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宏观经济学，对国家或地区经济整体行为的研究。它关注的是了解整个经济的事件，如商品和服务的生产总量、失业水平和价格的一般行为。
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我们提供的宏观经济学Macroeconomics及其相关学科的代写，服务范围广, 其中包括但不限于:
- Statistical Inference 统计推断
- Statistical Computing 统计计算
- Advanced Probability Theory 高等概率论
- Advanced Mathematical Statistics 高等数理统计学
- (Generalized) Linear Models 广义线性模型
- Statistical Machine Learning 统计机器学习
- Longitudinal Data Analysis 纵向数据分析
- Foundations of Data Science 数据科学基础
经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Pump-Priming Debates in America
It is now apparent that Tinbergen built a strong case for an active economic policy, although he disputed some forms of interventionism, in particular on wages. His theoretical macro-dynamic models as well as his econometric works were guided by the search for useful economic policies that would ensure the stability of the system and the damping out of fluctuations, something that was present since he wrote his thesis in 1929. In the previous section, we saw that he also looked for policies that would help the economy obtain higher levels of production and employment. Tinbergen’s position in Europe ensured a large diffusion of his ideas which were endorsed by many other European econometricians.
The situation in the USA was quite different; although there were many American econometricians, led in particular by Charles Roos at the Cowles Commission, discussions of macro-dynamic models and fiscal policy were scarce during their winter meetings. Most economists remained skeptical of the possibilities offered by public intervention, especially financed by a deficit, viewed as the source of important distorsions. Few of them participated actively in the policies put in place by the New Deal; although Roos became the Research Director of the National Recovery Administration this experience seemed at odds with his models based on the intertemporal maximization of profits ${ }^8$; the NRA itself was disbanded in 1935, after Roosevelt’s first term saw the rise of a coalition of businessmen and conservatives that was largely successful in convincing the Supreme Court to repel many laws of the first New Deal. Roosevelt himself was not in favor of continuing the de facto deficit that characterized his first term (Barber, 1996: 100, 102 ff.) and his second term began with a victory of the “budget-balancers” in the public finance battle, leading to an almost balanced budget in 1937.
This context dramatically changed in the autumn of 1937, when a new recession led in a few months to a $40 \%$ drop in production and a rise of unemployment from $14 \%$ to $19 \%$. While the autumn of 1929 remains today in memories as the beginning of the Great Depression, the crisis in the autumn of 1937 was an even bigger shock for the economists of the time, an “intellectually traumatic” episode (Salant, 1976: 15) in particular because the economy was still far from its full employment level (Barber, 1996: 104-105). It was this crisis and the widely diverging interpretations of its causes that shifted the tide of economists (reinforced by the growing influx of economists from central Europe), and which created the conditions for a return of massive deficits in the span of a few months. ${ }^9$ Hansen became the unofficial leader of the New Economics in America and carried with him the graduate students of Harvard’s economic department. ${ }^{10}$ It was only at this point that a macro-dynamic model integrating Keynesian ingredients was specifically built in the USA to explain and describe the consequences of the changes in fiscal policy during the past few years, with the aim to justify the perpetuation of a high level of expenditures.
Following this shift in attitudes, we find that an important point of contention among economists concerned the effects of budgetary policies: conservative economists defended at best temporary policies that would prime the pump of new investment and foster favorable conditions for profits (necessary for their version of pump-priming to work), before stepping aside to let the private sector work its way out of the depression. But this vision was put in question by the 1937 crisis, and the model developed by Hansen and Samuelson sought precisely to show why a single impulse of expenditures soon followed by the pulling back of the government would not be sufficient. It may seem counterintuitive that Hansen and Samuelson would reject a policy of pump-priming, which is why it is important to insert their opinion in the American debate on this question. We see that Tinbergen had yet another position from the point of view of this debate, because he had justified the possibility of pump-priming with the idea that the coordination between private parties could fail to establish a high equilibrium which could be obtained only after some help from the government and not from the business world.
经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|The Role of Public Expenditures
Samuelson’s discussion of the interaction between the accelerator and the multiplier was firmly rooted in the previous work of the econometricians. We have already underlined that he viewed his model as “so simple that it provides a useful introduction to the mathematical theory of [Tinbergen’s] work” (Samuelson, 1939a: 78). The second article, published in the Journal of Political Economy, also opened with a discussion of the contributions to the accelerator and the multiplier, their unification by Harrod, Haberler and Hansen, and a presentation of Frisch’s clarifications of the role of depreciation and the necessity of having a determinate model (Samuelson, 1939b: 785, 789). Although the model was very simple, it was still uncommon to find determinate systems relying on dynamic equations and Samuelson thus participated in the first movement of the “macrodynamist” econometricians, which had begun in the early 1930s. The fact that he used it explicitly to discuss the effect of an economic policy reinforces this link.
His model was in part a reaction against the idea, perhaps too simplistic, of the multiplier and the light it shed on government spending, which obscured the “subsidiary relations and processes” (Samuelson, 1939a: 75), in particular the dynamic effects of government spending, with the aim to show that an increase of public expenditures could be the cause of fluctuations in investment. ${ }^{27}$ Samuelson eased into the model by presenting several numerical computations, tables and decomposition by component (consumption, investment and government expenditures) of the trajectory of the economy for different values of the propensity to consume and what he called the “relation,” the name given to the accelerator by Harrod. Pointing out the variety of movements that could arise from this model, he then proceeded to build a formal, determinate system to study its qualitative behavior and showcase the interest of mathematical methods. ${ }^{28}$ The system is made up of two behavioral equations and an equilibrium condition ${ }^{29}$ :
$$
\begin{gathered}
Y_t=g_t+C_t+I_t, \
C_t=\alpha Y_{t-1}, \
I_t=\beta\left[C_t-C_{t-1}\right] .
\end{gathered}
$$
Inserting 7.7 in 7.8 and the resulting equation in 7.6 , we obtain a difference equation in $Y$ with two lags:
$$
Y_t=g_t+\alpha[1+\beta] Y_{t-1}-\alpha \beta Y_{t-2},
$$
so that the knowledge of income in two periods would allow the derivation of the subsequent trajectory of the system.
宏观经济学代考
经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|Pump-Priming Debates in America
现在很明显，丁伯根为积极的经济政策建立了强有力的理由，尽管他对某些形式的干预主义提出异议，尤其是在工资方面。他的理论宏观动力学模型以及他的计量经济学著作都以寻找有用的经济政策为指导，这些政策将确保系统的稳定性和波动的抑制，这是他在 1929 年撰写论文以来就存在的东西。上一节，我们看到他还寻找有助于经济获得更高水平生产和就业的政策。丁伯根在欧洲的地位确保了他的思想得到广泛传播，并得到许多其他欧洲计量经济学家的认可。
美国的情况完全不同。尽管有许多美国计量经济学家，尤其是考尔斯委员会的查尔斯·鲁斯 (Charles Roos) 为首，但他们在冬季会议上很少讨论宏观动态模型和财政政策。大多数经济学家仍然对公共干预所提供的可能性持怀疑态度，尤其是在财政赤字的情况下，被视为严重扭曲的根源。他们中很少有人积极参与新政制定的政策；尽管罗斯成为国家复兴管理局的研究主任，但这段经历似乎与他基于跨期利润最大化的模型不一致8; NRA 本身于 1935 年解散，当时罗斯福的第一个任期见证了商人和保守派联盟的崛起，该联盟在很大程度上成功说服最高法院驳回了第一次新政的许多法律。罗斯福本人不赞成延续他第一个任期的实际赤字 (Barber, 1996: 100, 102 ff.)，他的第二个任期以“预算平衡者”在公共财政斗争中的胜利开始，领导到 1937 年几乎达到平衡的预算。
这种情况在 1937 年秋天发生了巨大变化，新的经济衰退在几个月内导致了40%生产下降和失业率上升14%到19%. 虽然 1929 年秋天作为大萧条的开始在今天的记忆中仍然存在，但 1937 年秋天的危机对当时的经济学家来说是一个更大的冲击，这是一个“智力创伤”事件（Salant，1976：15）特别是因为经济仍远未达到充分就业水平（Barber，1996：104-105）。正是这场危机以及对其原因的广泛分歧的解释改变了经济学家的潮流（中欧经济学家的不断涌入加强了这一趋势），并为几个月内重新出现大规模赤字创造了条件。9汉森成为美国新经济学的非官方领袖，并带走了哈佛经济系的研究生。10正是在这一点上，美国专门建立了一个融合凯恩斯主义成分的宏观动态模型来解释和描述过去几年财政政策变化的后果，目的是证明高水平的长期存在是合理的。支出。
随着这种态度的转变，我们发现经济学家之间的一个重要争论点与预算政策的影响有关：保守派经济学家最多为临时政策辩护，这些政策将启动新投资并为利润创造有利条件（他们的版本是必要的）泵启动工作），然后让私营部门努力摆脱萧条。但这一愿景因 1937 年的危机而受到质疑，而汉森和萨缪尔森开发的模型恰恰试图说明为什么紧接着政府撤回的单一支出冲动是不够的。汉森和萨缪尔森拒绝刺激政策似乎有悖常理，这就是为什么在美国关于这个问题的辩论中加入他们的观点很重要。
经济代写|宏观经济学代写Macroeconomics代考|The Role of Public Expenditures
萨缪尔森关于加速器和乘数之间相互作用的讨论牢牢植根于计量经济学家的先前工作。我们已经强调过， 他认为自己的模型“非常简单，可以为 [Tinbergen] 工作的数学理论提供有用的介绍” (Samuelson， 1939a：78) 。第二篇文章发表在政治经济学杂志上，开篇也讨论了对加速器和乘数的贡献，Harrod、 Haberler 和 Hansen 对它们的统一，并介绍了 Frisch 对折旧作用和必要性的澄清有一个确定的模型 (Samuelson, 1939b: 785，789)。虽然模型非常简单，依赖于动态方程的确定系统仍然很少见，萨缪尔森 因此参加了 1930 年代初开始的”宏观动力学”计量经济学家的第一次运动。他明确地使用它来讨论经济政 策的影响这一事实加强了这种联系。
他的模型在一定程度上是对乘数及其对政府支出的影响的想法的一种反应，这种想法可能过于简单，这掩 盖了“辅助关系和过程” (Samuelson，1939a: 75)，特别是政府支出，目的是表明公共支出的增加可能 是投资波动的原因。 27 萨缪尔森通过提供几个数值计算、表格和按经济轨迹的组成部分（消费、投资和政 府支出）分解模型，针对不同的消费倾向值和他所谓的“关系”，给出的名称哈罗德的加速器。指出这个模 型可能产生的各种运动，然后他着手建立一个正式的、确定的系统来研究它的定性行为并展示数学方法的 兴趣。 ${ }^{28}$ 该系统由两个行为方程和一个平衡条件组成 ${ }^{29}$ :
$$
Y_t=g_t+C_t+I_t, C_t=\alpha Y_{t-1}, I_t=\beta\left[C_t-C_{t-1}\right]
$$
在 7.8 中揷入 7.7 并在 7.6 中揷入所得方程，我们得到一个差分方程 $Y$ 有两个滞后:
$$
Y_t=g_t+\alpha[1+\beta] Y_{t-1}-\alpha \beta Y_{t-2},
$$
因此，两个时期的收入知识将允许推导出系统的后续轨迹。
统计代写请认准statistics-lab™. statistics-lab™为您的留学生涯保驾护航。
金融工程代写
金融工程是使用数学技术来解决金融问题。金融工程使用计算机科学、统计学、经济学和应用数学领域的工具和知识来解决当前的金融问题，以及设计新的和创新的金融产品。
非参数统计代写
非参数统计指的是一种统计方法，其中不假设数据来自于由少数参数决定的规定模型；这种模型的例子包括正态分布模型和线性回归模型。
广义线性模型代考
广义线性模型（GLM）归属统计学领域，是一种应用灵活的线性回归模型。该模型允许因变量的偏差分布有除了正态分布之外的其它分布。
术语 广义线性模型（GLM）通常是指给定连续和/或分类预测因素的连续响应变量的常规线性回归模型。它包括多元线性回归，以及方差分析和方差分析（仅含固定效应）。
有限元方法代写
有限元方法（FEM）是一种流行的方法，用于数值解决工程和数学建模中出现的微分方程。典型的问题领域包括结构分析、传热、流体流动、质量运输和电磁势等传统领域。
有限元是一种通用的数值方法，用于解决两个或三个空间变量的偏微分方程（即一些边界值问题）。为了解决一个问题，有限元将一个大系统细分为更小、更简单的部分，称为有限元。这是通过在空间维度上的特定空间离散化来实现的，它是通过构建对象的网格来实现的：用于求解的数值域，它有有限数量的点。边界值问题的有限元方法表述最终导致一个代数方程组。该方法在域上对未知函数进行逼近。[1] 然后将模拟这些有限元的简单方程组合成一个更大的方程系统，以模拟整个问题。然后，有限元通过变化微积分使相关的误差函数最小化来逼近一个解决方案。
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随机分析代写
随机微积分是数学的一个分支，对随机过程进行操作。它允许为随机过程的积分定义一个关于随机过程的一致的积分理论。这个领域是由日本数学家伊藤清在第二次世界大战期间创建并开始的。
时间序列分析代写
随机过程，是依赖于参数的一组随机变量的全体，参数通常是时间。 随机变量是随机现象的数量表现，其时间序列是一组按照时间发生先后顺序进行排列的数据点序列。通常一组时间序列的时间间隔为一恒定值（如1秒，5分钟，12小时，7天，1年），因此时间序列可以作为离散时间数据进行分析处理。研究时间序列数据的意义在于现实中，往往需要研究某个事物其随时间发展变化的规律。这就需要通过研究该事物过去发展的历史记录，以得到其自身发展的规律。
回归分析代写
多元回归分析渐进（Multiple Regression Analysis Asymptotics）属于计量经济学领域，主要是一种数学上的统计分析方法，可以分析复杂情况下各影响因素的数学关系，在自然科学、社会和经济学等多个领域内应用广泛。
MATLAB代写
MATLAB 是一种用于技术计算的高性能语言。它将计算、可视化和编程集成在一个易于使用的环境中，其中问题和解决方案以熟悉的数学符号表示。典型用途包括：数学和计算算法开发建模、仿真和原型制作数据分析、探索和可视化科学和工程图形应用程序开发，包括图形用户界面构建MATLAB 是一个交互式系统，其基本数据元素是一个不需要维度的数组。这使您可以解决许多技术计算问题，尤其是那些具有矩阵和向量公式的问题，而只需用 C 或 Fortran 等标量非交互式语言编写程序所需的时间的一小部分。MATLAB 名称代表矩阵实验室。MATLAB 最初的编写目的是提供对由 LINPACK 和 EISPACK 项目开发的矩阵软件的轻松访问，这两个项目共同代表了矩阵计算软件的最新技术。MATLAB 经过多年的发展，得到了许多用户的投入。在大学环境中，它是数学、工程和科学入门和高级课程的标准教学工具。在工业领域，MATLAB 是高效研究、开发和分析的首选工具。MATLAB 具有一系列称为工具箱的特定于应用程序的解决方案。对于大多数 MATLAB 用户来说非常重要，工具箱允许您学习和应用专业技术。工具箱是 MATLAB 函数（M 文件）的综合集合，可扩展 MATLAB 环境以解决特定类别的问题。可用工具箱的领域包括信号处理、控制系统、神经网络、模糊逻辑、小波、仿真等。