经济代写|宏观经济学作业代写Macroeconomics代考|Malthus and the Asian Tigers

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经济代写|宏观经济学作业代写Macroeconomics代考|Malthus and the Asian Tigers

经济代写|宏观经济学作业代写Macroeconomics代考|Malthus and the Asian Tigers and Its Weaknesses

At the end of the eighteenth century, following years in which the economy grew very slowly, important analysts doubted that economic growth would ever be enough to support the rapidly increasing population. Thomas Malthus, a famous British thinker, viewed the population increase occurring in Britain with great pessimism. In addition, he was convinced that per capita GDP would fall under the weight of a demographic explosion. According to his point of view, if the population exceeded the economic capacity, then the number of inhabitants would be adjusted, if not by wars, by disasters such as famines or epidemics. In his own words:

The power of population is so superior to the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race. The vices of mankind are active and able ministers of depopulation. They are the precursors in the great army of destruction, and often finish the dreadful work themselves. But should they fail in this war of extermination, sickly seasons, epidemics, pestilence and plague advance in terrific array, and sweep off their thousands and

tens of thousands. Should success still be incomplete, gigantic inevitable famine stalks in the rear, and with one mighty blow levels the population with the food of the world. (Malthus, “First Essay on Population $\left.1798^{\prime}\right)$
Fortunately, Malthus committed one of the most important prediction errors in world economic history. Although some regions have advanced much more than others, the global economy has generally experienced sustained and unprecedented economic growth over the last two centuries. One notable case is that of the so-called Asian tigers-South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore. These countries were essentially poor economies dependent on foreign aid in the early 1960 s; however, between 1960 and 2000 , their GDP per capita increased, on average, at a rate of 6 percent per year. These figures are even more impressive compared to the $1.6$ percent per annum observed in Latin America and the $2.7$ percent per annum experienced by industrialized nations that are members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) for that same period. In South Korea, for example, per capita GDP grew at an average annual rate of $5.9$ percent during those four decades. In other words, in just over a generation the average Korean became ten times richer!

经济代写|宏观经济学作业代写Macroeconomics代考|Sources of Growth

In the previous chapter, we indicated that the production function is the relationship between output, production inputs, and technology. In this relationship, output growth

is often linked to the degree of technological innovation and to the growth of capital and labor in the economy.
Labor and capital shares are measured in the national accounts. In most Latin American countries, the share of income from labor (i.e., the sum of a country’s citizens’ work income) as a percentage of total GDP is low compared to that of developed countries mainly because labor is relatively abundant and wages are low. Additionally, the share or labor income as a percentage of total GDP may also be low owing to the existence of self-employment and small businesses, which, if not correctly accounted for, hides from the statistician what percentage of income corresponds to wages and how much corresponds to the profits from personal activities.

Let us clarify this point with an example. Assume that the share of labor production of GDP is 40 percent, while the share of capital is 60 percent. Now, suppose that the labor force increases by $1.8$ percent annually, technology grows by $1.6$ percent, and the capital stock grows by $4.2$ percent. In this case, we would predict an annual increase in GDP of $4.8$ percent $(1.6 \%+(0.4 \times 1.8 \%)+(0.6 \times 4.2 \%))$.
An interesting case is that of Chile, where the labor share in GDP is estimated at around 52 percent. Between 1986 and 2015, employment increased by $2.5$ percent annually, the capital stock grew at an average rate of $4.9$ percent, and total factor productivity (TFP) grew at around $1.3$ percent. TFP is the component of economic growth that

is not explained by an increase in the productive factors (capital and labor); thus TFP is interpreted as the fraction of economic growth attributable to technological progress. We would formulate annual GDP growth as $1.3 \%+(0.52$ $\times 2.5 \%)+(0.48 \times 4.9 \%)=5.0$ percent per year. However, this average of two decades hides very diverse behaviors: between 1986 and 1996 GDP grew at an annual average of $7.3$ percent and productivity grew at $3.4$ percent; in the following decade (1997-2007), GDP increased at $4.2$ percent and productivity at $0.77$ percent; while in the last years (2008-2015), GDP grew by $3.4$ percent and productivity decreased by $0.36$ percent (all figures are annual averages). The previous analysis reveals that in recent years, not only did TFP not contribute, on average, to economic growth, it decreased it. This observation highlights the importance of technological progress as a fundamental driver of growth in a country. Technological progress is understood as improvement in the tools needed for the production process, from computational software and programs to specific abilities and knowledge.

Robert Solow, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics for his contributions to growth theory and its measurement, first used his analysis to measure the sources of US growth between 1909 and 1949 . His results were surprising: he estimated that technological progress was responsible for 88 percent of economic growth.

经济代写|宏观经济学作业代写Macroeconomics代考|Factors behind Economic Growth

Savings and investment decisions, as well as the efficiency of such investments, depend to a large extent on economic policies, institutions, and even the physical geography of a country or region.

There is now enough evidence to identify the key empirical factors that best explain the growth of different countries over the past forty years.

  • Economic policies are fundamental to growth. For example, countries that maintain open markets, both for domestic and for international trade, are generally more successful than more closed economies, where the government actively participates in production and places restrictions on markets. This seems to be the case in Southeast Asian economies, where the size of the countries’trade (the sum of exports and imports) greatly exceeds the value of their GDP. This result is a useful measure of the value of market openness, where trading for more than the value of the GDP indicates that the welfare of a country’s citizens exceeds that which they would have if the GDP were limited to only national production, and more specifically, it is significantly benefited from international production. For example, in 2015, Malaysia’s trade was around $1.3$ times GDP, in Singapore it was $3.3$ times GDP, and in Hong Kong it was no less than 4 times the value of GDP. This degree of openness is far from the Latin American average, where trade accounts for only about 40 percent of GDP ( $0.4$ the value of GDP).
  • Political and economic institutions are also decisive factors for growth. For example, countries with a written constitution and where an independent judicial system enforces contracts fairly and within the law tend to show better growth indicators than countries where the government operates outside the law or is corrupt. On the other hand, countries with low bureaucratic costs present better performance than their counterparts, which hinder entrepreneurship by imposing excessive amounts of paperwork and regulations, which drives away investors. Another important element is economic stability, which is key to eliminating unnecessary uncertainty, which may inhibit profitable projects and, therefore, economic
  • 54 CHAPTER 3
  • growth. Some key economic institutions needed to achieve economic stability are an independent central bank and, in some cases, specific institutional fiscal rules that help provide greater stability to a country.
经济代写|宏观经济学作业代写Macroeconomics代考|Malthus and the Asian Tigers


经济代写|宏观经济学作业代写Macroeconomics代考|Malthus and the Asian Tigers and Its Weaknesses

在 18 世纪末,在经济增长非常缓慢的几年之后,重要的分析家怀疑经济增长是否足以支持快速增长的人口。英国著名思想家托马斯·马尔萨斯(Thomas Malthus)对英国出现的人口增长持非常悲观的态度。此外,他确信人均 GDP 将受到人口爆炸的影响。按照他的观点,如果人口超过了经济承受能力,那么人口数量就会被调整,如果不是通过战争,也会通过饥荒或流行病等灾难来调整。用他自己的话来说:


幸运的是,马尔萨斯犯下了世界经济史上最重要的预测错误之一。尽管一些地区的进步远超其他地区,但全球经济在过去两个世纪中普遍经历了持续且前所未有的经济增长。一个值得注意的案例是所谓的亚洲四小龙——韩国、香港、台湾和新加坡。在 1960 年代初期,这些国家本质上是依赖外援的贫穷经济体;然而,从 1960 年到 2000 年,他们的人均 GDP 平均以每年 6% 的速度增长。这些数字相比于1.6在拉丁美洲观察到的年百分比和2.7经济合作与发展组织 (OECD) 成员的工业化国家在同一时期每年经历的百分比。例如,在韩国,人均 GDP 年均增长率为5.9在这四个十年中的百分比。换句话说,在短短一代人的时间里,普通的韩国人变得富裕了十倍!

经济代写|宏观经济学作业代写Macroeconomics代考|Sources of Growth


劳动和资本份额在国民账户中衡量。在大多数拉美国家,劳动力收入(即一个国家公民的工作收入之和)占GDP总量的比重低于发达国家,主要是因为劳动力相对丰富,工资较低。此外,由于自营职业和小企业的存在,占 GDP 总额的份额或劳动收入也可能较低,如果没有正确计算,统计人员会隐藏收入的百分比与工资相对应的百分比以及如何很大程度上对应于个人活动的利润。

让我们用一个例子来阐明这一点。假设劳动生产占 GDP 的比重为 40%,而资本占 GDP 的比重为 60%。现在,假设劳动力增加1.8每年百分之一,技术增长1.6%,资本存量增长4.2百分。在这种情况下,我们将预测 GDP 的年增长率为4.8百分(1.6%+(0.4×1.8%)+(0.6×4.2%)).
一个有趣的案例是智利,其劳动力在 GDP 中的份额估计约为 52%。1986 年至 2015 年间,就业人数增加了2.5%,资本存量年均增长4.9%,全要素生产率 (TFP) 增长约1.3百分。全要素生产率是经济增长的组成部分

不能用生产要素(资本和劳动力)的增加来解释;因此,全要素生产率被解释为可归因于技术进步的经济增长比例。我们将把年 GDP 增长公式化为1.3%+(0.52 ×2.5%)+(0.48×4.9%)=5.0每年百分之几。然而,这 20 年的平均值隐藏着非常多样化的行为:1986 年至 1996 年间,GDP 年均增长7.3百分比和生产力增长3.4百分; 在接下来的十年(1997-2007 年),GDP 增长了4.2百分比和生产率0.77百分; 而在过去几年(2008-2015 年),GDP 增长了3.4百分比和生产力下降0.36百分比(所有数字均为年度平均值)。先前的分析表明,近年来,平均而言,全要素生产率不仅对经济增长没有贡献,反而降低了。这一观察强调了技术进步作为一个国家增长的基本驱动力的重要性。技术进步被理解为生产过程所需工具的改进,从计算软件和程序到特定的能力和知识。

诺贝尔经济学奖得主罗伯特·索洛(Robert Solow)因其对增长理论及其衡量的贡献而首次使用他的分析来衡量 1909 年至 1949 年间美国增长的来源。他的结果令人惊讶:他估计技术进步对经济增长的贡献率为 88%。

经济代写|宏观经济学作业代写Macroeconomics代考|Factors behind Economic Growth



  • 经济政策是增长的基础。例如,在国内和国际贸易方面保持开放市场的国家通常比更封闭的经济体更成功,后者政府积极参与生产并限制市场。东南亚经济体似乎就是这种情况,各国的贸易规模(出口和进口的总和)大大超过其 GDP 的价值。这一结果是衡量市场开放价值的有用指标,其中交易超过 GDP 的价值表明一个国家公民的福利超过了如果 GDP 仅限于国家生产,他们将获得的福利,更具体地说,它显着受益于国际生产。例如,2015 年,马来西亚的贸易额约为1.3乘以国内生产总值,在新加坡是3.3是 GDP 的倍数,而在香港,它不低于 GDP 的 4 倍。这种开放程度与拉丁美洲的平均水平相差甚远,拉丁美洲的贸易仅占 GDP 的 40% 左右(0.4GDP 的价值)。
  • 政治和经济制度也是增长的决定性因素。例如,拥有成文宪法和独立司法系统在法律范围内公平执行合同的国家往往显示出比政府违法或腐败的国家更好的增长指标。另一方面,官僚成本低的国家表现出比其他国家更好的表现,这会通过施加过多的文书工作和法规来阻碍创业,从而赶走投资者。另一个重要因素是经济稳定性,这是消除不必要的不​​确定性的关键,这可能会抑制盈利项目,因此,经济
  • 54 第三章
  • 生长。实现经济稳定所需的一些关键经济机构是独立的中央银行,在某些情况下,还包括有助于为国家提供更大稳定性的特定机构财政规则。
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在概率论概念中,随机过程随机变量的集合。 若一随机系统的样本点是随机函数,则称此函数为样本函数,这一随机系统全部样本函数的集合是一个随机过程。 实际应用中,样本函数的一般定义在时间域或者空间域。 随机过程的实例如股票和汇率的波动、语音信号、视频信号、体温的变化,随机运动如布朗运动、随机徘徊等等。


贝叶斯统计概念及数据分析表示使用概率陈述回答有关未知参数的研究问题以及统计范式。后验分布包括关于参数的先验分布,和基于观测数据提供关于参数的信息似然模型。根据选择的先验分布和似然模型,后验分布可以解析或近似,例如,马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗 (MCMC) 方法之一。贝叶斯统计概念及数据分析使用后验分布来形成模型参数的各种摘要,包括点估计,如后验平均值、中位数、百分位数和称为可信区间的区间估计。此外,所有关于模型参数的统计检验都可以表示为基于估计后验分布的概率报表。





随着AI的大潮到来,Machine Learning逐渐成为一个新的学习热点。同时与传统CS相比,Machine Learning在其他领域也有着广泛的应用,因此这门学科成为不仅折磨CS专业同学的“小恶魔”,也是折磨生物、化学、统计等其他学科留学生的“大魔王”。学习Machine learning的一大绊脚石在于使用语言众多,跨学科范围广,所以学习起来尤其困难。但是不管你在学习Machine Learning时遇到任何难题,StudyGate专业导师团队都能为你轻松解决。


基础数据: $N$ 个样本, $P$ 个变量数的单样本,组成的横列的数据表
变量定性: 分类和顺序;变量定量:数值
数学公式的角度分为: 因变量与自变量


随机过程,是依赖于参数的一组随机变量的全体,参数通常是时间。 随机变量是随机现象的数量表现,其时间序列是一组按照时间发生先后顺序进行排列的数据点序列。通常一组时间序列的时间间隔为一恒定值(如1秒,5分钟,12小时,7天,1年),因此时间序列可以作为离散时间数据进行分析处理。研究时间序列数据的意义在于现实中,往往需要研究某个事物其随时间发展变化的规律。这就需要通过研究该事物过去发展的历史记录,以得到其自身发展的规律。


多元回归分析渐进(Multiple Regression Analysis Asymptotics)属于计量经济学领域,主要是一种数学上的统计分析方法,可以分析复杂情况下各影响因素的数学关系,在自然科学、社会和经济学等多个领域内应用广泛。


MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中,其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括:数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发,包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统,其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题,尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题,而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问,这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展,得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中,它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域,MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要,工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数(M 文件)的综合集合,可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。



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