## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|ECON3400

statistics-lab™ 为您的留学生涯保驾护航 在代写产业经济学Industrial Economics方面已经树立了自己的口碑, 保证靠谱, 高质且原创的统计Statistics代写服务。我们的专家在代写产业经济学Industrial Economics代写方面经验极为丰富，各种代写产业经济学Industrial Economics相关的作业也就用不着说。

• Statistical Inference 统计推断
• Statistical Computing 统计计算
• (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
• Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
• Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Non-collusive price equilibria

A large majority of economists – in my personal experience – think that if sellers announce, post or publish their (non-collusive) prices, they therefore use Bertrand strategies and thereby reveal that the Bertrand model is the appropriate one to use. Some even go as far as to argue that the Bertrand model has descriptive value. In my opinion, this reasoning is mistaken and results from a misunderstanding of the Cournot model. I shall indeed argue that it makes perfect sense to use Cournot strategies to explain real-world pricing.

Let us have a closer look at Sutton’s example of a Cournot subgame (presented above in section 1.2). Market demand is $X=S / p$. There are $N$ identical firms, selling a homogeneous good, with profit function
$$\Pi_{i}=(p-c) x_{i}$$
where $p=S / X$. Let $X=X_{-i}+x_{i}$, where $X_{-i}$ is the sum of the outputs of all $i$ ‘s rivals. Then this profit function becomes
$$\Pi_{i}=\left(\frac{S}{X_{-i}+x_{i}}-c\right) x_{i}$$
and
$$\frac{\partial \Pi_{i}}{\partial x_{i}}=\frac{-S x_{i}}{\left(X_{-i}+x_{i}\right)^{2}}+\frac{S}{X_{-i}+x_{i}}-c=0$$
are the first-order conditions. Because of the symmetry assumption, $x_{i}=x$ for all $i$ and these conditions become $$\frac{-S x}{(N x)^{2}}+\frac{S}{N x}-c=0$$
or
$$\frac{S(N-1)}{N^{2} x}=c$$
or
$$x=\frac{S}{c} \cdot \frac{N-1}{N^{2}}$$
implying
$$X=N x=\frac{S(N-1)}{c N} .$$

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Pricing schemes

Before tackling their collusive aspect, I want to describe the functioning of a few pricing schemes that are frequently observed.

The Monopolies and Mergers Commission noted in its 1986 report on white salt that over the period under investigation the price of the two UK producers followed a pattern of ‘parallel pricing’. Every time there was a price change, one of the firms announced it while the other firm followed within a couple of weeks with an identical change. You might expect the bigger of the two firms to have been the price leader, but that was not the case: the smaller firm led eight times and the bigger firm led only five times. Notice that whoever took the initiative for a price change, informed the competitor a month in advance, and the latter would then inform the leader of a proposed identical change within that month. This is perhaps the most straightforward example of a pricing scheme as defined by d’Aspremont $e t$ al. (1991). There being only two firms and one taking over the price of the other, there is no need, really, to compute an average price. But the logic is the same: price signals, that is, announced prices are turned into one single price valid for all competitors.

The theoretical underpinning of the experiment on parallel pricing conducted by Harstad, Martin, and Normann (see chapter 6) is taken from MacLeod (1985), who supposes that $n$ firms follow a custom (called a ‘social convention’) which is to react to an announcement of a price change (by any competitor) according to an alignment rule. This rule says that firm $j$ should adopt price changes equal to those announced by $i$, whoever $i$ is. MacLeod applies this rule to differentiated as well as homogeneous goods, while d’Aspremont et al. (1991) consider only the original Cournot case of a homogeneous good, for which the producers must charge the same price in equilibrium. That is why the experiment is based on the assumption that the experimental subjects sell differentiated commodities.

MacLeod imagines the following strategy: (1) when a price increase is announced by a competitor, follow it if it is profitable to do so and if the others do the same; otherwise, do not change your price; (2) when a price decrease is announced by a competitor, follow it as long as it does not lead to prices lower than the prices that would obtain in a static non-collusive Nash equilibrium; (3) if any rival firm does not behave according to (1) and (2), announce the static non-cooperative Nash equilibrium price. Then there exists a non-cooperative equilibrium with prices higher than the noncollusive Nash prices but lower than those which would maximize the joint profit.

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Non-collusive price equilibria

$$\Pi_{i}=(p-c) x_{i}$$

$$\Pi_{i}=\left(\frac{S}{X_{-i}+x_{i}}-c\right) x_{i}$$

$$\frac{\partial \Pi_{i}}{\partial x_{i}}=\frac{-S x_{i}}{\left(X_{-i}+x_{i}\right)^{2}}+\frac{S}{X_{-i}+x_{i}}-c=0$$

$$\frac{-S x}{(N x)^{2}}+\frac{S}{N x}-c=0$$

$$\frac{S(N-1)}{N^{2} x}=c$$

$$x=\frac{S}{c} \cdot \frac{N-1}{N^{2}}$$

$$X=N x=\frac{S(N-1)}{c N} .$$

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Pricing schemes

Harstad、Martin 和 Normann（见第 6 章）进行的平行定价实验的理论基础取自 MacLeod（1985），他假设n公司遵循一种习惯（称为“社会惯例”），即根据对齐规则对（任何竞争对手）宣布的价格变化做出反应。这条规则说，公司j应采用与政府公布的价格变化相等的价格变化一世, 谁一世是。MacLeod 将此规则应用于差异化商品和同质商品，而 d’Aspremont 等人。(1991) 只考虑同质商品的原始古诺案例，生产者必须在均衡时收取相同的价格。这就是为什么实验是基于实验对象销售差异化商品的假设。

MacLeod 设想了以下策略：（1）当竞争对手宣布提价时，如果这样做有利可图，并且其他人也这样做，则遵循它；否则，请勿更改您的价格；(2) 当竞争对手宣布降价时，只要它不会导致价格低于静态非共谋纳什均衡中的价格，就跟随它；(3) 如果任何竞争企业不按照(1)和(2)的行为，公布静态非合作纳什均衡价格。然后存在一个非合作均衡，其价格高于非共谋纳什价格，但低于使联合利润最大化的价格。

## 有限元方法代写

tatistics-lab作为专业的留学生服务机构，多年来已为美国、英国、加拿大、澳洲等留学热门地的学生提供专业的学术服务，包括但不限于Essay代写，Assignment代写，Dissertation代写，Report代写，小组作业代写，Proposal代写，Paper代写，Presentation代写，计算机作业代写，论文修改和润色，网课代做，exam代考等等。写作范围涵盖高中，本科，研究生等海外留学全阶段，辐射金融，经济学，会计学，审计学，管理学等全球99%专业科目。写作团队既有专业英语母语作者，也有海外名校硕博留学生，每位写作老师都拥有过硬的语言能力，专业的学科背景和学术写作经验。我们承诺100%原创，100%专业，100%准时，100%满意。

## MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|ECON3516

statistics-lab™ 为您的留学生涯保驾护航 在代写产业经济学Industrial Economics方面已经树立了自己的口碑, 保证靠谱, 高质且原创的统计Statistics代写服务。我们的专家在代写产业经济学Industrial Economics代写方面经验极为丰富，各种代写产业经济学Industrial Economics相关的作业也就用不着说。

• Statistical Inference 统计推断
• Statistical Computing 统计计算
• (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
• Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
• Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Endogenous sunk costs

In Sutton’s terminology, endogenous sunk costs are those incurred with a view to enhancing consumers’ willingness-to-pay for a specific firm’s product. Implicit is the assumption that there are quality differences (or vertical differentiation) which the firms want to advertise or develop. So these costs are (mainly) advertising and R\&D costs. They increase with $u$, an index of perceived quality. On the consumers’ side, their willingness-to-pay is a non-decreasing function of $u$. Markets with these characteristics are what Schmalensee calls type II markets in chapter $2 .$

The natural thing to do is to take the two-stage game discussed above and insert an intermediate stage in which the firms that decided to enter (at cost $\sigma)$ in the first stage choose a value of $u$ (and therefore an advertising level or an R\&D effort) at a sunk cost $A(u)$ to be added to $\sigma$. In the third stage, then, the vector $\left{u_{i}\right}$ is given and firms compete (à la Cournot for example).

If advertising leads to sufficient increases in demand, then firms will increase their advertising costs $A(u)$ and thus increase total sunk costs $\sigma+A(u)$. Such an escalation of costs raises the equilibrium level of total sunk costs, which has now become endogenous. The end result is that there will not be room in the market for more and more firms as market size increases: market structure does not become more and more fragmented as $S$ increases, in sharp contradiction with type I markets.

All this hinges on the degree of demand responsiveness faced by the individual firms to increases in their advertising or $\mathrm{R} \& \mathrm{D}$ outlays or, in terms of costs, on the returns to these outlays. Sutton (1991, chapter 3 ) uses the convenient specification
$$A(u)=\frac{a}{\gamma}\left(u^{\gamma}-1\right), \quad \gamma>1 .$$
Putting $u=1$, we have $A(1)=0$ and $A^{\prime}(1)=a$. So a small initial outlay at $u=1$ produces a return corresponding to an expense $a$, which is the cost per message. On the other hand, a higher $\gamma$ implies more rapidly diminishing returns. The total fixed outlays function (which can thus be interpreted as the advertising response function) is then
$$\sigma+\frac{a}{\gamma}\left(u^{\gamma}-1\right) .$$

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Dynamics of market expansion and contraction

Chapters 3,4 , and 5 look into the dynamics of how market structure changes over time. The two preceding chapters showed how to determine the equilibrium number of firms $N^{}$. Now the problem is to figure out how $N$ is going to be increased when $N}$, for example when market demand is expanding and the potential producers have come to the conclusion that there is room for additional capacity. The alternative problem is to take the case of a contracting industry in which the producers have come to the conclusion that $N>N^{*}$ and to ask how the industry’s capacity is going to be reduced.

Both cases will be studied with the help of a so-called ‘timing’ game, that is, a game in which the players have to decide at what point in time they will do something. In the case of two players, they have to decide for example who will be first to make an announcement, to decide, to start producing or whatever. Our problem is: which firm will be first to invest in new capacity when demand expands and to close down or divest when demand contracts over time.

In chapter 3 , Ghemawat tells the story of Du Pont’s capacity expansion strategy in the US titanium dioxide industry and shows that it accords with the predictions of a timing game between two firms. Firm 1’s cost of constructing a new plant is lower than firm 2’s. These two firms are participating in a public auction ${ }^{6}$ in which they alternate in making bids about the dates at which they are willing to add capacity between time 0 and time $T$. One firm makes the first bid promising to add new capacity at time $t_{j}^{}$. If the other firm does not announce an earlier date before the end of the auction, that’s it. Alternatively, the other firm can announce that it will invest earlier in period $t_{j}^{}-s$, and thus ‘undercut’ the previous bid. This undercutting goes on as long as the resulting additional profit covers the cost of adding capacity. This profit is the present value of the profits that will be made as of the point in time at which the undercutter would add capacity if he were not undercut himself. Who will be the first to stop this bidding? The first player for which this profit is smaller than the cost of adding capacity (discounted to the present). This must be firm 2: the firm with higher capacity costs will be the first to stop bidding. Consequently, the low-cost firm will find it profitable to pre-empt the others in adding new capacity.

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Endogenous sunk costs

$$A(u)=\frac{a}{\gamma}\left(u^{\gamma}-1\right), \quad \gamma>1 .$$

$$\sigma+\frac{a}{\gamma}\left(u^{\gamma}-1\right) .$$

## 有限元方法代写

tatistics-lab作为专业的留学生服务机构，多年来已为美国、英国、加拿大、澳洲等留学热门地的学生提供专业的学术服务，包括但不限于Essay代写，Assignment代写，Dissertation代写，Report代写，小组作业代写，Proposal代写，Paper代写，Presentation代写，计算机作业代写，论文修改和润色，网课代做，exam代考等等。写作范围涵盖高中，本科，研究生等海外留学全阶段，辐射金融，经济学，会计学，审计学，管理学等全球99%专业科目。写作团队既有专业英语母语作者，也有海外名校硕博留学生，每位写作老师都拥有过硬的语言能力，专业的学科背景和学术写作经验。我们承诺100%原创，100%专业，100%准时，100%满意。

## MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|ECON7400

statistics-lab™ 为您的留学生涯保驾护航 在代写产业经济学Industrial Economics方面已经树立了自己的口碑, 保证靠谱, 高质且原创的统计Statistics代写服务。我们的专家在代写产业经济学Industrial Economics代写方面经验极为丰富，各种代写产业经济学Industrial Economics相关的作业也就用不着说。

• Statistical Inference 统计推断
• Statistical Computing 统计计算
• (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
• Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
• Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|A two-stage game

Why suppose that this game has two stages? Why not suppose that the investments in setting up the equilibrium number of firms and the degree of competition are determined in a one-stage (‘one-shot’) game? The formulation of this question is possibly a bit confusing, in that it may suggest that the two-stage game is solved in two successive steps. So let me emphasize right from the start that the players of such a game solve its successive ‘subgames’ or steps before the game is actually started, as is the case with a one-shot game. (We shall see a bit later how the solution is found.)

The advantage, then, of distinguishing two stages is to disentangle the long-run and the short-run aspects of the problem without separating them. The first step, in which the investments or disinvestments (by entry into or by exit from the industry) are decided, is the long-run aspect of the problem. The second step, in which the profits that motivate the entries or the exits are determined, is the short-run aspect. The latter determines the former. But the former is ‘long-run’, since it is more difficult to change an investment decision than to change a price.

Since my undergraduate days, I have struggled with the distinction between the short run and the long run, which I encountered for the first time in Alfred Marshall’s Principles (1952, book V, chapter V, section 6). I quote:

To sum up then as regards short periods. The supply of specialized skill and ability, of suitable machinery and other material capital, and of the appropriate industrial organization has not time to be fully adapted to demand; but the producers have to adjust their supply to the demand as best they can with the appliances already at their disposal … In long periods on the other hand all investments of capital and effort in providing the material plant and the organization of a business, and in acquiring trade knowledge and specialized ability, have to be adjusted to the incomes which are expected to be earned by them: and the estimates of these incomes therefore directly govern supply.

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Exogenous sunk costs

Salt is a homogeneous commodity. So there is no point in organizing advertising campaigns to promote a particular brand nor is there in investing in $\mathrm{R} \& \mathrm{D}$ outlays to improve the quality of salt. In the absence of fixed costs for advertising and $R \& D$, the only fixed costs salt producers have to care about are the costs of setting up their plant. These costs $(\sigma)$ are exogenously given to them and cannot be recovered: they are sunk costs and therefore play no role in the day-to-day pricing policy.

To be more precise, $\sigma$ is the cost of acquiring a single plant of minimum efficient scale, net of resale value. In the first stage of the game, the entry decision is taken at this cost $\sigma$, which is treated as a fixed parameter in the second stage (so that prices do not depend directly on it). To justify entry, $\sigma$ must be recovered ex post, so entry decisions depend on the interplay between $\sigma$ and the intensity of competition. If competition turns out to be too intensive, then some existing plants have to be closed. (To make sure that the second-stage equilibrium prices are compatible with $\sigma$ and the corresponding market structure, the game is solved backwards as explained above. However, once the game is actually played and circumstances change, inconsistency may indeed arise and lead to a restructuring of the industry.)

Sutton (1991, chapter 2) constructs the following example. Suppose market demand can be specified as $X=S / p$ where $X$ is the total quantity of salt demanded and $p$ is its price, so that $S$ is the total expenditure on salt. $S$ can thus be interpreted as the size of the market, while the price elasticity is supposed to be $-1$. (This specification has the advantage that we can make the market for salt grow or decline by simply letting the parameter $S$ grow or decline.) Suppose also that there is a price $p_{0}$ above which sales are zero.

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Exogenous sunk costs

Sutton（1991 年，第 2 章）构建了以下示例。假设市场需求可以指定为X=小号/p在哪里X是盐需求的总量，并且p是它的价格，所以小号是盐的总支出。小号因此可以解释为市场规模，而价格弹性应该是−1. （这个规范的优点是我们可以通过简单地让参数让盐的市场增长或下降小号增长或下降。）还假设有一个价格p0高于此销售额为零。

## 有限元方法代写

tatistics-lab作为专业的留学生服务机构，多年来已为美国、英国、加拿大、澳洲等留学热门地的学生提供专业的学术服务，包括但不限于Essay代写，Assignment代写，Dissertation代写，Report代写，小组作业代写，Proposal代写，Paper代写，Presentation代写，计算机作业代写，论文修改和润色，网课代做，exam代考等等。写作范围涵盖高中，本科，研究生等海外留学全阶段，辐射金融，经济学，会计学，审计学，管理学等全球99%专业科目。写作团队既有专业英语母语作者，也有海外名校硕博留学生，每位写作老师都拥有过硬的语言能力，专业的学科背景和学术写作经验。我们承诺100%原创，100%专业，100%准时，100%满意。

## MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|ECON4438

statistics-lab™ 为您的留学生涯保驾护航 在代写产业经济学Industrial Economics方面已经树立了自己的口碑, 保证靠谱, 高质且原创的统计Statistics代写服务。我们的专家在代写产业经济学Industrial Economics代写方面经验极为丰富，各种代写产业经济学Industrial Economics相关的作业也就用不着说。

• Statistical Inference 统计推断
• Statistical Computing 统计计算
• (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
• Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
• Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Continue to Deepen Supply-Side Reform and Stimulate New Vitality of Industrial Growth

The supply-side reform’s emphasis on decisive roles of market in resource allocation aims to release new demands and create new supplies; on the one hand, market is supposed to release overcapacity and create new economic growth points, and on the other, the use is made of innovation to form effective supplies with higher quality and stimulate new demands. The supply-side reform is a specific remedy for the currently existing economic issues in China, a new method for China’s economic reform and an effective action to vitalize industrial growth.
Firstly, we need to focus on release of excess capacity and elimination of “zombie” enterprises. The existing excess capacity, “zombie” and loss-making enterprises and low-efficiency or even inefficient assets are consuming huge quantity of resources and hinder transformation and upgrading of industrial structure. The Central Economic Working Conference stated expressly that top priority of supply-side structural reform in 2016 would be given to active and prudent dissolution of excess capacity and release of valuable resource elements from enterprises featuring severely excess capacity and limited space for growth and the “zombie” enterprises so as to improve effective supply and create new productivity by straightening out the supply side. To dissolve excess capacity, the Central Government, local government, authorities and enterprises must exercise strict control over incremental productive capacity. In particular, the local government is not supposed to increase investment blindly for local economic development or follow the suit simply because of huge potential in emerging industrials; instead, it should solve this problem at its source. The existing excess productive capacities may be dissolved by carrying out structural optimization or adjustment, promoting enterprise reorganization and M\&A, improving inventory warning mechanism and perform real-time monitoring over change in business inventories. Further solutions include: creating external demands and encouraging “go out” of China’s industrial capital to promote capacity output under the opportunity of the Belt and Road Initiative, accelerating reform of liberalization of production elements, breaking the government-led distribution mode of land and resources, giving full play to the regulating roles of market mechanism, and guiding allocation of capital and labor in all industrial sectors so as to dissolve excess capacity. As excess capacity is a systematic and long-term issue requiring both short-term administrative intervention and long-term governance according to the law, we need to improve the system of policy, laws and regulations for dissolution of excess capacity, and give full play to fiscal, financial and tax roles in the de-capacity process; accelerate consolidation, reorganization or bankruptcy of “zombie” enterprises or low-efficiency and inefficient assets, and make reasonable relocation of personnel and disposal of assets; actively guide upstream and downstream industrial organizations of the “zombie” enterprises to transform into high value added segments, or accept merging and reorganization of competitive industrial enterprises; and perfect the delisting mechanism of “zombie” enterprises to make adjustment and optimization of industrial structure, providing that the ecological equilibrium of these industrial organizations are maintained.

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Expand Effective Demands and Further Exploit

Firstly, we need to make endeavors to promote supply-side reform, but it does not necessarily mean the quit of demand management; instead, implementation of the supply-side reform requires appropriate enlargement of aggregate demands; the supply-side reform and the demand management should promote and cooperate with each other. Since 2015 , obstructions have emerged in economic growth measures through expansion of investment and net export volume. The stabilizing and rising consumer goods market is unable to drive industrial growth, but the explosion of various emerging industries due to implementation of the innovation-driven strategy has brought about new possibilities for consumption and investment; as a result, the scale effect was replaced by consumption upgrading and investment efficiency in promoting industrial growth. In addition, the implementation of various regional strategies has provided unprecedented demand space for consumption and trade. In the second quarter of 2016 , more effective demands were exploited to promote industrial growth.

Secondly, we need to expand and upgrade consumption. On the one hand, we should focus on development of new technologies and new products, encourage innovation of commercial forms, create new demands by means of new supply, and direct consumers towards intelligent, green and healthy consumption. As the “imitative” consumption period comes to an end, individualized and diversified demand has become the mainstream consumption pattern; therefore, in addition to effort in new commercial forms, we need to make efforts on improvement product quality and grade to accommodate consumers’ individualized demands of products, and push consumption towards some new industries. On the other hand, we need to expand consumers’ demands by virtue of inter-regional collaboration strategies. As China’s economy develops, the consumption potentialities in central and western regions have been exploited to some extent. The current inter-regional collaboration strategy plays an important role in promoting consumption in the underdeveloped central and western regions. The “Yangtze River Economic Belt” is a significant action of China’s combination of regional coordination and opening up in the new period. This is an unprecedented policy that links together the eastern, central and western regions, and also a solid step to promote construction of inland economic belts. The western region of China is covered by the Belt and Road Initiative while the developed eastern region will take active part in the strategy by economic ties with central and western regions, and will promote inter-regional interactions through market force. All these will further exploit the consumption potentialities in the central and western regions. Meanwhile, “people foremost” is core to the new-type urbanization; more and more production factors such as rural population, information, capital and technologies that are flooding into cities will generate huge aggregation effect and scale effect in these cities to achieve better development of production factors market, especially the labor market; besides, rural laborers will get better paid in cities and will also improve incomes of urban residents and promote upgrading of consumption structure. Therefore, urbanization is an important means to expand consumption and promote consumption upgrading while the construction of the “Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration” and “Yangtze River Economic Belt” provides infinite opportunity for new-type urbanization. The inter-regional connection of public services, social insurance system and transportation will become the main market for future urbanization. To stimulate consumption, we need to make the best of inter-regional collaborative strategy to drive urbanization in the central and western regions; besides, we need to take active measures to optimize consumption environment, standardize market competition to facilitate transition of market competition from quantitative expansion and price competition to quality and differentiation competition, promote service-oriented development of manufacturing enterprises, protect consumers’ rights and interests, accelerate infrastructure construction in the field of consumer goods, and implement the “broadband China” strategy.

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|International Industries in the First Half of 2016

In the first half of 2016 , the world economy was still subject to a deep adjustment period after the financial crisis. Global manufacturing PMI index dropped from $50.1 \%$ in April to $50 \%$ in May 2016 . The industrial economics of major economies recovered slowly in a zigzag way and unevenly in main countries and regions, indicated significant uncertainty in industrial economics operation. In general, developed economies recovered faster than emerging economies did.

A weak recovery continued in developed countries, such as European countries and the United States. The American economy operated fairly well. Due to trade and government investment in consumption that offset slump in consumption, the year-on-year growth rate of American economy was modified to rise by $1.1 \%$, higher than the desired value and the last modified value. The American people’s confidence in economy was enhanced by the constantly recovering labor market, the higher employment rate and lower price index. The bounce-off of consumer spending in the second quarter will further promote American GDP growth. In addition, the American industrial production improved markedly. The overall production index (seasonally adjusted) entered year-on-year positive growth status, and the manufacturing PMI has climbed above the threshold since March 2016 , which kept ascending on a monthly basis in the first half year and hit a new high in June, so its manufacturing industry was expected to flourish; due to external environment’s influence, however, the American trade volume remained in sharp fluctuations, for which there was still large space for improvement. The Eurozone economy recovered slowly, with first quarter’s GDP growth rate higher than was expected. The Eurozone industrial production also recovered persistently. The manufacturing PMI in June was the highest this year, which indicated a recovering trend of Eurozone industry. Currently, the inflation pressure was slightly alleviated and generally better than market expectation, and the inflation that had lasted for four months eventually carne to an end in June. Eurozone saw a good trend of employment as the unemployment rates kept descending; due to British referendum on departure from the EU and its external environment, however, the Eurozone trade was not as optimistic as expected. Japan suffered a slow economic recovery,

regardless of its first quarter’s GDP growth rate higher than was expected. Other data indicated that Japanese economy remains flat and that continual fluctuations occurred in its industrial output, e.g. PMI in March stayed below the threshold, inflation risk remained and import/export trade volume kept shrinking.

Among major emerging economies, Brazil’s economy and industrial production continued shrinking, but the shrinking amplitude slowed down dramatically; despite a slight decline in the second quarter, Brazil’s PMI remained below the threshold in the first half of 2016 , with a rising unemployment rate and inflation. In the first quarter, South Africa’s economic growth rate went down significantly; the growth rate of industrial production fluctuated drastically; though the PMI began recovering up to the threshold in March, there was still uncertainty in its economic recovery as its inflation deteriorated and foreign trade fluctuated obviously. In comparison, India’s economy recovered more steadily, regardless of its sluggish industrial growth. In the first quarter of 2016 , India’s GDP grew $7.95 \%$ year on year, higher than the average of all quarters in 2015 , indicating a better recovering trend of India’s economy. Since the year of 2016 , India’s PMI maintained above the threshold; the decreasing amplitude of its foreign trade kept going down and improving steadily. Due to the declining international oil price, Russia’s economy continued with the downturn; industrial production remained sluggish, regardless of a slightly positive turnabout. In the first half of 2016 , Russia’s PMI basically remained below the threshold; the unemployment rate went up somewhat, but the inflation went down markedly and foreign trade improved to some extent. It was clear that as compared with developed economies, major emerging economies were faced with a more difficult problem in economic recovery. In the first half of 2016 , the general economic situation of developed economies seemed much better than aforesaid emerging economies.

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|International Industries in the First Half of 2016

2016年上半年，世界经济仍处于金融危机后的深度调整期。全球制造业 PMI 指数从50.1%四月至50%2016 年 5 月。主要经济体产业经济回升缓慢，主要国家和地区呈现曲折态势，反映产业经济运行存在较大不确定性。总体而言，发达经济体的复苏速度快于新兴经济体。

## 有限元方法代写

tatistics-lab作为专业的留学生服务机构，多年来已为美国、英国、加拿大、澳洲等留学热门地的学生提供专业的学术服务，包括但不限于Essay代写，Assignment代写，Dissertation代写，Report代写，小组作业代写，Proposal代写，Paper代写，Presentation代写，计算机作业代写，论文修改和润色，网课代做，exam代考等等。写作范围涵盖高中，本科，研究生等海外留学全阶段，辐射金融，经济学，会计学，审计学，管理学等全球99%专业科目。写作团队既有专业英语母语作者，也有海外名校硕博留学生，每位写作老师都拥有过硬的语言能力，专业的学科背景和学术写作经验。我们承诺100%原创，100%专业，100%准时，100%满意。

## MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|ECON3057

statistics-lab™ 为您的留学生涯保驾护航 在代写产业经济学Industrial Economics方面已经树立了自己的口碑, 保证靠谱, 高质且原创的统计Statistics代写服务。我们的专家在代写产业经济学Industrial Economics代写方面经验极为丰富，各种代写产业经济学Industrial Economics相关的作业也就用不着说。

• Statistical Inference 统计推断
• Statistical Computing 统计计算
• (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
• Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
• Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Growth forecast and scenario analysis of industrial economics

With the current technological level, China’s industrial economics will be highly likely to maintain a slow-down growth rate from the second half of 2016 to the first half of 2017 , providing the current monetary and fiscal policies remain unchanged. According to the model prediction, the growth rate of China’s industrial economics will reduce to $5.7 \%$ at the end of 2016 and to $5.6 \%$ in June 2017 . Under the influence of moving holidays, obvious fluctuations will occur in industrial growth in January and February 2017 ; in remaining months of 2017 , the industrial economics will operate smoothly.

Benchmark: The quantities and qualities of labor force remain unchanged; the fixed asset investment maintain current development trend; the technical level remains unchanged; and the fiscal and monetary policies remain unchanged.

Scenario 1: The quantities and qualities of labor force remain unchanged; the fixed asset investment maintain current development trend; the technical level remains unchanged; and the fiscal and monetary policy strength is $20 \%$ lower than the current level.

Scenario 2: The quantities and qualities of labor force remain unchanged; the fixed asset investment maintain current development trend; the technical level remains unchanged; and the fiscal and monetary policy strength increases $20 \%$ over the current level.

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Qunhui Huang and Hangyan Zhang

With implementation of a series of policies including the supple-side structural reform, the national economy operated quite well and stabilized in slow growth and slow recovery in the first half of 2016 . However, the recovery seems not so optimistic in the pessimistic context of the international situation that might complicate and intensify China’s industrial economy and might lead to heavier downturn pressure on economic operation in the second half of 2016 as a number of contradictions and risks stand out. In this case, we need to seize the new normal opportunity for economic development, steady growth by taking effective measures against various risks and challenges, promote reform and transformation, break institutional barriers and combine long-term policies with short-term ones, macro policies with micro ones and supply management with demand management so as to pave the way for healthy development of China’s industrial economics.

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Focus on Steady Growth and Maintain Relative

Sharp fluctuations in economic growth are usually traceable back to sharp fluctuations in macro policies. As China’s industrial economics are currently “stabilizing in slow growth”, sharp fluctuations in macro policies should be avoided as taboos. In the first year of the “13th Five-Year Plan” $(2016-20)$, we need to maintain relative stability and continuity of macro policies, minimize frequent short-term macroeconomic control, deepen the concept of “interval control”, give play to the decisive roles of resource allocation in market and shift strategic focus to reform and adjustment of economic structure so that macro policies are authentic in promoting steady growth.

Firstly, we need to stabilize and avoid sharp fluctuations in real estate market. Such actions will be of great importance to economic growth and social stability. During the supply-side reform, de-stocking policies might be most intensive in real estate market; in just two dozen days since February 2016, five bombshell measures were issued by more than ten ministries and committees including the Central Bank of China and National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), almost one real estate policy being issued per week. In such a context, the government should be active to direct and guide the expectations and behaviors of commercial banks and social public by means of various policy tools to prevent against sharp fluctuations in real estate market and insure stable, healthy development of the real estate market.

Then, we need to continue with proactive fiscal policy and steady monetary policy. Under the pressure of continuous economic downturn, we will implement proactive fiscal policy for tax abatement and increase of social security expenditure, provide support for enterprises in technical transformation and innovation investment and give play to the leading role of governmental investment, guide funds to flow into fields that may generate higher investment efficiency, guarantee implementation of state-approved projects, increase expenditure in unemployment insurance and low-income population, maintain social stability, and create a macro environment to the benefit of structural adjustment, exercise steady monetary policy, duly cut down on interest and reserve and bring down enterprises’ financing cost pursuant to economic recovery; in addition, relevant authorities should delivery policy signals in time to market so as to stabilize expectation and confidence on the stock market.

Finally, we need to renovate the methods of macroeconomic regulation and control, strengthen interval control and opportunistic control, make the best of policy tools such as industry, investment and price as well as the fiscal and monetary policies, and take measures for structural reform and especially for supply-side structural reform to prevent all risks and create a favorable environment for economic development.

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Qunhui Huang and Hangyan Zhang

2016年上半年，随着供给侧结构性改革等一系列政策的落地，国民经济运行良好，稳中求进，缓慢回升。但在国际形势悲观的背景下，中国工业经济可能复杂化加剧，2016年下半年经济运行下行压力加大，诸多矛盾和风险凸显，复苏似乎并不乐观。在这种情况下，我们要抓住经济发展新常态机遇，稳增长，采取有效措施应对各种风险挑战，推进改革转型，打破体制机制障碍，实现长短期政策相结合，

## 有限元方法代写

tatistics-lab作为专业的留学生服务机构，多年来已为美国、英国、加拿大、澳洲等留学热门地的学生提供专业的学术服务，包括但不限于Essay代写，Assignment代写，Dissertation代写，Report代写，小组作业代写，Proposal代写，Paper代写，Presentation代写，计算机作业代写，论文修改和润色，网课代做，exam代考等等。写作范围涵盖高中，本科，研究生等海外留学全阶段，辐射金融，经济学，会计学，审计学，管理学等全球99%专业科目。写作团队既有专业英语母语作者，也有海外名校硕博留学生，每位写作老师都拥有过硬的语言能力，专业的学科背景和学术写作经验。我们承诺100%原创，100%专业，100%准时，100%满意。

## MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|ECON3400

statistics-lab™ 为您的留学生涯保驾护航 在代写产业经济学Industrial Economics方面已经树立了自己的口碑, 保证靠谱, 高质且原创的统计Statistics代写服务。我们的专家在代写产业经济学Industrial Economics代写方面经验极为丰富，各种代写产业经济学Industrial Economics相关的作业也就用不着说。

• Statistical Inference 统计推断
• Statistical Computing 统计计算
• (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
• Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
• Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Debt risks accumulated to pin down industrial operation

Local debt risk remains high. During economic deceleration, the fiscal revenue growth will slow down and the expenditure will rise moderately under the influence of economic fundamentals, enlarging the scale of deficit and debt. Furthermore, the fact that local governments may execute debt financing on various financing platforms to maintain goals of local economic and social development and to accelerate infrastructure construction will initiate a new mode to stimulate economic growth by governments’ leveraging investment. When the government no long provides any guarantee for these debts, some of the debts will be transferred by financing platforms to debts payable by the government; as a result, the debts payable by the local government will increase. According to the results of national debt audit at the end of 2015, RMB $1.9$ trillion debts payable by the government fell due in 2015 . Excessive debt ratio of the local government will put local government under heavy pressure to discharge debts and will also easily lead to crisis of local government debts; in addition, due to different rates of local economic growth and different debt burden of provinces, it is likely to incur local debt crisis. Excessive local government debts may also lead to risk of local government’s bankruptcy and place strict restrictions on local government’s further financing and on continuous investment in infrastructure construction and thus compromise the growth of industrial economics.

Potential risk in industrial sectors remains high. In May 2016, the debt-to-asset ratio of industrial enterprises above designated size was $56.8 \%, 0.6$ percentage point higher than December 2015 , and the leverage ratio reached up to $131 \%$, which increased the operating risk of industrial sectors. It is noted that the excessively high leverage ratio of Chinese enterprises was questioned as the leverage ratio of foreign enterprises maintained at around $70 \%$. In effect, the leverage ratio of Chinese enterprises has been extremely high for many years, for it was closely related to Chinese economic reality: (i) high saving rate that means relatively adequate supply of capitals in China, and (ii) high leverage that results from two realistic bases – relatively lagging development of China’s capital market and credit financing used as the main financing channel by China’s industrial sectors. However, these two bases are slowly collapsing as the consumer savings declines and the capital market expands and plays more financing functions. In recent years, the de-leverage ratio of industrial enterprises has paced up, reducing from $178 \%$ at the beginning of 1998 to $128 \%$ at the end of December 2015 . The current uptrend of leverage has no realistic base. Furthermore, the local government’s debt risks are constantly discharged. China as a whole suffers a very high debt ratio, so the increasing leverage will intensify the risk pressure.

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Prediction of Industrial Growth Trend

HP filtering method adopted in this report separates the growth trend of industrial value added year on year from cyclical factors to analyze roles of different factors in industrial value added. According to the results, the growth rate of industrial economics has slowed down since the year of 2010 ; the slowing growth rate has continued in the first half of 2016 but the decreasing amplitude was narrowing; and it is predicted that the industrial growth will highly likely hit the bottom in the second half of 2016
(1) Data source and interpolation of missing values
In this report, the value added year-on-year growth data of industries above designated size are used as observing indicators of industrial growth, with the samples ranging between January 2008 and June 2016 . Data are sourced from National Bureau of Statistics website. The industrial value added year-on-year growth rate is: (i) calculated by comparable prices, independent of price factors and free from price adjustment, and (ii) value added growth data of industries above designated size with January growth data missed, which needs interpolation. The traceability method is adopted in this report to interpolate data. Specific steps are as follows.
Firstly, the monthly year-on-year growth rate data and the monthly accumulative growth rate data of industrial value added as well as the monthly actual data in 2005 of industrial value added ${ }^{2}$ are obtained from National Bureau of Statistics website. Secondly, the monthly industrial value actually added in 2005 is used to figure out the monthly accumulative growth rates of industrial value added in 2005 . Thirdly, the monthly accumulative industrial value added in 2005 and the monthly accumulative growth rates of industrial value added in 2006 are used to calculate the monthly accumulative industrial value added in 2006 , and by analogy get the monthly accumulative industrial value added from 2007 to 2016 with January data missed. Fourthly, the monthly industrial value actually added in 2005 and the monthly year-on-year growth rates of industrial value added in 2006 are used to figure out the monthly industrial value actually added in 2006 , and by analogy get the monthly industrial value actually added from 2007 to 2016 with January data missed. Fifthly, the industrial values actually added in January from 2006 to 2013 are obtained by the accumulative number in February of industrial value added from 2006 to 2016 with January data missed minus the actual industrial value added in February from 2006 to 2016 . Finally, all monthly data calculated above are used to directly get the missing January data about the monthly year-on-year growth rates of industrial value added (Fig. 2.5).

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Trend components

In order to separate the long-term trend factors from the cyclical (irregular) factors of industrial growth and obtain estimation of unobservable potential factors, either the moving average method or the frequency domain estimation method may be used for the original data of single time sequence; the filtering method has a unique advantage, i.e. simple, intuitive and easy for implementation, and can also avoid the problem caused by production function method, i.e. whether the product function can be stable in the economic transition period, and the problem caused by variable structure decomposition method, i.e. whether there exists the Phillips curve of conventional form in China. Therefore, the HP filtering method is adopted in this section to predict the growth trend of industrial economics.

The HP filtering de-trending method may regard economic operation as a certain combination of potential growth and short-term fluctuations and use metrological technology to decompose the actually output sequence into trend components and cyclical components; the former means potential output while the latter means output gap or fluctuation. For growth rate of industrial operation, the time sequence $y_{t}$ consists of industrial operation trend $g_{t}$ and industrial operation fluctuation $c_{t}$, namely:
$$y_{t}=g_{t}+c_{t} \quad t=1, \ldots T$$
Hodrick and Prescott $(1980,1997)^{3}$ designed HP filter by following the logarithm data moving average method. The filter can obtain a smooth sequence $g_{t}$ from the time sequence $y_{t}$, i.e. trend component, and $g_{t}$ is the solution to the formula below:
$$\operatorname{Min}\left{\sum_{t=1}^{T}\left(y_{t}-g_{t}\right)^{2}+\lambda \sum_{t=1}^{T}\left[\left(g_{t}-g_{t-1}\right)\left(g_{t}-g_{t-2}\right)\right]\right}$$
where, $\sum_{t=1}^{T}\left(y_{t}-g_{t}\right)^{2}$ represents fluctuations, $\sum_{t=1}^{T}\left[\left(g_{t}-g_{t-1}\right)\left(g_{t}-g_{t-2}\right)\right]$ represents trend, and $\lambda$ is smooth parameter with a positive value used to adjust proportions of fluctuation and trend. Selection of the smooth parameter $\lambda$ is an important problem in the HP filtering method. Different smooth parameters mean different filters that determine different fluctuating modes and smoothness. According to Hodrick and Prescott $(1980,1997)$, the value of smooth parameter is taken as 100 in processing annual data, as 1600 in processing quarterly data and as 14,400 in processing monthly data. According to Ravn and Uhlig (2002), ${ }^{4}$ the smooth parameter should be 4th power of the observed data frequency, i.e. $6.25$ for annual data, 1600 for quarterly data and 129,600 for monthly data. In this report, the data used are growth rates of industrial value added from January 2010 to September 2015, sourced from National Bureau of Statistics website. It is important to note that the missing data on growth rates of industrial value added in January on National Bureau of Statistics website are supplemented by point linear interpolation in this report. Above two types of filters are selected for use in this report: $\lambda=14,400$ and $\lambda=129,600$.

（1）数据来源及缺失值插值

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Trend components

HP滤波去趋势法可以将经济运行视为潜在增长和短期波动的某种组合，利用计量技术将实际产出序列分解为趋势成分和周期成分；前者是潜在产出，后者是产出缺口或波动。工业运行增长率的时间序列是吨由产业运行趋势构成G吨和工业运行波动C吨，即：

\operatorname{Min}\left{\sum_{t=1}^{T}\left(y_{t}-g_{t}\right)^{2}+\lambda \sum_{t=1}^{ T}\left[\left(g_{t}-g_{t-1}\right)\left(g_{t}-g_{t-2}\right)\right]\right}\operatorname{Min}\left{\sum_{t=1}^{T}\left(y_{t}-g_{t}\right)^{2}+\lambda \sum_{t=1}^{ T}\left[\left(g_{t}-g_{t-1}\right)\left(g_{t}-g_{t-2}\right)\right]\right}

## 有限元方法代写

tatistics-lab作为专业的留学生服务机构，多年来已为美国、英国、加拿大、澳洲等留学热门地的学生提供专业的学术服务，包括但不限于Essay代写，Assignment代写，Dissertation代写，Report代写，小组作业代写，Proposal代写，Paper代写，Presentation代写，计算机作业代写，论文修改和润色，网课代做，exam代考等等。写作范围涵盖高中，本科，研究生等海外留学全阶段，辐射金融，经济学，会计学，审计学，管理学等全球99%专业科目。写作团队既有专业英语母语作者，也有海外名校硕博留学生，每位写作老师都拥有过硬的语言能力，专业的学科背景和学术写作经验。我们承诺100%原创，100%专业，100%准时，100%满意。

## MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|ECON 3516

statistics-lab™ 为您的留学生涯保驾护航 在代写产业经济学Industrial Economics方面已经树立了自己的口碑, 保证靠谱, 高质且原创的统计Statistics代写服务。我们的专家在代写产业经济学Industrial Economics代写方面经验极为丰富，各种代写产业经济学Industrial Economics相关的作业也就用不着说。

• Statistical Inference 统计推断
• Statistical Computing 统计计算
• (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
• Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
• Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Factors Influencing Cyclical Variation of Industrial Economics

The cyclical fluctuation of industrial economics in the future will be subject to factors such as global economic recovery and changes in both national and international demands, and will therefore lead to cyclical variations of industrial economics. Various uncertainties will likely result in drastic fluctuation in the future industrial economics.
(1) Sluggish global economy recovery and significant global trade slow down
Since the year of 2008 , the growth of global international trade slowed down under the influence of financial crisis. Despite various incentive policies that simulated economic growth in 2010 and 2011 , the zero or even negative growth trend remained unchanged (see Fig. 2.4).

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Challenges facing China’s industrial

In the international trade pattern, China’s industrial goods took up an increasingly high proportion. In 2003 , China’s industrial goods only took up $5.7 \%$ of global goods trade, but the proportion rose to $13.8 \%$ in 2015 , steadily increasing in more than ten years. Under the influence of shrinking global trade, China’s export growth rate slowed down and trade scale also withered, but China’s trade competitiveness witnessed a rising trend year by year; it is predicted that the rising trend of trade proportion will persist in $2016 .$

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|The effect of regional collaborative strategy

In March 2015, the Vision and Actions on Jointly Building the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21 st-Century Maritime Silk Road was issued jointly by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Commerce to promote construction of the Belt and Road Initiative. In April 2015, the Coordinated Development Program for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region was adopted at the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee. In October 2015, China’s 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020) on National Economic and Social Development, adopted at the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th Communist Party of China $(\mathrm{CPC})$ Central Committee, proposed formation of the lengthwise and crosswise economic axial belt along the coast, the river and the line guided by the Belt and Road Initiative construction, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development and Yangtze River Economic Belt construction and based on the overall strategy of regional development, and formation of city clusters including the northeast region, the central plains region, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River region, the Chengdu-Chongqing region and the central Shaanxi region through prior development of such city clusters as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta.

The new demand space for China’s industrial development provided by the regional coordinated development strategy along with its policy effect has brought indefinite opportunities for China’s industrial development in the next year. Firstly, the strategy has driven the balanced development in these regions. For a long time, Chinese government’s focus on coastal regions for economic development has create many economic hot spots in the eastern regions with most advanced economic development and most sufficient utilization of funds; in contrast, the central and western regions, especially the western regions, saw a rather low fund utilization rate and a narrow extent of opening up to the outside world due to their location, which laid severe restrictions on economic development but indicated potential industrial demands. The formation of city clusters has led to industrial cluster effect and creation of an industrial development pattern in which the growth poles of Beijing and Shanghai will drive economic growth in surrounding provinces, favorable for optimization of urban spatial layout, coordination among industrial sectors and expansion of environmental capacity and ecological space; in particular, the “Yangtze River Economic Belt” covering 11 provinces and cities has linked together the eastern, central and western regions to form a coordinated development belt that allows interaction and cooperation among the eastern and western regions and drives economic development in the western region, has fundamentally changed the location conditions of the western regions as many provinces along the Belt and Road Initiative are located in West China, has broadened the opening-up extent in China’s northwestern and southwestern regions and provided opportunities for these regions to carry out foreign trade and foreign investment activities and achieve leap-forward development.

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Factors Influencing Cyclical Variation of Industrial Economics

（一）全球经济复苏乏力，全球贸易增速明显放缓
2008年以来，受金融危机影响，全球国际贸易增速放缓。尽管 2010 年和 2011 年有各种刺激政策模拟经济增长，但零增长甚至负增长的趋势没有改变（见图 2.4）。

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|The effect of regional collaborative strategy

2015年3月，国家发展改革委、外交部、商务部联合印发《关于共建丝绸之路经济带和21世纪海上丝绸之路的愿景和行动》，推动建设“一带一路”倡议。2015年4月，中共中央政治局会议通过了《京津冀协同发展纲要》。2015年10月，中共十八届五中全会通过《国民经济和社会发展“十三五”规划（2016-2020年）》(C磷C)中央提出，以“一带一路”建设、京津冀协同发展、长江经济带建设为指导，立足总体战略，形成沿海、沿江、沿线纵横经济轴心带通过优先发展京津冀等城市群，形成东北地区、中原地区、长江中游地区、成渝地区、陕中地区等城市群。河北、长三角、珠三角。

## 有限元方法代写

tatistics-lab作为专业的留学生服务机构，多年来已为美国、英国、加拿大、澳洲等留学热门地的学生提供专业的学术服务，包括但不限于Essay代写，Assignment代写，Dissertation代写，Report代写，小组作业代写，Proposal代写，Paper代写，Presentation代写，计算机作业代写，论文修改和润色，网课代做，exam代考等等。写作范围涵盖高中，本科，研究生等海外留学全阶段，辐射金融，经济学，会计学，审计学，管理学等全球99%专业科目。写作团队既有专业英语母语作者，也有海外名校硕博留学生，每位写作老师都拥有过硬的语言能力，专业的学科背景和学术写作经验。我们承诺100%原创，100%专业，100%准时，100%满意。

## MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|ECON30003

statistics-lab™ 为您的留学生涯保驾护航 在代写产业经济学Industrial Economics方面已经树立了自己的口碑, 保证靠谱, 高质且原创的统计Statistics代写服务。我们的专家在代写产业经济学Industrial Economics代写方面经验极为丰富，各种代写产业经济学Industrial Economics相关的作业也就用不着说。

• Statistical Inference 统计推断
• Statistical Computing 统计计算
• (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
• Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
• Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|The declining fixed asset investment

The declining fixed asset investment in industrial sectors would inevitably lead to a slowing growth rate of capital stock and usher in a falling trend of industrial sectors. According to the new-classic growth theory, a country’s output depends on its capital stock, labor and total factor productivity; capital equals last year’s capital stock minus depreciation and plus investment; when the investment size is greater than depreciation, the capital stock increases annually; when the investment size is equal to depreciation, the capital stock sees a zero growth rate; when the investment size is smaller than depreciation, the capital stock suffers a negative growth rate; the greater the size of capital stock, the greater the size of depreciation; and a zero growth rate results inevitably when there is an unchanged investment size. Currently, however, the capital stock declines annually as the investment size shrinks annually; the capital stock moves rapidly towards a zero growth rate, even a negative one. If other production factors remain unchanged, there will be a positive correlation between capital stock and output, and a slowing or even a negative growth rate of capital stock will lead directly to a slowing or a negative growth rate of output. The slowing growth of capital stock is an inexorable law of economic development, so the slowdown of output also suggests an inevitable trend of economic development. As the fixed asset investment in industrial sectors slows down, the slowing growth rate of industrial output becomes more apparent.

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|National innovative strategy implemented

In 2015 , the “Mass Innovation and Mass Entrepreneurship” strategy was initiated by Chinese government to eliminate institutional constraints and provide support for startup of new enterprises, development of new products and expansion of new markets by all types of market entities through implementation of structural reform and institutional innovation. In the first half of 2015 , Chinese government also issued Made in China 2025 , the first ten-year action guiding document for manufacturing industry that specified nine strategic tasks for Chinese manufacturing industry, such as improving the innovation capacity, promoting in-depth integration of information and industrialization, enhancing quality brand and achieving breakthroughs in key fields. The development strategy to improve the innovation capacity of manufacturing industry underlined technology innovation and business model innovation in enterprises, with the former usually focused on breakthrough in a certain process while the latter combined advanced technology with advanced management and required enterprises to be always highly sensitive to market condition changes in order to maintain sustainable competitiveness. The integration of information and industrialization embodied services offered by manufacturers; it would be the only choice for the manufacturing industry to begin integrative development with the service industry in a certain stage; during upgrading and structural adjustment of the manufacturing industry, more enterprises opted to adopt “service outsourcing” in order to consolidate resources and make use of unique strengths; namely, enterprises tended to maintain sectors with core competitiveness and outsource such service activities as production, operation and even management usually carried out internally in the upper, middle and lower processes of production activities, thus providing development opportunities for some producer service enterprises; and the integration between producer service enterprises and industrial manufacturers helped improve the resources utilization efficiency and the industrial efficiency. A famous brand is the product of independent innovation capacity. Since the “11th Five-Year Plan” $(2006-2010)$, the famous brand development strategy has created a large number of famous brands with strong competitiveness; as a globally influential big power in the world, however, China is currently short of self-owned famous brands with international competitiveness; therefore, building quality brand is an effective measure for China to further its independent innovation capacity and protect intellectual property. The core of the “Mass Innovation and Mass Entrepreneurship” strategy and Made in China 2025 initiative still lies in innovation that has played a positive role in vitalizing market and starting up businesses. In the second half of 2016 , all economic sectors will issue and implement several policy measures supporting this core and specialized planning for subdivided fields to provide strong support for improvement of technological level.

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Global disruptive technologies

The advanced manufacturing technologies such as robot and 3D printing, the information technologies such as cloud computation, Internet of Things and big data, the new resource technologies such as renewable energy sources and advanced oil-gas exploration, the biotechnologies such as a new generation of genome, and the intelligent technologies such as auto-driving vehicles and knowledge-based office automation have exerted far-reaching influence on the world industry; in particular, these technologies have generated profound changes in the production mode, the development pattern, the industrial type and organizational form of the manufacturing industry, and pushed development of the manufacturing industry towards intelligent, service, collaborative, network and green manufacturing. Specifically, the new generation of information technology has permeated into all aspects of the manufacturing value chain, including changes in technology and manufacturing mode, and thus promoted reconstruction of the manufacturing value chain; the application of the Internet of Things has enabled manufacturers to achieve real-time acquisition of information and real-time monitoring of production process; the application of big data has enabled manufacturers to identify and solve invisible problems and predict the future development; the application of cloud computation has helped manufacturers predict market demands and consumers’ individual needs and achieved precise location of target consumer group, so it has been constantly putting right the strategic direction and altering the organizational and operational patterns of manufacturers; the combination of the Internet of Things and 3D printing has promoted establishment of new manufacturers that will clone things by reading information; the development of robot technology has made production lines become more automatic, standard and refined, and may further create “unmanned factory”, thus providing infinite opportunities for traditional manufacturing industry; and the steady development of advanced manufacturing technologies has resulted in effective integration of manufacturing information and intelligence. In this process, the renewable energy source technology has provided a solid foundation for green development of the manufacturing industry while the $3 \mathrm{D}$ printing technology that has saved more materials, improved the utilization rate of raw materials and made materials used more environment friendly when manufacturing products may push the manufacturing industry towards sustainable and healthy development. Currently, breakthroughs have been achieved in some disruptive technologies in China. In the future, with wide applications of these technologies, their economic potentialities will be released and become main driving force to improve industrial technological level.

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|National innovative strategy implemented

2015年，中国政府启动“大众创新、大众创业”战略，通过实施结构性改革，破除体制约束，支持各类市场主体创业、开发新产品、开拓新市场。和制度创新。2015年上半年，中国政府还发布了第一个制造业十年行动指导文件《中国制造2025》，明确了中国制造业提升创新能力、促进制造业深度融合等九大战略任务。信息化和产业化，提升质量品牌，实现重点领域突破。提高制造业创新能力的发展战略强调企业的技术创新和商业模式创新，前者通常侧重于某一过程的突破，而后者则将先进技术与先进管理相结合，要求企业始终对市场条件的变化，以保持可持续的竞争力。信息化与工业化融合体现了厂商提供的服务；制造业在一定阶段开始与服务业融合发展，将是唯一的选择；在制造业升级和结构调整的过程中，更多企业选择“服务外包”，整合资源，发挥独特优势；即企业倾向于保持具有核心竞争力的部门，将生产、经营甚至管理等通常在生产活动的上、中、下游环节内部进行的服务活动外包，为部分生产性服务业企业提供了发展机会。生产性服务业企业与工业制造企业的融合，有助于提高资源利用效率和产业效率。名牌是自主创新能力的产物。“十一五”以来 经营甚至管理通常在生产活动的上、中、下工序内部进行，为部分生产性服务业企业提供了发展机会；生产性服务业企业与工业制造企业的融合，有助于提高资源利用效率和产业效率。名牌是自主创新能力的产物。“十一五”以来 经营甚至管理通常在生产活动的上、中、下工序内部进行，为部分生产性服务业企业提供了发展机会；生产性服务业企业与工业制造企业的融合，有助于提高资源利用效率和产业效率。名牌是自主创新能力的产物。“十一五”以来 名牌是自主创新能力的产物。“十一五”以来 名牌是自主创新能力的产物。“十一五”以来(2006−2010)，名牌发展战略，造就了一大批具有较强竞争力的名牌；然而，作为具有全球影响力的世界大国，中国目前缺乏具有国际竞争力的自主知名品牌；因此，打造优质品牌是中国提升自主创新能力、保护知识产权的有效举措。“大众创新、大众创业”战略和“中国制造2025”的核心仍然在于创新，对盘活市场、创业创业起到了积极作用。2016年下半年，各经济部门将出台实施若干支持这一核心和细分领域专项规划的政策措施，为科技水平的提升提供有力支撑。

## 有限元方法代写

tatistics-lab作为专业的留学生服务机构，多年来已为美国、英国、加拿大、澳洲等留学热门地的学生提供专业的学术服务，包括但不限于Essay代写，Assignment代写，Dissertation代写，Report代写，小组作业代写，Proposal代写，Paper代写，Presentation代写，计算机作业代写，论文修改和润色，网课代做，exam代考等等。写作范围涵盖高中，本科，研究生等海外留学全阶段，辐射金融，经济学，会计学，审计学，管理学等全球99%专业科目。写作团队既有专业英语母语作者，也有海外名校硕博留学生，每位写作老师都拥有过硬的语言能力，专业的学科背景和学术写作经验。我们承诺100%原创，100%专业，100%准时，100%满意。

## MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|ECON 7001

statistics-lab™ 为您的留学生涯保驾护航 在代写产业经济学Industrial Economics方面已经树立了自己的口碑, 保证靠谱, 高质且原创的统计Statistics代写服务。我们的专家在代写产业经济学Industrial Economics代写方面经验极为丰富，各种代写产业经济学Industrial Economics相关的作业也就用不着说。

• Statistical Inference 统计推断
• Statistical Computing 统计计算
• (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
• Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
• Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Analysis of prosperity index in the first half of 2016

It is indicated by the leading index and concordance index that the first half of 2016 greeted a slow pickup trend of prosperity from a low level. In January and February 2016 , the prosperity of leading index fell into the range of negative values under the influence of sluggish prosperity in 2015 but assumed a constant pickup trend, and it further recovered above zero in March 2016 . The concordance index presented a trend ascending year over year and descending month over month. In Fig. 2.1, the prosperity of concordance index ascended for a time to about $0.4$ of that in January and descended afterwards to almost zero, but it picked up in March 2016, generally higher than the prosperity in the same period last year, regardless of a descending

trend that took place later. The lagging index (mainly including export information and price information) indicated some risks in such growth. In 2016, exclusive of March and June, the prosperity of lagging index remained below zero with a greater degree of fluctuation. For some time in the future, there will be increasing uncertainties about growth of industrial economics.

According to prosperity indicators, (1) the fringe market improved greatly; the PMI of American manufacturing industry bounced back over the threshold; the PMI of Eurozone manufacturing industry maintained above the threshold and assumed an uptrend. The economic situation of developed countries would eventually have effect on China’s export trade; despite a substantial decline in China’s general trade export volume in the first quarter of 2016 , the export volume grew $20 \%$ year on year in March; but there had been no substantial growth in the export volume of general trade as the domestic market of China remained in adjustment; (2) the real estate market witnessed brisk trades. In the first half of 2016 , the area sold of real estate grew rapidly. From January to June 2016, it reached $643.02$ million square meters, growing $27.9 \%$ year on year; the sales of real estate amounted to RMB $4.8682$ trillion, growing $42.1 \%$. The investment scale of real estate development maintained a moderate-rapid rate of growth; from January to June 2016, it grew $6.1 \%$ year on year, indicating a limited role of real estate market in driving industrial growth; (3) there was a slowdown in growth of fixed asset investment and a notable decline in industrial fixed asset investment. From January to June 2016 , the fixed asset investment in China amounted to RMB $25.836$ trillion (excluding peasant households), with nominal year-on-year growth of $9 \%$ (it was actually $11 \%$ after adjusting for inflation). The investment in the secondary industry amounted to RMB $10.1702$ trillion, growing $4.4 \%, 16.7$ and $7.7$ percentage points lower than the primary industry the tertiary industry respectively, where the industrial investment amounted to RMB $9.9594$ trillion, growing $4.2 \%$ year on year, and the manufacturing investment amounted to RMB $8.2261$ trillion, growing $3.3 \%$ only; (4) under the influence of overcapacity and inventory adjustment, the outputs of industrial products saw an uneven year-on-year growth, e.g. the outputs of cast iron, crude steel and coke kept sagging while those of ethylene and aluminum products kept growing; and (5) the money supply M1 grew rapidly while M2 slowed down. In response to the downturn risks of industrial economics, Chinese government exercised proactive monetary policy, resulting in a significant growth in money supply; nevertheless, the growth rate of money supply M2 tended to slow down due to the risk of the rising non-performing loan ratio (Table 2.1).

The steady rise in leading indexes predicted a quarter-long slow growth of the industrial economics for some time in the future, but the industrial economics would be under big downward pressure as it remained in growing pains of rebalance. Specifically, firstly, the ex-factory price index of industrial products remained within a negative range, the industrial overcapacity failed to improve in real sense, and the main industrial products trading market was not as active as expected; secondly, this round of growth of industrial economics was still dependent heavily on pickup of real estate market, and there would be limited space for growth in the future as the real estate market entered the period of adjustment; thirdly, the fixed asset investment remained a main force in supporting this round of slow growth of industrial economics, and the main sectors that could drive growth of fixed asset investment were infrastructure investment and real estate market investment while the manufacturing fixed asset investment remained at a low level; and fourthly, the loose monetary policy played a positive role in promoting pickup of real estate market, but the exit of the loose monetary policy would inevitably restrain the growing trend of the real estate market and further compromise demands of industrial products. Generally, this round of industrial economics growth as a continuity of the old investment-driven development pattern failed to result in any new growth points. Considering the transition of China’s economic development from the industry-driven pattem to the service-driven pattern, there would be an irresistible trend of rapid growth of the service industry and slowdown of industrial growth.

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Factors Influencing the Trend Variation of Industrial Economics

The decline of fixed asset investment in industrial sectors would inevitably lead to a slowing growth rate of capital stock and usher in a falling trend of industrial sectors. The innovative development strategy and global technological revolution initiated by Chinese Government would be a strong support for growth of industrial economics.
(1) Lower and lower investment return of industrial enterprises and continuous downsizing of the fixed asset investment

Since reform and opening up in 1979 , the profit scale of Chinese industrial sectors had expanded constantly; especially since the year of 2002 , it grew at a rate up to $20 \%$ and made it possible for industrial investment return to maintain a high level. Since the year of 2011 , however, the profit growth rate of industrial sectors slowed down even to a negative rate. As the profit growth rate remained low, the

investment return receded gradually. Bai Chong’en and Zhang Qiong (2014) ${ }^{1}$ pointed out that since the year 2011 China’s return on invested capital presented a constantly declining trend, i.e. $21.1,16.6$ and $14.7 \%$ respectively from 2011 to 2013. The return on invested capital of industrial sectors stayed basically consistent with that of the whole society. The former’s decline would result in transfer of investment into other industries and into overseas market. Data showed that from 2005 to 2013 , the fixed asset investment of industrial sectors took up all the time over $40 \%$ of the total fixed assets investment; however, since the year of 2014 , the fixed asset fell back to $39.9 \%$ and presented a trend of continuous decline (Fig. 2.2).

The growth of private fixed asset investment ushered in this round of the declining trend in fixed asset investment. Over years, the growth of private fixed asset investment in the secondary industry has all the time outnumbered the growth of total fixed asset investment and thus become the main force of fixed asset investment in the secondary industry. In March 2016 , however, the private fixed asset investment in the secondary industry began to present a declining trend and became a leading force to bring down the growth of fixed asset investment (Fig. 2.3).

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Factors Influencing the Trend Variation of Industrial Economics

（一）工业企业投资回报率越来越低，固定资产投资规模不断缩小

1979年改革开放以来，中国工业部门利润规模不断扩大；尤其是2002年以来，增长速度高达20%使工业投资回报率保持较高水平。但2011年以来，工业部门利润增速放缓，甚至出现负增长。由于利润增长率保持低位，

## 有限元方法代写

tatistics-lab作为专业的留学生服务机构，多年来已为美国、英国、加拿大、澳洲等留学热门地的学生提供专业的学术服务，包括但不限于Essay代写，Assignment代写，Dissertation代写，Report代写，小组作业代写，Proposal代写，Paper代写，Presentation代写，计算机作业代写，论文修改和润色，网课代做，exam代考等等。写作范围涵盖高中，本科，研究生等海外留学全阶段，辐射金融，经济学，会计学，审计学，管理学等全球99%专业科目。写作团队既有专业英语母语作者，也有海外名校硕博留学生，每位写作老师都拥有过硬的语言能力，专业的学科背景和学术写作经验。我们承诺100%原创，100%专业，100%准时，100%满意。

## MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|ECF5040

statistics-lab™ 为您的留学生涯保驾护航 在代写产业经济学Industrial Economics方面已经树立了自己的口碑, 保证靠谱, 高质且原创的统计Statistics代写服务。我们的专家在代写产业经济学Industrial Economics代写方面经验极为丰富，各种代写产业经济学Industrial Economics相关的作业也就用不着说。

• Statistical Inference 统计推断
• Statistical Computing 统计计算
• (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
• Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
• Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
• Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Analysis of the Industrial Economics Prosperity in 2016

To get an intuitive understanding of the industrial economics development, this report has synthesized the available original data including industrial economics development to derive a composite indicator that reflects the situation of industrial economics, i.e. the composite index. According to the composite index, the industrial economics grew significantly in the first quarter of 2016 , unlike the trend that remained lower last year. According to the prosperity index, the first quarter of 2016 witnessed a significant rise in prosperity index of industrial economics as compared to the previous year, but the lagging index indicates that this high trend seems feeble and the leading index indicates that this trend will continue.
(1) Formation of the composite index
Processing of original data: the composite index needs to eliminate the “redundant” information (or information irrelative to our purpose) from the original data. To eliminate this “redundant” information, it can be differentiated from original data. Firstly, the original data include high-frequency and low-frequency data, and the former contains daily, weekly and monthly data. What is needed in this report is the monthly data, so daily and weekly data are “redundant” to us and all data are necessarily subject to de-frequency processing. Secondly, the original data contain output data and value quantity data, and the value quantity data may lead to incomparability inside data sequence under the influence of changing prices; therefore, the incomparable data caused by changing prices need to be removed in order to accurately describe the trend of industrial economics development. Thirdly, it is the influence of movable holiday effect. Unlike the statistical data that are calculated in accordance with the solar calendar, the traditional Chinese Spring is always celebrated in accordance with the lunar calendar, so the Spring Festival usually takes place in different solar months. As a public holiday in China, the Spring Festival has strong holiday effects: suspended production, additional leisure time, sharp rise in consumption, and abnormality in all economic activities. As a result, some “redundant” information such as “holiday effect” is included in monthly data. When the data are relevant to growth rate, the above three kinds of information are redundant information that needs to be removed in this report. Thanks to coincidence between seasonal information and holiday information, however, the movable holiday information is usually eliminated earlier than is the seasonable information. In this report, the three kinds of redundant information will be eliminated by de-frequency adjustment, price adjustment and movable holiday adjustment methods.

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Correlation analysis is a statistical

Correlation analysis is a statistical method commonly used in research on closeness among various variables and in research on the degree of correlation between two or more variables and the mutual relation of phenomena with certain functions. The correlative relation means the stochastic relation of change in two phenomena values that are not completely determined, or a kind of dependence relation that is not yet completely determined, often abbreviated as correlative relation, which is the object of study in correlation analysis. The closeness of correlative relation describes the degree of association among variables through calculation of correlation coefficient, i.e. the correlation coefficient is the statistical magnitude that describes the degree and direction of linear relation between two variables, usually expressed as $r$, without unit, value of which ranges between $-1$ and $+1$. The closer to $r$ the absolute value is, the greater the degree of linear correlation between two variables will be. If $r$ is greater than 0 , it is a positive correlation and variable $\mathrm{Y}$ will increase as variable $\mathrm{X}$ increases; if $\mathrm{r}$ is less than 0 , it is a negative correlation and variable $\mathrm{Y}$ will decrease as variable $\mathrm{x}$ increases.
Based on the principle of correlation coefficient, the cross correlation coefficient method has broken the sequence of two variables’ correlation coefficient arranged by time limit according to time variable. This sequence may give the mutual relation between two variables at different times; accordingly, the maximum cross correlation coefficient is used to determine whether this index is a leading index, concordance index or a lagging index.

Synthesis of index: the composite index may be coded in different ways, e.g. the composite index method of the US Department of Commerce, the composite index method introduced by the Economic Planning Agency of Japan, and the composite index method of the UN Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The Japanese Economic Planning Agency’s composite index method agrees with the US Department of Commerce in basic idea but differs slightly in method while the OECD’s composite index method is developed specific to the leading composite index and seems simpler than the former two methods. In this report, the US Department of Commerce’s composite index method is adopted as an internationally common method. It is basically used in the literature of Chinese development of prosperity index.

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Determine and standardize the symmetrical change rate of index

Step 1: Determine and standardize the symmetrical change rate of index
(i) Let index $Y_{i j t}$ be the value of $j$ index in $i$ index group at $t$ time, where $i=1,2,3$, representing the leading, concordance and lagging index groups respectively, $j=1,2,3, \ldots, k_{i}$, representing indexes in three groups, and $k_{i}$ means the number of indexes in $i$ index group. First determine symmetrical change $C_{i j i t}$ of $Y_{i j t}$, where $t=2,3, \ldots, n$.

(ii) To prevent greatly variable indexes from producing significant impact on composite index, the symmetrical change rate $C_{i j t}$ of each index is standardized to make its average absolute value equal to 1 . First determine the normalized factor $A_{i j}$ and then standardize $C_{i j t}$ with $A_{i j}$ to obtain standardized change rate $S_{i j t}$, where $t=2,3, \ldots, n$.
Step 2: Determine standardized average change rate of each index group
(i) Determine average change rates of the leading index, concordance index and lagging index group, with $R_{i, t}$ of $i=1,2,3$ and $t=2,3$, $\ldots, n$.

Where $W_{i j}$ is the weight of $j$ index in $i$ index group. The equal weight is usually used to set weight in composite index. The scoring system may be used to determine weight so that each index is given a score according to its economic importance, statistical adequacy, historical concordance and publishing timeliness, and then each index is weighted. If this step is not followed, the weight will be not as desirable as equal weight due to its strong arbitrariness and subjectivity. In order to keep consistent the numerical values of composite index in three index group, the standardized average change rates of all three index groups need to be calculated by dividing the average change rates of all index groups by normalized factor among index groups.
(ii) Work out the normalized factor $F_{i}$, where $i=1,2,3$.
(iii) Figure out the standardized average change rate $V_{i, t}$, where $t=2,3$, $\ldots, n$.
Step 3: Calculate composite index
(i) Let $I_{i}(1)=100$, then $i=1,2,3$ and $t=2,3, \ldots, n$.
(ii) Synthesize a composite index with 100 as benchmark year, where $I_{i}$ is the average value of $I_{i, t}$ in the benchmark year.

Follow above step in aggregating and synthesizing indexes of three index groups, and then figure out the composite index of the leading index, concordance index and lagging index.

（一）综合指数的形成

## 经济代写|产业经济学代写Industrial Economics代考|Determine and standardize the symmetrical change rate of index

(i) 让指数是一世j吨成为j索引一世索引组在吨时间，地点一世=1,2,3，分别代表领先、一致和落后指数组，j=1,2,3,…,ķ一世，代表三组中的索引，以及ķ一世表示索引的数量一世指数组。首先确定对称变化C一世j一世吨的是一世j吨， 在哪里吨=2,3,…,n.

(ii) 为防止大变动指数对综合指数产生重大影响，对称变化率C一世j吨对每个指标进行标准化，使其平均绝对值等于 1 。首先确定归一化因子一个一世j然后标准化C一世j吨和一个一世j获得标准化的变化率小号一世j吨， 在哪里吨=2,3,…,n.

(i) 确定领先指数、一致性指数和滞后指数组的平均变化率，用R一世,吨的一世=1,2,3和吨=2,3, …,n.

(ii) 计算出归一化因子F一世， 在哪里一世=1,2,3.
(iii) 计算出标准化的平均变化率在一世,吨， 在哪里吨=2,3, …,n.

(i) 让我一世(1)=100， 然后一世=1,2,3和吨=2,3,…,n.
(ii) 以 100 为基准年合成一个综合指数，其中我一世是平均值我一世,吨在基准年。

## 有限元方法代写

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## MATLAB代写

MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。