pack potential. Only that’s not just Amazon, that’s how $21^{\text {st }}$-century capitalism is done. ${ }^{29}$

The treatment of workers that Mr. Bray describes is the very same treatment they receive in the standard text’s model of the labour market. It makes a critical assumption that it hides in plain sight: ‘it assumes that labour can be purchased in a manner similar to the way bananas change hands in some fruit market’, as Yanis Varoufakis describes it. ${ }^{3}$ He adds that once it’s assumed that labour can be quantified like this, it is also assumed that these quantities of labour can be combined with other factors of production to produce specific amounts of output. This is the assumption that was made in the Standard Text part of Chapter 5 when we consider the firm’s production and costs.

The ideas that we looked at in the previous section suggest that labour is a special commodity. The workers who are renting out their time care about fair treatment and are sensitive to their social status in the workplace, among other things. People also care about what they do, unlike in the standard model where hours of work are hired by whoever pays the most. ${ }^{31}$
The version of efficiency wages that appears in some texts (and in our Standard Text) acknowledges that the amount of work effort that the employer receives from hiring an hour of work is not constant, but it does not pursue its implications. Workerswill increase theirworkeffort the greater the opportunity cost of losing their jobs as reflected by time spent unemployed. The texts fail to note the link between the general level of unemployment and employers’ power to extract more work effort. If employers could costlessly monitor workers, that link would be even stronger. Technological developments now allow almost costless monitoring for some jobs, such as the pick-and-pack jobs in Amazon warehouses.

Because contracts between employers and workers are necessarily incomplete and can’t specify the level of work effort, employers can try to dictate the pace of work using ‘the threat of dismissal and other psychological methods. It is these important determinants of the profit/ wage link that the textbook theory does not account for’, as Yanis Varoufakis explains. ${ }^{32}$ By portraying labour as just another commodity, it serves to obscure, whether intentionally or not, the incentive and ability of employers to exercise some degree of power over employees, who may resist that in various ways.

经济代写|微观经济学代写Microeconomics代考|THE ANTI-TEXT

微观经济学代考

经济代写|微观经济学代写Microeconomics代考|Textbooks ignore their own methodology

教科书强调,模型不能通过其假设的现实性来判断,而只能通过其预测的准确性来判断。然而,在典型的主流教科书的这一章中,提出了几个模型,并且它们的预测没有经过事实检验。相反,关于专业化和贸易(例如)的好处的预测被表述为好像它们已经被模型证明了。在教科书的如此早期的章节中,这种缺乏测试的情况也许可以原谅。但同样的遗漏在随后的章节中继续存在。很少有证据支持模型的预测,更不用说系统地考虑证据了。

此外,教科书往往未能阐明模型测试的比较性质。真正的问题始终是模型相对于替代模型的性能如何。一组假设相对于另一组假设的表现如何。在实践中,除非我们有可以做得更好的替代方案,否则不会放弃性能不佳的模型。教科书没有提到与模型选择相关的困难。

为什么教科书没有一致地将预测能力测试应用于他们提出的模型?一个可能的答案是,预测能力并不是它所声称的那样。预测能力在物理或化学等自然科学中可能很好,但在经济学等社会科学中,有太多无法控制的变量,它根本无法给我们确定的答案。因此,如果我们仅限于谈论已经通过经验证据最终解决的事情,那么我们将无话可说。让我们更详细地考虑这个问题。

经济代写|微观经济学代写Microeconomics代考|Testing economic theories in practice

如果实证经济学的官方方法可靠地工作,经济学家之间应该就实证问题达成广泛共识。确实,许多文本声称情况如此。例如,Gregory Mankiw 声称 79% 的经济学家同意“最低工资会增加年轻和非技术工人的失业率”。显然,该数字来自表 2 .3 中引用的 1990 年调查。让我们考虑一下这个所谓的共识。已发表四次调查,结果见表2.3.

从表2.3我们看到,要在 1990 年的调查中获得 79% 的同意最低工资主张,必须在“同意附带条件”类别中添加“普遍同意”类别。这有点冒昧,不是吗?如果附带条件与最低工资增长幅度有关怎么办?例如,假设最低工资翻一番会增加青年失业率,但增加 20% 不会。如果这是附带条件,那么“同意附带条件”的经济学家将持有“异端”信念。正如我们将在下一章中看到的,教科书的预测是最低工资的任何增加都会增加失业率。由于我们真的不知道附带条件是什么,我们根本不应该将这两个类别归为一类。

比较四次调查的结果,我们看到了一个明显的趋势:普遍同意的比例下降,不同意的比例上升。如果这些调查显示了任何东西,它们表明关于最低工资提议的共识正在逐渐瓦解。

这种共识的崩溃几乎肯定反映了 David Card、Lawrence Katz、Allan Krueger 和其他人的工作,其中大部分发表于 1990 年代初期,其结论是最低工资增长通常对就业产生零甚至积极的影响。这些结果是激烈辩论的主题,在 Card 和 Krueger 1995 年的著作 Myth and Measurement 中进行了讨论。6

辩论的基调往往相当激烈。Card 和 Krueger 被指控在他们的一项研究中实践“政治正确”经济学并故意使用可疑数据。7 对于他们来说,Card 和 Krueger 提出了“发表偏见”的证据,这使得与教科书传统智慧相悖的结果更难发表。8一个

经济代写|微观经济学代写Microeconomics代考|Labour markets are not like the market for bananas

当蒂姆·布雷(Tim Bray)因解雇在大流行期间抗议工作场所安全的员工而辞去亚马逊副总裁职务时,他在博客上写道:“归根结底,最大的问题不是新冠病毒的具体情况-19 响应。亚马逊将仓库中的人员视为具有拣选和打包潜力的可替代单位。只是这不仅仅是亚马逊,就是这样21英石 -世纪资本主义已经完成。29

布雷先生描述的工人待遇与标准文本的劳动力市场模型中的待遇完全相同。它提出了一个隐藏在视线范围内的关键假设:“它假设劳动力可以以类似于香蕉在某些水果市场易手的方式购买”,正如 Yanis Varoufakis 所描述的那样。3他补充说,一旦假设劳动力可以像这样量化,那么也假设这些劳动力数量可以与其他生产要素相结合以产生特定数量的产出。这是我们在考虑公司的生产和成本时在第 5 章的标准文本部分做出的假设。

我们在上一节中看到的想法表明,劳动力是一种特殊的商品。出租时间的工人关心公平待遇,并对他们在工作场所的社会地位等敏感。人们也关心他们所做的事情,这与标准模式不同,标准模式中,工作时间由支付最多的人雇佣。31
某些文本(以及我们的标准文本)中出现的效率工资版本承认,雇主从雇用一小时工作中获得的工作量不是恒定的,但它并没有追究其含义。失业的机会成本越大,工人的工作量就会越大,这反映在失业时间上。文本没有指出总体失业水平与雇主榨取更多工作努力的权力之间的联系。如果雇主可以无成本地监控工人,这种联系会更加牢固。技术发展现在允许对某些工作进行几乎无成本的监控,例如亚马逊仓库中的拣货和包装工作。

因为雇主和工人之间的合同必然是不完整的,并且不能指定工作努力的水平,雇主可以尝试使用“解雇威胁和其他心理方法来决定工作节奏”。正如 Yanis Varoufakis 解释的那样,教科书理论没有考虑到的正是这些利润/工资联系的重要决定因素。32通过将劳动力描述为另一种商品,无论是否有意,它都会掩盖雇主对雇员行使某种程度权力的动机和能力,而雇员可能会以各种方式抵制这种权力。

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金融工程代写

金融工程是使用数学技术来解决金融问题。金融工程使用计算机科学、统计学、经济学和应用数学领域的工具和知识来解决当前的金融问题,以及设计新的和创新的金融产品。

非参数统计代写

非参数统计指的是一种统计方法,其中不假设数据来自于由少数参数决定的规定模型;这种模型的例子包括正态分布模型和线性回归模型。

广义线性模型代考

广义线性模型(GLM)归属统计学领域,是一种应用灵活的线性回归模型。该模型允许因变量的偏差分布有除了正态分布之外的其它分布。

术语 广义线性模型(GLM)通常是指给定连续和/或分类预测因素的连续响应变量的常规线性回归模型。它包括多元线性回归,以及方差分析和方差分析(仅含固定效应)。

有限元方法代写

有限元方法(FEM)是一种流行的方法,用于数值解决工程和数学建模中出现的微分方程。典型的问题领域包括结构分析、传热、流体流动、质量运输和电磁势等传统领域。

有限元是一种通用的数值方法,用于解决两个或三个空间变量的偏微分方程(即一些边界值问题)。为了解决一个问题,有限元将一个大系统细分为更小、更简单的部分,称为有限元。这是通过在空间维度上的特定空间离散化来实现的,它是通过构建对象的网格来实现的:用于求解的数值域,它有有限数量的点。边界值问题的有限元方法表述最终导致一个代数方程组。该方法在域上对未知函数进行逼近。[1] 然后将模拟这些有限元的简单方程组合成一个更大的方程系统,以模拟整个问题。然后,有限元通过变化微积分使相关的误差函数最小化来逼近一个解决方案。

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随机分析代写


随机微积分是数学的一个分支,对随机过程进行操作。它允许为随机过程的积分定义一个关于随机过程的一致的积分理论。这个领域是由日本数学家伊藤清在第二次世界大战期间创建并开始的。

时间序列分析代写

随机过程,是依赖于参数的一组随机变量的全体,参数通常是时间。 随机变量是随机现象的数量表现,其时间序列是一组按照时间发生先后顺序进行排列的数据点序列。通常一组时间序列的时间间隔为一恒定值(如1秒,5分钟,12小时,7天,1年),因此时间序列可以作为离散时间数据进行分析处理。研究时间序列数据的意义在于现实中,往往需要研究某个事物其随时间发展变化的规律。这就需要通过研究该事物过去发展的历史记录,以得到其自身发展的规律。

回归分析代写

多元回归分析渐进(Multiple Regression Analysis Asymptotics)属于计量经济学领域,主要是一种数学上的统计分析方法,可以分析复杂情况下各影响因素的数学关系,在自然科学、社会和经济学等多个领域内应用广泛。

MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中,其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括:数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发,包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统,其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题,尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题,而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问,这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展,得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中,它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域,MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要,工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数(M 文件)的综合集合,可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。

R语言代写问卷设计与分析代写
PYTHON代写回归分析与线性模型代写
MATLAB代写方差分析与试验设计代写
STATA代写机器学习/统计学习代写
SPSS代写计量经济学代写
EVIEWS代写时间序列分析代写
EXCEL代写深度学习代写
SQL代写各种数据建模与可视化代写

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