### 经济代写|宏观经济学作业代写Macroeconomics代考|Malthus and the Asian Tigers

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• Statistical Inference 统计推断
• Statistical Computing 统计计算
• (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
• Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
• Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

## 经济代写|宏观经济学作业代写Macroeconomics代考|Malthus and the Asian Tigers and Its Weaknesses

At the end of the eighteenth century, following years in which the economy grew very slowly, important analysts doubted that economic growth would ever be enough to support the rapidly increasing population. Thomas Malthus, a famous British thinker, viewed the population increase occurring in Britain with great pessimism. In addition, he was convinced that per capita GDP would fall under the weight of a demographic explosion. According to his point of view, if the population exceeded the economic capacity, then the number of inhabitants would be adjusted, if not by wars, by disasters such as famines or epidemics. In his own words:

The power of population is so superior to the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race. The vices of mankind are active and able ministers of depopulation. They are the precursors in the great army of destruction, and often finish the dreadful work themselves. But should they fail in this war of extermination, sickly seasons, epidemics, pestilence and plague advance in terrific array, and sweep off their thousands and

tens of thousands. Should success still be incomplete, gigantic inevitable famine stalks in the rear, and with one mighty blow levels the population with the food of the world. (Malthus, “First Essay on Population $\left.1798^{\prime}\right)$
Fortunately, Malthus committed one of the most important prediction errors in world economic history. Although some regions have advanced much more than others, the global economy has generally experienced sustained and unprecedented economic growth over the last two centuries. One notable case is that of the so-called Asian tigers-South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore. These countries were essentially poor economies dependent on foreign aid in the early 1960 s; however, between 1960 and 2000 , their GDP per capita increased, on average, at a rate of 6 percent per year. These figures are even more impressive compared to the $1.6$ percent per annum observed in Latin America and the $2.7$ percent per annum experienced by industrialized nations that are members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) for that same period. In South Korea, for example, per capita GDP grew at an average annual rate of $5.9$ percent during those four decades. In other words, in just over a generation the average Korean became ten times richer!

## 经济代写|宏观经济学作业代写Macroeconomics代考|Sources of Growth

In the previous chapter, we indicated that the production function is the relationship between output, production inputs, and technology. In this relationship, output growth

is often linked to the degree of technological innovation and to the growth of capital and labor in the economy.
Labor and capital shares are measured in the national accounts. In most Latin American countries, the share of income from labor (i.e., the sum of a country’s citizens’ work income) as a percentage of total GDP is low compared to that of developed countries mainly because labor is relatively abundant and wages are low. Additionally, the share or labor income as a percentage of total GDP may also be low owing to the existence of self-employment and small businesses, which, if not correctly accounted for, hides from the statistician what percentage of income corresponds to wages and how much corresponds to the profits from personal activities.

Let us clarify this point with an example. Assume that the share of labor production of GDP is 40 percent, while the share of capital is 60 percent. Now, suppose that the labor force increases by $1.8$ percent annually, technology grows by $1.6$ percent, and the capital stock grows by $4.2$ percent. In this case, we would predict an annual increase in GDP of $4.8$ percent $(1.6 \%+(0.4 \times 1.8 \%)+(0.6 \times 4.2 \%))$.
An interesting case is that of Chile, where the labor share in GDP is estimated at around 52 percent. Between 1986 and 2015, employment increased by $2.5$ percent annually, the capital stock grew at an average rate of $4.9$ percent, and total factor productivity (TFP) grew at around $1.3$ percent. TFP is the component of economic growth that

is not explained by an increase in the productive factors (capital and labor); thus TFP is interpreted as the fraction of economic growth attributable to technological progress. We would formulate annual GDP growth as $1.3 \%+(0.52$ $\times 2.5 \%)+(0.48 \times 4.9 \%)=5.0$ percent per year. However, this average of two decades hides very diverse behaviors: between 1986 and 1996 GDP grew at an annual average of $7.3$ percent and productivity grew at $3.4$ percent; in the following decade (1997-2007), GDP increased at $4.2$ percent and productivity at $0.77$ percent; while in the last years (2008-2015), GDP grew by $3.4$ percent and productivity decreased by $0.36$ percent (all figures are annual averages). The previous analysis reveals that in recent years, not only did TFP not contribute, on average, to economic growth, it decreased it. This observation highlights the importance of technological progress as a fundamental driver of growth in a country. Technological progress is understood as improvement in the tools needed for the production process, from computational software and programs to specific abilities and knowledge.

Robert Solow, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics for his contributions to growth theory and its measurement, first used his analysis to measure the sources of US growth between 1909 and 1949 . His results were surprising: he estimated that technological progress was responsible for 88 percent of economic growth.

## 经济代写|宏观经济学作业代写Macroeconomics代考|Factors behind Economic Growth

Savings and investment decisions, as well as the efficiency of such investments, depend to a large extent on economic policies, institutions, and even the physical geography of a country or region.

There is now enough evidence to identify the key empirical factors that best explain the growth of different countries over the past forty years.

• Economic policies are fundamental to growth. For example, countries that maintain open markets, both for domestic and for international trade, are generally more successful than more closed economies, where the government actively participates in production and places restrictions on markets. This seems to be the case in Southeast Asian economies, where the size of the countries’trade (the sum of exports and imports) greatly exceeds the value of their GDP. This result is a useful measure of the value of market openness, where trading for more than the value of the GDP indicates that the welfare of a country’s citizens exceeds that which they would have if the GDP were limited to only national production, and more specifically, it is significantly benefited from international production. For example, in 2015, Malaysia’s trade was around $1.3$ times GDP, in Singapore it was $3.3$ times GDP, and in Hong Kong it was no less than 4 times the value of GDP. This degree of openness is far from the Latin American average, where trade accounts for only about 40 percent of GDP ( $0.4$ the value of GDP).
• Political and economic institutions are also decisive factors for growth. For example, countries with a written constitution and where an independent judicial system enforces contracts fairly and within the law tend to show better growth indicators than countries where the government operates outside the law or is corrupt. On the other hand, countries with low bureaucratic costs present better performance than their counterparts, which hinder entrepreneurship by imposing excessive amounts of paperwork and regulations, which drives away investors. Another important element is economic stability, which is key to eliminating unnecessary uncertainty, which may inhibit profitable projects and, therefore, economic
• 54 CHAPTER 3
• growth. Some key economic institutions needed to achieve economic stability are an independent central bank and, in some cases, specific institutional fiscal rules that help provide greater stability to a country.

## 经济代写|宏观经济学作业代写Macroeconomics代考|Factors behind Economic Growth

• 经济政策是增长的基础。例如，在国内和国际贸易方面保持开放市场的国家通常比更封闭的经济体更成功，后者政府积极参与生产并限制市场。东南亚经济体似乎就是这种情况，各国的贸易规模（出口和进口的总和）大大超过其 GDP 的价值。这一结果是衡量市场开放价值的有用指标，其中交易超过 GDP 的价值表明一个国家公民的福利超过了如果 GDP 仅限于国家生产，他们将获得的福利，更具体地说，它显着受益于国际生产。例如，2015 年，马来西亚的贸易额约为1.3乘以国内生产总值，在新加坡是3.3是 GDP 的倍数，而在香港，它不低于 GDP 的 4 倍。这种开放程度与拉丁美洲的平均水平相差甚远，拉丁美洲的贸易仅占 GDP 的 40% 左右（0.4GDP 的价值）。
• 政治和经济制度也是增长的决定性因素。例如，拥有成文宪法和独立司法系统在法律范围内公平执行合同的国家往往显示出比政府违法或腐败的国家更好的增长指标。另一方面，官僚成本低的国家表现出比其他国家更好的表现，这会通过施加过多的文书工作和法规来阻碍创业，从而赶走投资者。另一个重要因素是经济稳定性，这是消除不必要的不​​确定性的关键，这可能会抑制盈利项目，因此，经济
• 54 第三章
• 生长。实现经济稳定所需的一些关键经济机构是独立的中央银行，在某些情况下，还包括有助于为国家提供更大稳定性的特定机构财政规则。

## 广义线性模型代考

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## MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。