### 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|ECON 7001

statistics-lab™ 为您的留学生涯保驾护航 在代写产业经济学Industrial Economics方面已经树立了自己的口碑, 保证靠谱, 高质且原创的统计Statistics代写服务。我们的专家在代写产业经济学Industrial Economics代写方面经验极为丰富，各种代写产业经济学Industrial Economics相关的作业也就用不着说。

• Statistical Inference 统计推断
• Statistical Computing 统计计算
• (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
• Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
• Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Analysis of prosperity index in the first half of 2016

It is indicated by the leading index and concordance index that the first half of 2016 greeted a slow pickup trend of prosperity from a low level. In January and February 2016 , the prosperity of leading index fell into the range of negative values under the influence of sluggish prosperity in 2015 but assumed a constant pickup trend, and it further recovered above zero in March 2016 . The concordance index presented a trend ascending year over year and descending month over month. In Fig. 2.1, the prosperity of concordance index ascended for a time to about $0.4$ of that in January and descended afterwards to almost zero, but it picked up in March 2016, generally higher than the prosperity in the same period last year, regardless of a descending

trend that took place later. The lagging index (mainly including export information and price information) indicated some risks in such growth. In 2016, exclusive of March and June, the prosperity of lagging index remained below zero with a greater degree of fluctuation. For some time in the future, there will be increasing uncertainties about growth of industrial economics.

According to prosperity indicators, (1) the fringe market improved greatly; the PMI of American manufacturing industry bounced back over the threshold; the PMI of Eurozone manufacturing industry maintained above the threshold and assumed an uptrend. The economic situation of developed countries would eventually have effect on China’s export trade; despite a substantial decline in China’s general trade export volume in the first quarter of 2016 , the export volume grew $20 \%$ year on year in March; but there had been no substantial growth in the export volume of general trade as the domestic market of China remained in adjustment; (2) the real estate market witnessed brisk trades. In the first half of 2016 , the area sold of real estate grew rapidly. From January to June 2016, it reached $643.02$ million square meters, growing $27.9 \%$ year on year; the sales of real estate amounted to RMB $4.8682$ trillion, growing $42.1 \%$. The investment scale of real estate development maintained a moderate-rapid rate of growth; from January to June 2016, it grew $6.1 \%$ year on year, indicating a limited role of real estate market in driving industrial growth; (3) there was a slowdown in growth of fixed asset investment and a notable decline in industrial fixed asset investment. From January to June 2016 , the fixed asset investment in China amounted to RMB $25.836$ trillion (excluding peasant households), with nominal year-on-year growth of $9 \%$ (it was actually $11 \%$ after adjusting for inflation). The investment in the secondary industry amounted to RMB $10.1702$ trillion, growing $4.4 \%, 16.7$ and $7.7$ percentage points lower than the primary industry the tertiary industry respectively, where the industrial investment amounted to RMB $9.9594$ trillion, growing $4.2 \%$ year on year, and the manufacturing investment amounted to RMB $8.2261$ trillion, growing $3.3 \%$ only; (4) under the influence of overcapacity and inventory adjustment, the outputs of industrial products saw an uneven year-on-year growth, e.g. the outputs of cast iron, crude steel and coke kept sagging while those of ethylene and aluminum products kept growing; and (5) the money supply M1 grew rapidly while M2 slowed down. In response to the downturn risks of industrial economics, Chinese government exercised proactive monetary policy, resulting in a significant growth in money supply; nevertheless, the growth rate of money supply M2 tended to slow down due to the risk of the rising non-performing loan ratio (Table 2.1).

The steady rise in leading indexes predicted a quarter-long slow growth of the industrial economics for some time in the future, but the industrial economics would be under big downward pressure as it remained in growing pains of rebalance. Specifically, firstly, the ex-factory price index of industrial products remained within a negative range, the industrial overcapacity failed to improve in real sense, and the main industrial products trading market was not as active as expected; secondly, this round of growth of industrial economics was still dependent heavily on pickup of real estate market, and there would be limited space for growth in the future as the real estate market entered the period of adjustment; thirdly, the fixed asset investment remained a main force in supporting this round of slow growth of industrial economics, and the main sectors that could drive growth of fixed asset investment were infrastructure investment and real estate market investment while the manufacturing fixed asset investment remained at a low level; and fourthly, the loose monetary policy played a positive role in promoting pickup of real estate market, but the exit of the loose monetary policy would inevitably restrain the growing trend of the real estate market and further compromise demands of industrial products. Generally, this round of industrial economics growth as a continuity of the old investment-driven development pattern failed to result in any new growth points. Considering the transition of China’s economic development from the industry-driven pattem to the service-driven pattern, there would be an irresistible trend of rapid growth of the service industry and slowdown of industrial growth.

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Factors Influencing the Trend Variation of Industrial Economics

The decline of fixed asset investment in industrial sectors would inevitably lead to a slowing growth rate of capital stock and usher in a falling trend of industrial sectors. The innovative development strategy and global technological revolution initiated by Chinese Government would be a strong support for growth of industrial economics.
(1) Lower and lower investment return of industrial enterprises and continuous downsizing of the fixed asset investment

Since reform and opening up in 1979 , the profit scale of Chinese industrial sectors had expanded constantly; especially since the year of 2002 , it grew at a rate up to $20 \%$ and made it possible for industrial investment return to maintain a high level. Since the year of 2011 , however, the profit growth rate of industrial sectors slowed down even to a negative rate. As the profit growth rate remained low, the

investment return receded gradually. Bai Chong’en and Zhang Qiong (2014) ${ }^{1}$ pointed out that since the year 2011 China’s return on invested capital presented a constantly declining trend, i.e. $21.1,16.6$ and $14.7 \%$ respectively from 2011 to 2013. The return on invested capital of industrial sectors stayed basically consistent with that of the whole society. The former’s decline would result in transfer of investment into other industries and into overseas market. Data showed that from 2005 to 2013 , the fixed asset investment of industrial sectors took up all the time over $40 \%$ of the total fixed assets investment; however, since the year of 2014 , the fixed asset fell back to $39.9 \%$ and presented a trend of continuous decline (Fig. 2.2).

The growth of private fixed asset investment ushered in this round of the declining trend in fixed asset investment. Over years, the growth of private fixed asset investment in the secondary industry has all the time outnumbered the growth of total fixed asset investment and thus become the main force of fixed asset investment in the secondary industry. In March 2016 , however, the private fixed asset investment in the secondary industry began to present a declining trend and became a leading force to bring down the growth of fixed asset investment (Fig. 2.3).

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Factors Influencing the Trend Variation of Industrial Economics

（一）工业企业投资回报率越来越低，固定资产投资规模不断缩小

1979年改革开放以来，中国工业部门利润规模不断扩大；尤其是2002年以来，增长速度高达20%使工业投资回报率保持较高水平。但2011年以来，工业部门利润增速放缓，甚至出现负增长。由于利润增长率保持低位，

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